Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Based off Wednesday's price action, I would expect there's another .05-.10% to lose in the F-Fund (not counting today's price action), anyone who chooses to exit today may want to take this into account.

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For the most part, I must be doing something right, since the 7-day C-Fund entry, it is the best performing of the 5 TSP funds.

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MARKET UPDATE

The bad news is that AGG, W4500 & TRAN have Bearish price objectives, the good news is that all 5 have columns of Xs. If you look at the table below, AGG is just .10% away and W4500 .19% away from a bullish reversal.

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Originally Posted by JTH

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For the most part, I must be doing something right, since the 7-day C-Fund entry, it is the best performing of the 5 TSP funds.

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MARKET UPDATE

The bad news is that AGG, W4500 & TRAN have Bearish price objectives, the good news is that all 5 have columns of Xs. If you look at the table below, AGG is just .10% away and W4500 .19% away from a bullish reversal.

Attachment 31224

Nice work JTH. A few days ago AGG looked bullish. Since then it's flat-lined, but if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, it still seems like it wants to climb, but just can't make up it's mind. Kinda like this puzzle of a market.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Nice work JTH. A few days ago AGG looked bullish. Since then it's flat-lined, but if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, it still seems like it wants to climb, but just can't make up it's mind. Kinda like this puzzle of a market.

Thanks, I agree, the Bond market price action has been perplexing, and hasn't given us the definitive "traditional" answers we've been looking for with stocks. I'm feeling good about the PnF, feeling like it's finally getting tuned into the markets. It's still evolving, but it is closer to getting it dialed in, and hopefully folks will be able to understand the analysis. Reflecting back on this year's mistakes, I think I have the TA skills down, but what I've been lacking is the dedication and focus, it's very difficult to stay motivated with such a time-consuming task. This is why I've been using PnF, so that less time can be spent, while the same quality of analysis is getting accomplished.

Ok you got me listening.

Over the past 12 days, the C-Fund has closed down once.

On Friday, the Wilshire 4500 triggered a Double Top Breakout with a 1095.86 price objective, which is 4.83% from current price levels. The Index put in a strong opening by adding 4Xs, but retraced more than half the gains into the close. We've been talking about this a lot, the small caps are underperforming and I find it concerning for the overall health of the markets. When large caps outperform small caps during a positive week, this is not what I consider to be normal operating conditions. For the week, the C-Fund gained 1.21% while the S-Fund gained just .65%

For the Bulls, we are working through our 1st higher X, and as we can see from the red horizontal lines, there is some overhead resistance to deal with from the July & September highs. Just how we deal with these levels could show us a great deal about just how far these markets can go.

A performance divergence between small & large caps can only go for so long, before the Indexes need to equalize with one another. For the Bears, we would need to break & close below 1030, this is where we have a 15-min double bottom from 19 Nov and a bottom O where a Double Bottom Breakdown price reversal gets triggered at 1028.31

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With China's rate cut, Pre-markets led the markets into a strong opening. Friday, SPX gapped up on the open, trickling down, then defending the open gap at the 2057 level then recapturing half the day's gains.

Typically, with a gap up, followed with a topping tail (where the tail is greater than 50% of the body) it can be seen as a strong warning of a top, especially when we're already at 52-week highs. But with the trail of price consolidation behind us, we may have done enough to prove these markets are ready to stair-step up into the next level.

For the Bulls, we are working through the 2nd higher X, and may encounter some overhead resistance in the 2095 area, but if we can get above 2084, then I see no reason why we wouldn't tag 2100 by year's end. On 10 Nov I stated " The S&P 500 adds another X to the column today, for the upside I'll be looking for 2085, for the downside 1984, we may need to hit the latter before the next leg up." Those levels were based off rudimentary Fibonacci projections, thus far, I believe those projections are still on target.

For the Bears, we would need to break & close below 2040, this is where we have a 15-min double bottom from 19 Nov and a 50% retracement of the most recent column of Xs. But I consider this to be expected price action and a bit too shallow to be called a decent pullback. A Double Bottom Breakdown price reversal would get triggered at 1997.

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Reminder: The markets are closed on Thursday, with a half-day on Friday. TSP will be closed on Thursday 28 November

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Friday, AGG gapped up on the open, leaving an unfilled gap for the second day in a row, with roughly an 18-day trading range, we have failed to breakout/down with conviction, currently falling just .07% short of triggering a Double Top Breakout.

For the Bulls, we can see we have 2 double tops, indicating prices have been stair-stepping with the 2nd higher X.

For the Bears we have a lower low, indicating the trading range could be expanding, which is supported by the severely compressed Bollinger bands, where Bollinger Band width is roughly at a 1-year low.

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Originally Posted by JTH

Friday, AGG gapped up on the open, leaving an unfilled gap for the second day in a row, with roughly an 18-day trading range, we have failed to breakout/down with conviction, currently falling just .07% short of triggering a Double Top Breakout.

For the Bulls, we can see we have 2 double tops, indicating prices have been stair-stepping with the 2nd higher X.

For the Bears we have a lower low, indicating the trading range could be expanding, which is supported by the severely compressed Bollinger bands, where Bollinger Band width is roughly at a 1-year low.

Interesting look at the leveraged Bond ETF TMF

We can see there is a similar price consolidation to AGG, in this case we show both a Quadruple Top and Quadruple Bottom with a .75% 6-Box 4.50% price range.

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When do you sleep?