Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

The 'C Fund' earned over 2% so far in May.

So avoiding some 'large' days only lost you 1.7% in May. What is the definition of 'large'? Like 8%, maybe 6%, even 4%, kinda 2%, or perhaps 1%. If you ain't in you cannot win. I think the biggest drop in May was a two day collapse of just over 1.5%. Oh, the humanity...

I lost 0.94% against the 'C Fund' in a very conservative allocation. Like you I guessed that seasonality and the FED and gubmint blabbing would affect the market negatively. But since I sleuthed it was a guess I did not get completely out of the market or try to time 1% moves. I figured even a massive 0.25% move in the FED rate would not result in a 10% market correction.

Amoeba, this is a normal market. It is neither booming or collapsing. It should be treated as a normal market.

This is not normal. P/Es of 18 in the SPY is not normal. Interest rates of 0.25% overnight bank-bank loans for 9 years is not normal. Interest rates have been too low far too long and it is potentially coming to the end of that. European markets are trading lower on thin volume today (memorial day); I am guessing flat to down this week.

Not feeling so bad about my seat on the sidelines; the drift to resistance at 2110 continues; but on moderate volume/volatility; I expect it to be broken next week - not sure if it will be a one day pony or prolonged - could be an opportunity for those with the stomach for it.

If I were contrarian, I'd be jumping in. I heard last night that IMF attorneys have found some way to continue the Greece talks and delay debt payment until the end of June. That is very interesting because it provide some running room for June. The other big issue for me is that we really haven't seen any bear flags waving. Lower highs and lower lows haven't presented themselves yet which keeps us in a bull market. I'm going to watch Monday's action then decide. Best of luck in your investing.

FS

Not liking the way it looks this morning (6/1/15); holding off doing anything.

I'm with you!! I held off also.

Tightroping on what appears to be resistance at 2,100; can't tell if it will bounce or fall. Creep up in the ^VIX the past few days in the opening hours but it settles after that. Wasn't quite able to pull the trigger today (6/2/15) either. Continued tough call. It's as if something is going to happen but it isn't happening.

I'm all in today (6/4/15); down on good volume, as well as yesterday for EFA. Hope my timing is on for this one.

Hope it works out. I stayed put in my L Income account. I figured it was low risk no matter what outcome tomorrow since it's only 25% invested. I was tempted to up the risk to L2020 which would be my likely next move. I bought on the last day of May and question the wisdom of that, but it's a long month and I have two IFT's.

Instead I bought some ETF's near session lows (which did nothing) and bought in my 401k.

Originally Posted by amoeba

I'm all in today (6/4/15); down on good volume, as well as yesterday for EFA. Hope my timing is on for this one.

Well, that IFT sucked - stuck 45% in I-fund and it hits a two-month low the first day following; the rest of it (35%C, 20%S) treading water. Man - the market cut and diced that 50EMA on the EFA like butter and then some. I'd like to stay in for awhile - but may have to reallocate with my 2nd IFT if this I-fund flop continues much more. Did NOT see today's (6/5/15) action coming. Another 0.5% down the tubes on my annual return in the blink of an eye.

RATZ!

Yep, it will hurt me all over the place too.

Well, I did as I mentioned, went into L2020 COB today (Friday). I always say I am going to take the long view and many times I do not live up to what I say.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Well, that IFT sucked - stuck 45% in I-fund and it hits a two-month low the first day following; the rest of it (35%C, 20%S) treading water. Man - the market cut and diced that 50EMA on the EFA like butter and then some. I'd like to stay in for awhile - but may have to reallocate with my 2nd IFT if this I-fund flop continues much more. Did NOT see today's (6/5/15) action coming. Another 0.5% down the tubes on my annual return in the blink of an eye.

RATZ!