Thread: clester's Account Talk

I am still hanging out in the G fund looking for a good entry, thanks for the info!!

Looking at the S fund and getting very interested. We have an RSI/price divergence and the makings of a bottom. 860 on $emw has held 3 times. Possibly jumping in there soon.

Originally Posted by clester

Looking at the S fund and getting very interested. We have an RSI/price divergence and the makings of a bottom. 860 on $emw has held 3 times. Possibly jumping in there soon.

860 didn't hold so....

IF we did indeed have a head and shoulders pattern then we could go below 1700 on S&P

The head was about 2100 and neckline about 1860. That's 240 points or so. 1860 - 240 = 1620 ouch. I'm just using convenient numbers. Real technical analysts could give us a proper number. In any case, we are in trouble. We may be able to hit a short term bounce here and there.

I'm not sure this scenario will happen. Maybe something will change.

Originally Posted by clester

860 didn't hold so....

IF we did indeed have a head and shoulders pattern then we could go below 1700 on S&P

The head was about 2100 and neckline about 1860. That's 240 points or so. 1860 - 240 = 1620 ouch. I'm just using convenient numbers. Real technical analysts could give us a proper number. In any case, we are in trouble. We may be able to hit a short term bounce here and there.

I'm not sure this scenario will happen. Maybe something will change.

Only positive for stocks is that AGG is way overbought via RSI of 80+ and my system would be selling 100% if I were in it. It usually moves opposite stocks.

Seems we're getting the usual pre holiday reversal. Short covering before the weekend? IDK but we could also be starting another bear flag formation. But we are down so much this year already. Seems like we should get a bounce. S fund is down over 20% from it's high.

Anyway no good reason to buy back in today. Looking for a good re-entry point.

Originally Posted by clester

Seems we're getting the usual pre holiday reversal. Short covering before the weekend? IDK but we could also be starting another bear flag formation. But we are down so much this year already. Seems like we should get a bounce. S fund is down over 20% from it's high.

Anyway no good reason to buy back in today. Looking for a good re-entry point.

AGG sell signal worked out. That should also help stocks but it hasn't developed the divergence (RSI and price) yet to say that the price will continue down

Originally Posted by clester

AGG sell signal worked out. That should also help stocks but it hasn't developed the divergence (RSI and price) yet to say that the price will continue down

TSPTalk sentiment survey is bearish enough to give a buy signal, AGG looks to have topped out. RSI's have divergence RSI/price and a one day bounce. This could be enough to have a rally. I only have one trade left and have to decide to do 100% or 50% when I make a move. I wish I could move twice 50% at a time. Darn trading rules. I also lost some ground to the CSI funds from when I got out but just a little. That was one argument for staying in 100%. We still have a big downtrend. I would like to see that broken. The C fund broke the head and should neckline are which was a big reason I got out but those patterns can be tricky to pick the neckline.

Guess I have some time to think about it.

I think I'm gonna wait to see if we can break out of this downtrend on C and S funds before I buy. We are close to the top of the trend lines I draw. So, I can wait a day. I wonder if and when folks still in will sell on these rallies. Again, sentiment survey is probably bearish enough but has the last 2 day rally gotten folks bullish again? We are really in an emotional phase of the market. Listening to your emotions can be trouble or you can do the opposite of what they tell you and be a contrarian. I am logical and that doesn't always work either!

Well you can rely on my emotions. They made a pretty good contrarian indicator in 2014.

Today my emotions are saying enough is enough. I'm looking for more of a rally to bail on so it won't be today. The biggest reason I haven't bailed yet is because of my experience in 2014. When I finally sold in that first week of Feb it turned out I sold at the exact bottom to the day. It then finished out February with a spectacular rally that I did not participate in because I refused to chase.

Granted, 2016 is no 2014, but if you want to use me as a contrarian indicator full disclosure is advised as to what is driving me these days.

Originally Posted by Cactus

Well you can rely on my emotions. They made a pretty good contrarian indicator in 2014.

Today my emotions are saying enough is enough. I'm looking for more of a rally to bail on so it won't be today. The biggest reason I haven't bailed yet is because of my experience in 2014. When I finally sold in that first week of Feb it turned out I sold at the exact bottom to the day. It then finished out February with a spectacular rally that I did not participate in because I refused to chase.

Granted, 2016 is no 2014, but if you want to use me as a contrarian indicator full disclosure is advised as to what is driving me these days.

I've been in the same situation many times. It really sucks to be that guy that sells at the bottom or buys the top. When we could trade daily I would get whipsawed a lot. That's one reason I adopted the 50% rule into my system. I guess it's the reason for my system. I went to the school of hard knocks!

I'm back looking at the S fund. It has met all my requirements to buy. The RSI divergence is perfect and a good bounce off the bottom. It looks like the downtrend line will be broken today. As long as thing still look good buy noon I will probably buy. It's hard to buy after 2 big up days in a row though.