Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Originally Posted by amoeba

HOW DARE I? (saw JTH's move earlier this week, questioned it, held, and taking my lumps accordingly)

Lol, you know everything I know, we're both looking at the same information, we just see it differently.

What I'm seeing is ^VIX >20EMA, which, over the past 2 years, has been superceded by a greater ^VIX of at least 30%; it can take as little as 2 days to peak or as much as 3 weeks. Hence, I will not buy back in (IFT) today.

I'm not doing so well this month; will not lose as much as the C-fund (if current prices hold today); but not well. This isn't advice for anyone - as if history indicates I'm not the one who should be listened to or followed.

I try.

Originally Posted by amoeba

What I'm seeing is ^VIX >20EMA, which, over the past 2 years, has been superceded by a greater ^VIX of at least 30%; it can take as little as 2 days to peak or as much as 3 weeks. Hence, I will not buy back in (IFT) today.

I'm not doing so well this month; will not lose as much as the C-fund (if current prices hold today); but not well. This isn't advice for anyone - as if history indicates I'm not the one who should be listened to or followed.

I try.

I agree....things are not setting up to give me a warm fuzzy about the markets going up. As much as I would like to buy this dip I am not confident enough to do it. Staying G for another day at least.

Rising stair-step pattern in ^VIX continues and remains >20EMA; portends possibly further spike in volatility and drop in major indices; hence no IFT today.

Volatility continuing to create new patterns; 20 EMA cross violated, did not exceed; bought in on a guess yesterday and working out so far. Going skiing for a week and not gonna look at the internet or newspaper the whole time; remains to be seen if I will bail before the plane leaves sunday am or stay all in (as of 3/26/15 COB). Besides that, the EFA 20EMA is closing in on the 50EMA; so maybe the bear is getting beaten finally there.

My short term goals are:

-get back in pository
-beat the G fund
-beat the F fund

Anything beyond that would be gravy. A negative year would be real disappointing; I've had only one in 23 and I didn't like it.

Goal #1 (pository) achieved; Goal #2 (beat the G-fund) achieved and then lost:

I'm starting to see another 6-month pattern in which the ^VIX tends to spike sharply if/when it falls to around or below 13; will look to this as an intermediate exit point; otherwise stay the course (100% equities) for now.

Well:

Looks like my complacency trigger was hit late today (^VIX closed @ 13.09), when I couldn't act on it with today's IFT. I'll definitely have my finger on the trigger to go to the sidelines if equities gap up tomorrow (4/10/15). Could just as easily gap down 1.5% or move sideways.

Hard to say.

You would have gone to G Fund if you had the chance today? The April move is better than the first three months. At IFT deadline market was in decline, my research which I posted showed S&P would do well today but that was not apparent.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Well:

Looks like my complacency trigger was hit late today (^VIX closed @ 13.09), when I couldn't act on it with today's IFT. I'll definitely have my finger on the trigger to go to the sidelines if equities gap up tomorrow (4/10/15). Could just as easily gap down 1.5% or move sideways.

Hard to say.

Stepped to the sidelines on the heels of a set of low-volume/low-volatility days approaching the year's high in the SPY; reasons are:

Seasonality (expect some mid-month consolidation after trading day 7 in April); Earnings (hard to say, financials reporting early next week); and the high P/E (18) in the SPY; when I go back in I will probably reallocate more heavily to I-fund, although the leading funds have changed month-month this year.

Best month of the year for me; closing in on the C-fund.

I went to L Income. If I am wrong and markets climb, it's better than kicking myself in the G Fund. If they decline, well I took 70% less downside risk off the table from L2050 (I think that math is right). I still have an IFT to rejoin a bull move up or buy a significant dip without much damage or if nothing really happens I can chose to go into May fully invested in L2050 again. It was all risk management since 2010 I can't contribute to TSP, I am often too conservative. Hope that makes sense.

Nothing wrong with ringing the cash register, did it two other accounts yesterday too.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Stepped to the sidelines on the heels of a set of low-volume/low-volatility days approaching the year's high in the SPY; reasons are:

Seasonality (expect some mid-month consolidation after trading day 7 in April); Earnings (hard to say, financials reporting early next week); and the high P/E (18) in the SPY; when I go back in I will probably reallocate more heavily to I-fund, although the leading funds have changed month-month this year.

Best month of the year for me; closing in on the C-fund.

Was not out long (~4 biz days, back in ~4/15/15), reweighted heavily into I-fund, got creamed on a big down day, then whipsawed up to a 2% gain this month on current extremes (lows) in volatility near ^VIX of 12.2 as I speak (1 pm EDT 4/24/15):

Jumped over the F-fund; but still under the median of the tracker by a good bit. My sentiment is high (which with low volatility is a bad sign for the market); anything north of 0.5% more before the end of month and I will consider lightening up.