Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Originally Posted by OBXTrader

Thanks JTH - You've been a "Buy and Hold" for a while and I admire that strategy.

Serious question, do your charts indicate that this a good time of year for the buy and hold investor?

Originally Posted by OBXTrader

The first I have ever mentioned "Buy and Hold" and you eject to G Fund. It's like saying "Frau Blucher" in Young Frankenstein, just something one shouldn't say I suppose.

No worries, I've been slowly getting tuned back into the markets, I wasn't buy & holding, just ignoring the carnage of my under-performance

I'm just taking some gains off the table, I'll regroup and be back in this month

Originally Posted by JTH

Hey buddy what's up!

I'm aware of the statistical cycles for presidential years, I've read about them in the Trader's Almanac, but have not spent much time analyzing them.

Reason being, I don't track the DJI which goes back much further than my SPX data (which for me, goes back to 1950).

Using the S&P 500, this leaves us 15 Presidential cycles going back to 1952 I can't use 2012-2015 because the data isn't yet written.

Looking at the data, for October, year 3 appears to have an edge over the other years, but with so few data points, the results could easily be skewed

Attachment 35455

Thanks for getting that together. I just got interested in them a few years ago when I found this chart.

Its not too good for short term analysis but not bad to get a general direction. The movements in the market seem to match pretty close but the timing can be off quite a bit. Say a month or so. Its just the average over time.

1 Minute chart shows a gap at the open and 4 failures to confirm a close above 1988

001.png

Originally Posted by JTH

IFT EoB 5-Oct-2015, 100G

So with your exit today are you saying we won't continue higher after a breakout of the price range? Is this a Three Soldiers pattern and the movement is down with a higher open. Just wondering because I was expecting shorts to cover like tomorrow. Just thought I would ask the Chartman:

Originally Posted by Bquat

So with your exit today are you saying we won't continue higher after a breakout of the price range? Is this a Three Soldiers pattern and the movement is down with a higher open. Just wondering because I was expecting shorts to cover like tomorrow. Just thought I would ask the Chartman:

Hi BQ

Today's exit does not imply the markets won't go higher, I was able to watch the markets and felt confident we would finish the day with a solid close, so I chose to book profits.

Something else to consider, over the past 16,540 trading days, the S&P 500 has closed 5 consecutive positive days only 4.50% of the time, and 6 consecutive positive days only 2.45% of the time.

I'll be looking to get back in under 1960, we'll just have to see if it works out.

I wouldn't call it a textbook Three White Soldiers Pattern, it's more of a hybrid with the 1-Oct serving as a "pause" day. Either ways, there is serious strength behind the recent upwave

Originally Posted by JTH

Either ways, there is serious strength behind the recent upwave

Good news is good for the market, bad news is good for the market...

Originally Posted by JTH

Hey buddy what's up!

I'm aware of the statistical cycles for presidential years, I've read about them in the Trader's Almanac, but have not spent much time analyzing them.

Reason being, I don't track the DJI which goes back much further than my SPX data (which for me, goes back to 1950).

Using the S&P 500, this leaves us 15 Presidential cycles going back to 1952 I can't use 2012-2015 because the data isn't yet written.

Looking at the data, for October, year 3 appears to have an edge over the other years, but with so few data points, the results could easily be skewed

Attachment 35455

PRE-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS NO LOSERS IN 76 YEARS Investors should feel somewhat more secure going into 2015. There hasn't been a down year in the third year of a presidential term since war-torn 1939, Dow off 2.9%. The only severe loss in a pre-presidential election year going back 100 years occurred in 1931 during the Depression.

Hirsch, Jeffrey A. (2014-09-24). Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series) (Kindle Locations 417-420). Wiley. Kindle Edition.

REPOST: Had to redo the Presidential Cycle chart, it was off by a significant margin

Using 16 presidential cycles, across the S&P 500, in October, election year is the strongest month, while pre-election year (2015) is the weakest. Bear in mind this is for the month of October, not the entire year (as referenced by the Stock Trader's Almanac above).

2014 - Mnth - Presidential Cycles.png

ALPAFS moves over the the G-Fund, for the most part, the downtrend is broken, but we've yet to establish an uptrend.

001.png

Wednesday is Hump day

Wednesday is the best performing day of the week, with a 64% winning ratio and .64% average gains

Friday is the worst performing day of the week with a 36% winning ratio and -.51% average gains

2014 - Daily - DoW.png

JTH, nice exit yest. and good of you to inform ahead of time and state your reasoning. Wish you well.

Good evening

I've rebuilt the JTH-ESD system (Evolving Statistical Data)

We are entering a dead zone, so the system will leave the S-Fund and enter the G-Fund EoB Wednesday.

From there, the system will re-enter the S-Fund EoB Friday and remain there for the rest of October.

For JTH-ALPAFS (Advanced Logarithmic Point And Figure System)

The S&P 500 has created a higher high X-column, has created an O-column, but has yet to establish a higher low O-column, thus we have a minor outside trend. If the index can create a higher low O-column, then it will establish a minor uptrend with a higher high/low.

001.png