Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Well, 1 day does not a pullback make, for me, what was missing was upside confirmation from bonds. Sellers took profits, but that's to be expected after such a strong run-up. The truth may be told on this next rundown, best advise I have is to follow the winners who are in tune with the market's conditions. I wish I had more to offer, and it's not that I don't, it's more that I'm trying very hard to use the 1 IFT I have to the utmost of its ability. Sometimes not taking a risk is still a risk, and in my situation this has been the case.

I have been reading a book called The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure it's an extensive read and with it, I've been spending some time analyzing and adapting it to work within the TSP realm. For the major indexes, I have been evaluating .25% box PnF charts. When you convert box size into percentage, it tends to equalize charts with each other and makes them easier to compare side-by-side. What the chart below is showing you, is a series of lower highs. For the bulls, if we can pierce the red line and breakout, then I believe the markets can surge further. But as it stand now, if you count from the highest X, you can see we have 4 lower highs, with the last column of Xs yet to be determined. Here's the thing, with the yellow box at 1929, we triggered a triple bottom, followed by a double bottom at 1905 and another triple bottom at 1863. This is a great deal of long-term technical damage my experience does not give me the capacity to ignore.

Attachment 30779

I know you'll excuse and forgive me if I don't believe a word of it. I'm in a mood to be buying.

the S&P is right there at your red line resistance just after the open.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

the S&P is right there at your red line resistance just after the open.

Yes it is

Attachment 30784

Originally Posted by JTH

Yes it is

Attachment 30784

JTH,

As per your chart, the bearish price objective of 1933.51 was met. Can you please update the SPX chart to see where it might be going from here? Tia.

Originally Posted by airlift

JTH,

As per your chart, the bearish price objective of 1933.51 was met. Can you please update the SPX chart to see where it might be going from here? Tia.

Hi Airlift

First off, thank you.

You always challenge me with questions that force me to confirm/deny the positions I take. I do not believe a new price objective will be triggered until the next double top breakout at 1968.2, or double bottom breakdown at 1817.1 Now I realize this is a huge range, but this is a PnF thing. There are two types of price objective methods, one is the vertical count, the other the horizontal count and I'm not 100% sure how stockcharts.com crunches their numbers, because there is some art involved alongside the science.

One of the problems I've encountered is that price objective formulas are based off of set price-sized boxes, where percentage-based boxes vary based on price (the bigger the price, the bigger the box size and each box size is different.) In my studies, a common theme I have found is that I can project a price, but I cannot predict how it will get there. If I induce Fibonacci theory into the PnF charts, it leads me to believe that on the downside, 1895 gets tested because it's a 50% retracement. On the upside, past 2018, 2093 is the next Fib projection, but I believe you can round this off to 2100.

Having said all this, speaking to just the S&P 500 is not a fair assessment of the overall conditions of the markets. Some of the other indexes are fairing much better, so those variables should be taken into consideration when determining how to best position yourself within TSP.

Attachment 30798

Still here, still sucking wind, still waiting for the next open-ended opportunity. The good news is that I do nothing half-azz, when I'm wrong, I'm very wrong. At this point I've just been stubborn, but as we approach the end of the month, it will be a matter of where the wave is and if I'll decide to use the last IFT to enter stocks. The markets look great, everything is firing on all cylinders, I essentially have no valid reason not to enter, except for the fact I want a lower price than my last exit.

When a strong and well-defined trendline gets broken, I generally expect to see a stall before (1) we head back down, or (2) we overtake the line, that is precisely where I think we are at the moment.

Attachment 30863

Best of trades...Jason

I hope we go down from here...

i agree with your 'full throttle' approach. i massively blew this latest market opportunity due to lack of patience on entry. i was able to get out at about even on the trade, just exactly in time to miss additional gains. i too am looking for a lower entry price than my last exit. and i was wanting to pull that trigger before the end of the month. right now my gut says hold g, but my heart is screaming buy buy buy! the only thing i know for sure is, wherever the path leads godammit i'm gonna get there.

Originally Posted by JTH

Still here, still sucking wind, still waiting for the next open-ended opportunity. The good news is that I do nothing half-azz, when I'm wrong, I'm very wrong. At this point I've just been stubborn, but as we approach the end of the month, it will be a matter of where the wave is and if I'll decide to use the last IFT to enter stocks. The markets look great, everything is firing on all cylinders, I essentially have no valid reason not to enter, except for the fact I want a lower price than my last exit.

When a strong and well-defined trendline gets broken, I generally expect to see a stall before (1) we head back down, or (2) we overtake the line, that is precisely where I think we are at the moment.

Attachment 30863

Best of trades...Jason

JTH,

I think that you are doing fine. Your analysis is excellent. It's not your fault even when you make a choice that doesn't pan out. The way I see much of this is that when there were no p/c or hand held computers, traders used the PnF charts more frequently, but now traders have to contend with many additional influences that might be trumping their expected conclusions. This high frequency issue could be a big wedge to contend with. Thank you.

Here's the latest price performance for the TSP funds. Of note, we now have 5-years of data across all funds. The S-Fund is outperforming over the past 20 days, while the C-Fund is outperforming over the past 240 days (or 1-year)

Attachment 30909