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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2029

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Market rocketed up at least 8% since its bottom and I had no positive part of that:

    And here we sit at a trailing EPS of 23 in the SPY and what the heck went through the minds of people throwing all this money back in in October? Beats me. I have traders block right now and would love to finish the year in the green but I didn't see the last opportunity and I'm not seeing the next one, notwithstanding seasonality. What I do see are gaps below to be filled and potential retracement down at least 5%. But since when does that happen this time of year? I thought it would already - and then be poised for a santa rally but this isn't this year's pattern.

    Hence - I'm so completely confused I'm going to try a premium service for a while and see how that goes. I'll stop in from time to time.

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  3. #2030

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    The market dipped on modest volume and futures are fading. Stronger follow-thru (down) tomorrow (11/13/15) before the weekend, perhaps?

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  5. #2031

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Dinicti View Post
    I wonder if along the lines of W. Buffett that most traders can't beat S&P 500, perhaps account holders who are very active traders (2 standard deviations--upper 5%--in IFT) are less likely to do well. I am not stating you belong in that camp, I am just thinking aloud.
    Go look at the tracker and see how many IFTs the top 30 are making. Buy-and-hold won't get you a PBJ and a glass of milk.

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  7. #2032

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    The market dipped on modest volume and futures are fading. Stronger follow-thru (down) tomorrow (11/13/15) before the weekend, perhaps?
    I guessed right this time; on higher but still moderate volume; I'm also seeing some large leaders being sold off; hence - my instinct is for continued southward movement a few more percent next week; on bigger volume. Opportunity? Possibly.

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  9. #2033

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Oh my: Perhaps a little steeper decline now due on Monday; but if a typhoon/nuclear meltdown caused only a fairly short (albeit steep) blip, maybe this terrorism act effect will be brief as well. Could be opportunity? Maybe, maybe not.

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  11. #2034

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Oh my: Perhaps a little steeper decline now due on Monday; but if a typhoon/nuclear meltdown caused only a fairly short (albeit steep) blip, maybe this terrorism act effect will be brief as well. Could be opportunity? Maybe, maybe not.
    Make that a "not." (wrong again). Anyone who timed the last 5-6 sessions and made money, well - - - that would be breathtaking. I'm not one of them.


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  13. #2035

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    updrift ever since my last post, on seasonably weak volume so it means little:

    Next week....jobs report, and a likely tiny interest rate rise to follow (on 12/16). Weakness in Asia. My blindness continues (no prediction).

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  15. #2036

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Go look at the tracker and see how many IFTs the top 30 are making. Buy-and-hold won't get you a PBJ and a glass of milk.

    That is for this yr. I am just stating facts with a little opinion, but past 10 yr. annual return in S is 9.44%, a solid return. In 2013 S was +38.35% and the closest TSP Premium svc was nearly 10% away. Many people are smarter than the market, but I think Buffett is right that most people in the long run aren't.
    Current Allocation = 95%G, 5% F, Feb 4, 2016

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  17. #2037

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
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    3,024

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I read somewhere this week Amoeba that the Fed WON'T raise interest rates but will defer into 2016. Only reason I mention it is because I too have been in the mindset that it's 100% percent decided but then I thought...hmmmm...maybe not. Interesting to think about.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  19. #2038

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
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    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Dinicti View Post
    That is for this yr. I am just stating facts with a little opinion, but past 10 yr. annual return in S is 9.44%, a solid return. In 2013 S was +38.35% and the closest TSP Premium svc was nearly 10% away. Many people are smarter than the market, but I think Buffett is right that most people in the long run aren't.
    D: That would be me!!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  21. #2039

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I'll bet you Buffet knows this:

    if you had $1 and you had a annual return of 100% then you would have $2, but if you lost a dollar the next year (-50%), you would have $1 left. If you average 100% and -50%, you get an annual return of 25% per year, even though you made nothing.

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  23. #2040

    Join Date
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    1,454

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    I'll bet you Buffet knows this:

    if you had $1 and you had a annual return of 100% then you would have $2, but if you lost a dollar the next year (-50%), you would have $1 left. If you average 100% and -50%, you get an annual return of 25% per year, even though you made nothing.
    I'm pretty confident that Buffet would know that would result in a 0% cumulative annual average return.

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