Thread: clester's Account Talk

Originally Posted by clester

Gut or not I am going to have to buy some stocks. My system calls for it. Today or tomorrow. I plan on 50 % buy. If we get new all time highs I will go 100% or if we get a good pull back. All funds will move to bull market rules soon so my system says to be in stocks at least 50%. I feel like May may be the month for a pull back but who knows.

I am losing ground to S&P. Now only up about 1% on S&P.

I am really new to monitoring my TSP. I understand the market goes up and down. However, the global economy is stinking, including US. However, since early March or so, we have had a crazy run-up. Everyone says that we are expecting a pull back...the question is when. Even in March people were saying we are ready for a pullback. Still nothing, really.
I guess what I am saying, is that I still have a lot to learn. I am mostly in G and F for awhile. Waiting for the market to tank. Never happened.
I am young and still have a lot to learn about investing in the market. I guess at my age, I should more aggressive with my retirement.

Originally Posted by lkatme

I am really new to monitoring my TSP. I understand the market goes up and down. However, the global economy is stinking, including US. However, since early March or so, we have had a crazy run-up. Everyone says that we are expecting a pull back...the question is when. Even in March people were saying we are ready for a pullback. Still nothing, really.
I guess what I am saying, is that I still have a lot to learn. I am mostly in G and F for awhile. Waiting for the market to tank. Never happened.
I am young and still have a lot to learn about investing in the market. I guess at my age, I should more aggressive with my retirement.

One thing to know is that the economy and stock market are 2 different things. The fed flooding the economy with cheap money makes stocks go up. Companies are borrow cheaply to invest in the company or just buy stock. So profits should rise. There are any number of external factors can also play in. Thats why i like to use technical analysis. It can give clues as to which way markets will go.

Read the following today regarding the drop today.

"Sentiment was fragile heading into today’s session after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding more stimulus measures, and turned sour after Carl Icahn said he sold out of his stake in Apple Inc."

Looks like one of those external factors is todays culprit...

Originally Posted by ravensfan

Read the following today regarding the drop today.

"Sentiment was fragile heading into today’s session after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding more stimulus measures, and turned sour after Carl Icahn said he sold out of his stake in Apple Inc."

Looks like one of those external factors is todays culprit...

Futures are up at the moment...

Originally Posted by lkatme

I am really new to monitoring my TSP. I understand the market goes up and down. However, the global economy is stinking, including US. However, since early March or so, we have had a crazy run-up. Everyone says that we are expecting a pull back...the question is when. Even in March people were saying we are ready for a pullback. Still nothing, really.
I guess what I am saying, is that I still have a lot to learn. I am mostly in G and F for awhile. Waiting for the market to tank. Never happened.
I am young and still have a lot to learn about investing in the market. I guess at my age, I should more aggressive with my retirement.

Lkat don't know if you are contributing each payday but would suggest that at least those funds should be in the market C S and/or I Funds. Theory is that doesn't matter if market is down i.e. you are buying low and over time you are essentially dollar cost averaging into the market. You young folks have all the advantages. You are smart to pay attention to your retirement funds early in your career! Good luck!

Originally Posted by clester

One thing to know is that the economy and stock market are 2 different things. The fed flooding the economy with cheap money makes stocks go up. Companies are borrow cheaply to invest in the company or just buy stock. So profits should rise. There are any number of external factors can also play in. Thats why i like to use technical analysis. It can give clues as to which way markets will go.

You know, that's a good observation. I've been sitting in G all year because of the volatility initially, but then immediately after, the charts. Its been the same thing over and over. I'm starting to get dizzy.

I am in a conundrum today to to this mornings sell off. The pull back may be what I was looking for but its not quite enough to get a good buy signal yet C fund is in bull market rules. I save a trade if I go ahead and buy today. But I am nervous about May.

The C fund is not usually the leader, the S fund should be and it's in bear market rules still. It won't be much longer though because the 50 dma is climbing fast.

I can't shake that feeling that I should wait and my system is wishy-washy at this point.

Originally Posted by clester

I am in a conundrum today to to this mornings sell off. The pull back may be what I was looking for but its not quite enough to get a good buy signal yet C fund is in bull market rules. I save a trade if I go ahead and buy today. But I am nervous about May.

The C fund is not usually the leader, the S fund should be and it's in bear market rules still. It won't be much longer though because the 50 dma is climbing fast.

I can't shake that feeling that I should wait and my system is wishy-washy at this point.

Go for it. Misery loves company.

Just an observation but looking at the auto tracker, 200 people are beating the S&P. Looking at the last few years, we had lots of folks beating the S&P during slightly up years and I suspect down years but during strong bull market years only a handful beat it. That just reminded me of how important it is to be holding during those years and not time too much. Also, how timing helps a lot during turbulent years. This is how my system is supposed to work.

Congrats to all of you who are beating the S&P this year. It's not an easy feat.

The C and S funds have now broken the long uptrend channel and have started a downtrend channel. There is support around the 50 and 200 dma. I will wait to see how that plays out before buying.

Still have mixed reports on bull market as only C fund has crossed into bull market rules for my system. It also has lots of resistance from last year to reach a new all time high.

Originally Posted by clester

The C and S funds have now broken the long uptrend channel and have started a downtrend channel. There is support around the 50 and 200 dma. I will wait to see how that plays out before buying.

Still have mixed reports on bull market as only C fund has crossed into bull market rules for my system. It also has lots of resistance from last year to reach a new all time high.

Polish up that crystal ball and tell us if we are heading into a substantial pullback.