Thread: JTH's Account Talk

JTH,

Several months ago you turned me on to the inverse relationship between the index funds we trade and TZA. I follow it on a regular basis now, thanks! The reason for this post today is todays TZA action. It raises some red flags for me and I was wondering what your thoughts were. Please check it out and let me (us) know your thoughts.

Thanks!

Comment on this also:

Originally Posted by Mcqlives

JTH,

Several months ago you turned me on to the inverse relationship between the index funds we trade and TZA. I follow it on a regular basis now, thanks! The reason for this post today is todays TZA action. It raises some red flags for me and I was wondering what your thoughts were. Please check it out and let me (us) know your thoughts.

Thanks!

I wouldn't play TZA at these levels, from the 15-May top to 1-Jul bottom, price has failed to capture a 50% retracement, it is also tracking weaker when compared to TNA (meaning their true inverse relationship is slightly off.)

Originally Posted by Bquat

Comment on this also:

Transports are overbought both within the 125-day channel and the bollinger bands, the hourly has formed a middle-finger-formation, I would expect a pullback from here, which should fare significantly worse for the small caps.

Long story short, this market is lethargic, when the indexes are not in agreement, it should be seen as a warning sign, this is classic summertime action.

JTH, Please see article/chart below... I see an overdue 4% correction coming. Thoughts ? Thanks.

Why the S&P rally is nothing to get freaked out about, in one graph - The Tell - MarketWatch

Originally Posted by Dutchy

JTH, Please see article/chart below... I see an overdue 4% correction coming. Thoughts ? Thanks.

Why the S&P rally is nothing to get freaked out about, in one graph - The Tell - MarketWatch

Just for the record, market wise, I've been in a fairly pissy & disgusted mood this month (more so than usual)

There isn't a whole lot TSP folks can do under these conditions to outperform the markets. Low-Volatility-Trickle-Up followed with High-Volatility-Surge-Down is difficult to play, especially if your IFT is just slightly off and you end up losing 5 days of gains in 1 day. Like it or not, this is the market we a dealing with, there will be no shortage of folks calling for a correction, when it does happen, more folks will be caught in it than not.

I have no desire to be in this market, that lack of desire is only outweighed by my lack of desire to take a loss.

Are you planning a move to G/F? I'm only down 0.8% for this trade, I could take that in lieu of greater downside. Up 10% for the past 12 mo., abt 3.6 for this CY.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Are you planning a move to G/F? I'm only down 0.8% for this trade, I could take that in lieu of greater downside. Up 10% for the past 12 mo., abt 3.6 for this CY.

I've already held the position longer than expected, from here it's day-to-day or fly-by-wire.

Originally Posted by JTH

I've already held the position longer than expected, from here it's day-to-day or fly-by-wire.

JTH,

Based on the fact that we are in the end-of-month period; and since you have held your position to date, are you planning to go to G or F today (or sell), for example, and perhaps buy-in the next few days?

Alright folks, I don't mean to offend, but I'm not going to answer these G/F questions, I simply won't speculate on something I cannot see. Under these conditions, I'd rather just sit back and evaluate the price action until something warrants my attention.

On a lighter note, I have a cabin off a lake reserved for a few days, I'm going to spend some time relaxing with my wife and children, take out the old 11' aluminum canoe, stick a rod in the water, drink some beer, and disconnect somewhat from the cloud, those are my plans for the immediate future.

In the meantime, here is 4-hour chart of W4500 outlining a beautiful rising parallel price channel, watch those levels of support and resistance on the horizontal & diagonal axis, and watch the volume on IWM, they tell the story.

1060, 1050, 1040, 1030, 1020, 1015, 1000

Attachment 29686

[QUOTE]JTH....Alright folks, I don't mean to offend, but I'm not going to answer these G/F questions, I simply won't speculate on something I cannot see. Under these conditions, I'd rather just sit back and evaluate the price action until something warrants my attention.

On a lighter note, I have a cabin off a lake reserved for a few days, I'm going to spend some time relaxing with my wife and children, take out the old 11' aluminum canoe, stick a rod in the water, drink some beer, and disconnect somewhat from the cloud, those are my plans for the immediate future.

In the meantime, here is 4-hour chart of W4500 outlining a beautiful rising parallel price channel, watch those levels of support and resistance on the horizontal & diagonal axis, and watch the volume on IWM, they tell the story.


[ATTACH]


Enjoy your respite, JTH, and thank you for your insights...

Originally Posted by JTH

On a lighter note, I have a cabin off a lake reserved for a few days, I'm going to spend some time relaxing with my wife and children, take out the old 11' aluminum canoe, stick a rod in the water, drink some beer, and disconnect somewhat from the cloud, those are my plans for the immediate future.

I like your immediate future.