Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

I really wish we had until 3-4pm to make our IFT. The system is so rigged against us.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

I really wish we had until 3-4pm to make our IFT. The system is so rigged against us.

FS

. Yea it's like playing cards with half the deck ughhhhh

Another higher intraday low today (2/4/16):

Partly on the heels of a baffling 3-day decline in the dollar/euro. Some serious weirdness is going on here. I still think the high for the month has been put in; the latest sketch of the S-fund shows the length of this latest bear-flag (since Jan 20) has now just about matched that of the 11 biz day flag of December 14-30 of last year. So the decline should start tomorrow and reach its nadir I'm guessing around February 12 since that's a Friday before a holiday and who wants to go into a Monday with empty pockets. Then its buy buy buy for the foolhardy.

Can a dead cat bounce more than a woodchuck chucks? We'll see.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Another higher intraday low today (2/4/16):

Partly on the heels of a baffling 3-day decline in the dollar/euro. Some serious weirdness is going on here. I still think the high for the month has been put in; the latest sketch of the S-fund shows the length of this latest bear-flag (since Jan 20) has now just about matched that of the 11 biz day flag of December 14-30 of last year. So the decline should start tomorrow and reach its nadir I'm guessing around February 12 since that's a Friday before a holiday and who wants to go into a Monday with empty pockets. Then its buy buy buy for the foolhardy.

Can a dead cat bounce more than a woodchuck chucks? We'll see.

What did I tell you? What did I tell you? What did I tell you?

Actually - I've made a lot of mostly wrong predictions. But perhaps better than random chance this time. I think this flush out will continue to new 52-week lows next week, fast and sure, and I will stick with next Friday (Feb 12) as the intermediate low; as Yellen goes before Congress earlier in the week and stays the course (data dependent, more rate hikes coming); That should put a sock in the talking heads. The carnage will hit both stocks and to a lessor but significant degree bonds as well, so gee (hint), what's the best short term option?

Just to back up your thoughts on the FED. Also saw that Fischer was jawboning the same stuff with a focus on "inflation".

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/

What's interesting is that for a service economy like ours, cheap oil prices and high employment are good for the economy (but not so much for the stock market). Wish the stock market reflected our economy better because things would be much easier to follow. The market is its own animal for sure.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Just to back up your thoughts on the FED. Also saw that Fischer was jawboning the same stuff with a focus on "inflation".

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/

What's interesting is that for a service economy like ours, cheap oil prices and high employment are good for the economy (but not so much for the stock market). Wish the stock market reflected our economy better because things would be much easier to follow. The market is its own animal for sure.

FS

The market will adjust to the economy...

I think we're headed there Boghie.....just another 50% loss on current stock value and we'll be close..

FS

As if anyone cares; I can barely log into the forum, no less see what anyone else is doing on the autotracker:

I'm absolutely sitting on my hands today and here are my reasons. Although the early price action is negative, it is only the second of what I believe will be a longer, much more significant, further decline continuing this week. You can see the ^VIX has not duplicated its recent highs (30+) in August 2015; but does match the most recent spike (January 2016). Volumes are moderate (weak IMO considering the volatility), so my conclusion is there is a "hoper" mentality out there in which many are buying in and then will bail out soon thereafter - meaning sometime before the close today until perhaps tomorrow morning if there is a deadcat bounce. Maybe, but it will be shortlived, difficult to time; hence, I want no part of that.

I also believe, on the emotional side, there is increasing dis-belief in anything that comes out of the yap of Draghi or the effect of further stimulus, or "the internet" regarding rumors of an "oil deal."

I think you're correct Amoeba. We have broken the SPX H&S pattern to the downside. So what that there was a 25 point rally in the late close....keeps buyers in the game....The low today was 1828. To me that says the trend is more downside.

Best of luck to all in your trading.

FS

Sell in February and go away until 2017 ......

Originally Posted by Lakebound

Sell in February and go away until 2017 ......

Naw, its not that bad:

There's a couple options. One could jump on the bandwagon and move into the F-fund, albeit late - and then wait for the comet to impact.

And by that - I mean darken the planet kind of selling. Gap created 3% at the open, and bottoms out at something like minus 6-8% for the day. Put that SPY down at 1,650 in a heartbeat. Shake those trees. Panic selling of 600, 700 million SPY shares. People jumping out windows. Despair.

That's worth buying into. And the reason? Really - this isn't that much of a dip; sure - it's 25% in the S-fund, but only maybe 12-14% in the C-fund. Unemployment is down. Wages (if but by force of minimum wage implementation) are up. Oil, well hell - we shouldn't be screwing up the planet anyway; maybe reduced demand through alternative energy is the way out of increased supply. Create some other market that is less dirty.

I'm still entertaining the 1,800 thereabouts range; but increasingly thinking I was significantly overoptimistic as that day quickly approaches. May give it a go. But less enthusiastic about jumping in with the recent pattern of water torture decline of %2-4/week, with 2 up days for every 3 bigger down days.