Beautiful charts JTH. Easy to read and understand. Speaks to great communications skills.You should be an teacher.
FS
Jason, did I understand you correctly? JTH-ESD is only stepping out for 2 days (this Thur & Fri) and then back in? That doesn't sound long enough to make much of a difference unless your system really does know the future.
Are you trying to avoid the pre-holiday effect? I didn't think Columbus Day was one of the big ones.
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Beautiful charts JTH. Easy to read and understand. Speaks to great communications skills.You should be an teacher.
FS
FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
Thank you FS, that is very kind of you to say
Hi Cactus
ESD was offline the last few months, it was in the S-Fund, and this is the best path for it to take for the remainder of the month. It does not project future prices.
ALPAFS
With a fresh Double Top Breakout S&P 500 has now established a higher O-column, but it's very shallow, this is a "judgement call" it will stay in the G-Fund.
001.png
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
ALPAFS has switched over to a 4-box reversal system, this serves the purpose of smoothing out reversals, and eliminating columns with 3Xs & 3 Os. As a result, the previous column of Os is now removed and we now have a Long Tail Up, which on the scale means the most recent column of Xs have created a 4% (or greater) move.
S&P 500: Bullish w/Triple Top Breakout (5 Oct) w/Long Tail Up
W4500: Bullish w/Double Top Breakout (7 Oct) following a previous Long Tail Up
Transports: Bullish w/Double Top Breakout (5 Oct) now resting at a Double Top (following a previous Long Tail Up)
NASADAQ 100: Bullish w/Double Top Breakout (5 Oct) now resting at a Double Top (following a previous Long Tail Up)
001.png
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
Just FYI, I should have moved out on Wednesday, not Tuesday.
11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018
Simple comparison chart of the S&P 500 vs. the Wilishire 4500, shows a performance gap between the 2 indexes. Based on this chart, I would conclude the S-Fund has some catching up to do.
001.png
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
Wow, Thx for the chart JTH. With your arrows drawn, those up-down-(Repeat) patterns for both funds look so symmetrical since APR'15 in both amplitude and period.... barring some other cyclical or coinciding other factors, I'd suspiciously guess that somebodies with great influence/ leverage have made a lot of money since then going long then short (repeat) with good timing (?).<br><br><br>
<br>
... as in (+30% - (-25%)+30%-(-25%)+30% "so far" = ++140% (roughly). Maybe those bears and bulls aren't battling each-other but working both sides together "Bulears-Bearulls"?
ALPAFS
1) The yellow-arrow 1943-1978 price range, is a 25% to 50% retrace of the most recent column of Xs, this is where I'd expect the index to build its next base.
2) The red arrow is where ALPAFS exited at 1987. In theory, the system needs to take a lower entry than the previous exit, to take a profit over the index.
3) If the X range continues to expand, then the yellow arrow will overtake the red arrow, thus reducing the statistical edge needed to overtake the index.
4) The current X column is 29 boxes or 7.25% this is the 2nd largest of the 50 X columns displayed on this chart.
5) The largest X column on this chart is 41 boxes or 10.25% this price range was produced from Oct-Nov 2014
Here's the rub, ALPAFS did not exit based on this chart, it exited based on 20+ box reversals from W4500/Tran/NDX but those indexes ended up giving us a shallow retracement of 4-6 Os, then creating fresh Double Top Breakouts, thus they may have already begun to build their base. At this point, ALPAFS will not chase the rally, instead it will wait for a proper pullback to the 25% to 50% range. If the primary S&P 500 index does not give us the proper pullback, then it will chase on the next column of Xs.
001.png
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
JTH-ESD leaves the G-Fund today
IFT EoB 9-Oct S-Fund
Next IFT will enter G-Fund EoB 6 Nov
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
||
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
Bookmarks