Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Ummm: A washout upcommeth; this is a really huge Friday - over 120 million SPY by noon; resistence at 1,930. Eerily reminiscent of January 31, which weakened on high volume, and was followed by bloodletting the following monday.

So I think the range here for COB 10/14/14 is somewhere on the order of 1,860 - 1,950; hence, downside risk going long over the weekend is somewhat greater than upside. However, there is some profit-taking in bonds, which may be taking cash to invest next week, sooooooooo, it's a judgement call.

Hence. Nay on my second IFT right now. Ain't feelin like I missed out.....yet.

Seeya next week.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Ummm: A washout upcommeth; this is a really huge Friday - over 120 million SPY by noon; resistence at 1,930. Eerily reminiscent of January 31, which weakened on high volume, and was followed by bloodletting the following monday.

So I think the range here for COB 10/14/14 is somewhere on the order of 1,860 - 1,950; hence, downside risk going long over the weekend is somewhat greater than upside. However, there is some profit-taking in bonds, which may be taking cash to invest next week, sooooooooo, it's a judgement call.

Hence. Nay on my second IFT right now. Ain't feelin like I missed out.....yet.

Seeya next week.

Hey - - - - who put the bleach in the wash? (I watch, see the market approach my downside number on tuesday, wednesday pulls even, so I put in 25% (losing confidence), thinking I would pull some coin and what, you say? another 2% plus down? Actually, my goal was to make an IFT where the market DID NOT DROP AT LEAST 30 PTS IN THE S&P THE VERY NEXT DAY).

I guess I'll be joining most of you guys in dreaded negatory today. Screw this. I'm bailing. I'll make a few more IFT's for posterity but this market is so severely overbought with a trailing PE of 17 in the SPY that it could go another 100 pts in a heartbeat (to 1,750). 8/10 trading days down, and not becoming more common.

.....one of two things are happening:

a) the market has reached bottom; or

b) the market is changing from bull to bear.


Yesterday, the S- and F- funds trimmed my loss; but the real test here will come at such time when (if) there is a positive turn....last time.....and we're talking a week ago, that 1.75% increase was a one-day pony followed by extremely heavy selling.

The Fed speak has started; well, from one very dovish member; but I don't hear anything else (about more QE). Especially from Europe. So if there is an intermediate rally, it may not last very long.

Very tough call for the rest of this month.

Very uncertain: Still losing money this month.......but not anywhere near as much as if I would have stayed in at my kamikaze move into equities at 1998 on 9/30 (bailing at 1968 on 10/1, into F for a day). I didn't see F-fund picking up so much this month, and still scratching my head on it since QE is going to zero at the end of October (or is it?). So I'm an observer right now, out of IFTs, and waiting to see what happens next week.

I would be very surprised to see much bounce on earnings. Those results are fairly well known and beats are expected on most of them (like Apple). This won't be news. Some of the fluff bigs is being shaken out or will be soon (e.g., NFLX, AMZN) but OTOH the market is still temporarily oversold short term - today's relief was not large or on extremely heavy volume.

Hence, I see monday as volatile, but closing relatively flat and, therefore, confusing. Tuesday I think will be another leg down but not below this weeks lowest levels. Can't think beyond that.

Well, you're a lot better on this past two weeks than I am. I'm down about 5%, the only good thing is that I'm in if we get any kind of a rebound!

Now's the time to say "I told you so"!

But, I think I have the patience to wait.

dave

Originally Posted by ssdave

Well, you're a lot better on this past two weeks than I am. I'm down about 5%, the only good thing is that I'm in if we get any kind of a rebound!

Now's the time to say "I told you so"!

But, I think I have the patience to wait.

dave

I'm not telling you so......I think you have at least 50:50 of getting another +3% before the end of month. However, I really do believe there is an incredible number of "hopers" out there, thinking the Fed will delay the end to QE. If that get's extended, yet again, indefinitely - then you are looking at getting everything back and then some.

OTOH - if the QE coffin is truely nailed shut and buried in dirt; I couldn't tell you where the bottom of the impact crater would be.

2001: A Space Odyssey #3 Movie CLIP - Hal 9000 (1968) HD - YouTube

Made a late two-time move 60% into C/S; seems to be paying off so far........I plan to wait this out till post-turkey day; I have a feeling that some of this is post-election hoopla buying only mentality; and there aren't even mildly foreseeable dips in the near term....unless of course....everyone realizes that stocks are as grossly overpriced as they ever have been, and there's some panic selling. I just don't see that happening (again, it did twice already) before the bird is served and maybe not even after.

Looking back - I was near 3% in mid-June; a few overstated, and ill-timed, moves, set me back.

I recovered my -5% and then made my 3% and got out just when you were getting in. We're moving in opposites of each other.

I think your plan to stay in until at least after Thanksgiving is good, as long as you have the patience to wait. Might see a dip between now and then, but should recover quickly; if a person tries to get out on the dip, will miss the recovery too.

I'm actually hoping for a bit of a dip, I've got a goal written in for both C and S in my tracking spreadsheet, if we reach there, I'll jump back in. If not, I'll probably sidestep 1 to 1 1/2% profit before I give up and buy again.

Good Luck!
dave

Amoeba,

You have almost reached the inflation adjustment for 2014!!! Since November 7 your account has grown by almost 1% - more than doubling the previous ten months. Glory Be!!!

But today you are bailing out of equities just as the most statistically beneficial time of the year is kicking in. I am confused. What are you seeing...

Originally Posted by Boghie

Amoeba,

You have almost reached the inflation adjustment for 2014!!! Since November 7 your account has grown by almost 1% - more than doubling the previous ten months. Glory Be!!!

But today you are bailing out of equities just as the most statistically beneficial time of the year is kicking in. I am confused. What are you seeing...

I see nothing, just seasonality, and the two days after thanksgiving friday are typically the worst. The bail before friday's dip was nothing more than impluse luck - there appears to have been selling - maybe program selling - linked to oil prices. Going to wait a short time and evaluate to see what happens from here. I have no prediction.

I am still seeing nothing:

There are a few, small scenarios in which I could have cut and run with some profits this month; but overall indices remain short-term range bound. I suppose I will look for a seasonal entry point somewhere around the third week this month.