Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

Not a moonshot; but the 4 day string from 1,865 (or 980 in the S-fund) is broken - on low volume, and very low volatility; the newsfront has potential further QE by the ECB; but that's about all showing of interest.

I'm out for a few days at least; 10-yr note yields cresting a 1yr low so out of AGG as well - I'd like to see the S-fund test 980 again some time in June. Closing in on 3% for the year and staying in the 200-300 rank at least for today.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Not a moonshot; but the 4 day string from 1,865 (or 980 in the S-fund) is broken - on low volume, and very low volatility; the newsfront has potential further QE by the ECB; but that's about all showing of interest.

I'm out for a few days at least; 10-yr note yields cresting a 1yr low so out of AGG as well - I'd like to see the S-fund test 980 again some time in June. Closing in on 3% for the year and staying in the 200-300 rank at least for today.

Just one word for this market - OVERBOUGHT - I expect the rally to continue up the ECB (expected to be further easing of interest rates there) and May jobs (who knows?) next week, then selling into the news - depending on what that news actually is.

More news...

The San Diego Padres beat the Chicago White Sox yesterday 4 to 1.

Some more news...

Some people will have jobs in May, some will not. Some obsolete bureaucrat in Europe will do something, most will not

Even more important news...

The S&P 500 moved up 0.18% on Friday. The S&P 500 could drop 0.18% Monday. In either case I will swill a good beer and forget about it.

Amoeba,

The S&P500 has grown by over 200% since March of 2009. By trying to time the market and being exceptionally risk adverse you are up maybe 12%. Therefore, you are -190% over the past five years. Now, if one is risk adverse one might hold an allocation that gained 100% since March 2009. You would be even. And, if you held that same allocation through 2008 than you would be up maybe 80%. Not bad, eh.

But, there is some bureaucrat in China that is doing something.

Get away from the bureaucrats Amoeba. Run, don't walk. Businesses are in business to grow their business. Yup, sometimes they plop - but most of the time they succeed. And, you are not even allowed to bet on a single Enron. Have something in the market (at least 30%) so you can gain when the rapacious 1%ers greedily grind on their victims with better iPhones or whatever...

July was a good month - errr - last year: I have trader's block at the moment, unsure of the jobs report, and even less sure of how the market would react to a "beats" (faster taper?). As it is, there's still alot of excess cash, low volume, and low borrowing costs - so not much visible that might cause a (downward) reversal. I had an inkling to wade in this morning, but saw the open fade away with low-volume buying. Not sure what to make of the spread between the S- and C-funds. Other than the feeling that these will converge to each other at some point (as they have done the last 8-10 years).

I'm still here. Still ahead of the G-fund. Will choose my battles carefully.

Very quiet trading - little to go on these days - creeping up the tracker treading water (~#345 today - 7/29/14), only 50 out of 700 of us are beating the G-fund this month - alot of red ink. Feeling a bit froggy with 2 IFT's to go unused this month.

I say there is nothing in the last few days but mild anxiety leading into the fed meeting and jobs report; won't have the fed minutes for a few weeks anyways. My bet is nobody will say or commit to anything or, better, the Fed will seize on some lame excuse to delay (or not accelerate) the taper. Like the drop in existing home sales. Or - just some vague statement about too much slack in unemployment picture or some such.

This could result in a bounce.....not much.....but if it's soon, I can cash out and wait for the real McCoy (can't call it a correction, because I don't believe it will reach 10+% this calender year) - but it could be 4-5% down sometime before September.

Either way - I expect to be on the sidelines soon again to wait for that (the drop) - and eat my lunch on the results.

My last move in June was pretty darn weak handed - hope this works out better.

Oh yeah - I'm predicting a significant MISS on the jobs number (so delayed taper?). Somewhere under 200K.

Correction soon...

Originally Posted by Boghie

Correction soon...

care to elaborate?

I moved first into equities, and then out:

A mistake. There. I said it (and - unlike yo bama - I admit mine). I didn't see - and still don't - any catalyst for yesterday's drop (or today's followthrough). I felt the 25 pt drop in the SPY, and the 6/10 preceding negative days, was enough to make a large move on what I thought was moderate risk. And - I moved before the job report.

Unfortunately - selling began - first in Europe (perhaps contagion-based fears due to spanish bank failures), and spreading here in the morning - with futures down 30 points in the SPY pre-open. This appeared to settle in the mid-20-pt losses by the morning, and the question was whether the 50 EMA would be recaptured (1955 or so), or if it would turn lower. Too early to have that answer,I felt warranted to heed smarter advice - looked at what JTH was doing - and saw he had bailed the day prior to F. Good enough for me (wish I had seen that IFT before I made my first one, however). Today - I'm licking wounds - but healing to the tune of 0.4% rise in F-fund, vs. a 0.3% drop minimum in equities (C-fund), worse for I-fund.

August is typically a weak month (even last year). I'm going to sit - and look for a better opportunity for entry....it could be soon, if one of the indices can hold and build a base....or it could be much later - 3-4 weeks out or beyond.

In any case, fool's gold analogies aside, I'll be pulling close to even with the G-fund by COB (8/1/14). Out.

If someone can explain yesterday (8/1/14) how AGG can rise .4% and F-fund shares rise only .2%, I'm all ears. I need that psychological boost of pulling even with the G-fund. woo hoo.

Thx....maybe it will factored in monday.

Originally Posted by amoeba

If someone can explain yesterday (8/1/14) how AGG can rise .4% and F-fund shares rise only .2%, I'm all ears. I need that psychological boost of pulling even with the G-fund. woo hoo.

Thx....maybe it will factored in monday.

Bonds close before the markets do, therefore there is a bit carryover in price, sort of like how the I-Fund has a noon cutoff.