Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Big moves make big winners and big losers.

Congrats to those who either jumped in and caught the gains, or stayed in and off-sett the loses.

AGG triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown on the .05% box scale, but that was expected.

As you will attest, time in the market, not market timing, offers the greatest chance for investment success. One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is. We are in a generational stocks bull market - all in all the time. 2015 may duplicate the gains of 2013.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

As you will attest, time in the market, not market timing, offers the greatest chance for investment success. One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is. We are in a generational stocks bull market - all in all the time. 2015 may duplicate the gains of 2013.

Sorry Chief, but I have to disagree with you. That mantra is for the masses, and is espoused by the likes of Suzy Orman and her ilk. Although TA does not guarantee 100% success on every move, I'd much rather rely on my own skill at TA than go through another bear market and pray for a recovery.

Of course, for the vast majority of American morons, who would rather spend their time watching the boob toob instead of studying the markets, a buy-n-pray strategy may be their only hope.

I plan to work hard at what I do, and fully expect for that hard work to pay a bounty of dividends in the long term.

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Evening folks

AGG flips over to a sell, but is stuck in the middle between the -.55% price objective and the .54% reversal target. The TMF Bond ETF is at a major double top.

SPX flips over the a buy. SPXL confirms the buy, SPXS confirms the sell.

W4500 is within .08% of flipping over to a buy. TNA has flipped to a buy, TZA has flipped to a sell.

Within the .25% box sized frame of reference, both the Transports & NASADAQ 100 are lagging on this rally but did signal Low Pole Reversals today.

Attachment 31668

Fancy graphics. I like it!

Originally Posted by JTH

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Evening folks

AGG flips over to a sell, but is stuck in the middle between the -.55% price objective and the .54% reversal target. The TMF Bond ETF is at a major double top.

SPX flips over the a buy. SPXL confirms the buy, SPXS confirms the sell.

W4500 is within .08% of flipping over to a buy. TNA has flipped to a buy, TZA has flipped to a sell.

Within the .25% box sized frame of reference, both the Transports & NASADAQ 100 are lagging on this rally but did signal Low Pole Reversals today.

Attachment 31668

W4500 triggers a Bullish Signal Reversed (Double Top Breakout)

Attachment 31676

Originally Posted by JTH

W4500 triggers a Bearish Signal Reversed (Double Top Breakout)

And now the NASDAQ 100 triggers a Bearish Signal Reversed (Double Top Breakout)

Attachment 31682

Interesting Nasdaq seem to drop the most at the close as you posted, thanks JTH. My Euphoria meter triggered a bearish signal before the cutoff and I exited to the G Fund today. Will live to fight another day in January.

Originally Posted by JTH

And now the NASDAQ 100 triggers a Bearish Signal Reversed (Double Top Breakout)

Attachment 31682

Originally Posted by JTH

And now the NASDAQ 100 triggers a Bearish Signal Reversed (Double Top Breakout)

Attachment 31682

I think you've just confused all of us, or at least me. You sure you aren't a premium service?

Originally Posted by Birchtree

As you will attest, time in the market, not market timing, offers the greatest chance for investment success. One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is. We are in a generational stocks bull market - all in all the time. 2015 may duplicate the gains of 2013.

BT, If I didn't think the timing could be mastered, I would be all in all the time. What happened in 2008/2009 (38% drop or worse) taught me that you must pay attention and act to protect your money. Yes, I know we are in a bull market and if I had been buy and hold would have made money hand over fist last year and this year, but it is that fear of a 2008/2009 repeat,or worse that now has me paying attention to the market.

I am not yet proven on timing market.... still trying to figure it out, but my goal for 2015 is to stick the latest strateg I am working with....

Now, what happened Wednesday and Thursday was awesome. So, what indicator showed you that was going to happen precisely on those two days. I don't believe there was any tool that could predict it. We all had the feeling Santa was coming... and let us not forget, we still have next week to see what happens. But none of indicators I use (Slow Sto, MACD, RSI, divergences) said we were gonna get the huge increases on Wed/Thr. But lots of smart people on this sight may have, and we all know who they were.....so if you have an indicator that told you to get in on Tuesday... please share it. I would like to know---its worth GOLD...Was there an indicator or was it all gut feeling or knowledge of what would likely happen???

My gut instinct said I should jump in on Tuesday because it looked like we were nearing a bottom, but not certain. But more importantly, I knew the Fed was going to make an announcement and we knew it probably was gonna be good news. But again, with the Fed you can just never be sure. But it felt like it would be good news. So what did I do? Stuck to my strategy (surprisingly because I keep not following it...yes.. need to kick myself a little). But this time I stuck to it to lessen risk in case it continued downward cuz at that point nothing said it was going up (and I wanted to avoid jumping in too early and riding it half down like I did last time)...So, when Wednesday hit, I knew the bottom had been hit on Tuesday. Yes... after the fact.... a very good indication/confirmation of a possible bottom. Time to get in.

But this is the problem, it is hard to tell when we hit bottom. That is a major skill to be able to know when the bottom has hit. A few folks on this site hit it on the mark---AWESOME for them. But I am not aware a technical indicator that marked the spot (X). So unless someone has the MAGIC combination of indicators that can be used to spot that, we definitely need some luck, judgment, good indicators and especailly taking a calculated RISK, plus gotta have the gonads to stick that landing!! So I'm working on growing some !! lol Will see..... A New Happy Year awaits!!

Best Wishes to all!!