Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Beautiful charts JTH. Easy to read and understand. Speaks to great communications skills.You should be an teacher.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Beautiful charts JTH. Easy to read and understand. Speaks to great communications skills.You should be an teacher.

FS

Thank you FS, that is very kind of you to say

Originally Posted by Cactus

Jason, did I understand you correctly? JTH-ESD is only stepping out for 2 days (this Thur & Fri) and then back in? That doesn't sound long enough to make much of a difference unless your system really does know the future.

Are you trying to avoid the pre-holiday effect? I didn't think Columbus Day was one of the big ones.

Hi Cactus

ESD was offline the last few months, it was in the S-Fund, and this is the best path for it to take for the remainder of the month. It does not project future prices.

ALPAFS

With a fresh Double Top Breakout S&P 500 has now established a higher O-column, but it's very shallow, this is a "judgement call" it will stay in the G-Fund.

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ALPAFS has switched over to a 4-box reversal system, this serves the purpose of smoothing out reversals, and eliminating columns with 3Xs & 3 Os. As a result, the previous column of Os is now removed and we now have a Long Tail Up, which on the scale means the most recent column of Xs have created a 4% (or greater) move.

S&P 500: Bullish w/Triple Top Breakout (5 Oct) w/Long Tail Up

W4500: Bullish w/Double Top Breakout (7 Oct) following a previous Long Tail Up

Transports: Bullish w/Double Top Breakout (5 Oct) now resting at a Double Top (following a previous Long Tail Up)

NASADAQ 100: Bullish w/Double Top Breakout (5 Oct) now resting at a Double Top (following a previous Long Tail Up)

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Just FYI, I should have moved out on Wednesday, not Tuesday.

Originally Posted by rktect1

Just FYI, I should have moved out on Wednesday, not Tuesday.

I see that... when to get back in though?

Simple comparison chart of the S&P 500 vs. the Wilishire 4500, shows a performance gap between the 2 indexes. Based on this chart, I would conclude the S-Fund has some catching up to do.

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Originally Posted by JTH

Based on this chart, I would conclude the S-Fund has some catching up to do.

Yes it does. Tomorrow or Tuesday hmmm

Wow, Thx for the chart JTH. &nbsp;With your arrows drawn, those up-down-(Repeat) patterns for both funds look so symmetrical since APR'15 in both amplitude and period.... barring some other cyclical or coinciding other factors, I'd suspiciously guess that somebodies with great influence/ leverage have made a lot of money since then going long then short (repeat) with good timing (?).<br><br>

Originally Posted by JTH

Simple comparison chart of the S&amp;P 500 vs. the Wilishire 4500, shows a performance gap between the 2 indexes. Based on this chart, I would conclude the S-Fund has some catching up to do. <br>
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001.png

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... as in (+30% - (-25%)+30%-(-25%)+30% "so far" = ++140% (roughly). Maybe those bears and bulls aren't battling each-other but working both sides together "Bulears-Bearulls"?

ALPAFS

1) The yellow-arrow 1943-1978 price range, is a 25% to 50% retrace of the most recent column of Xs, this is where I'd expect the index to build its next base.

2) The red arrow is where ALPAFS exited at 1987. In theory, the system needs to take a lower entry than the previous exit, to take a profit over the index.

3) If the X range continues to expand, then the yellow arrow will overtake the red arrow, thus reducing the statistical edge needed to overtake the index.

4) The current X column is 29 boxes or 7.25% this is the 2nd largest of the 50 X columns displayed on this chart.

5) The largest X column on this chart is 41 boxes or 10.25% this price range was produced from Oct-Nov 2014

Here's the rub, ALPAFS did not exit based on this chart, it exited based on 20+ box reversals from W4500/Tran/NDX but those indexes ended up giving us a shallow retracement of 4-6 Os, then creating fresh Double Top Breakouts, thus they may have already begun to build their base. At this point, ALPAFS will not chase the rally, instead it will wait for a proper pullback to the 25% to 50% range. If the primary S&P 500 index does not give us the proper pullback, then it will chase on the next column of Xs.

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JTH-ESD leaves the G-Fund today

IFT EoB 9-Oct S-Fund

Next IFT will enter G-Fund EoB 6 Nov