Thread: clester's Account Talk

Things are getting interesting again. I would, ideally, like to see a lower low on price and the RSI to stay above its low to create a divergence. Meaning price is going down while RSI is going up. The S fund is getting close to its low at RSI of 32. C fund is not as close to its low and RSI of 37. I fund is near its low at RSI of 34.

So, it seems like we are getting close to a buying opportunity. I hope my perfect conditions come about. If so, I will buy. My system says only buy 50% due to being in a bear market. Its generally better to wait for some kind of bounce before jumping in. Catching a falling knife can hurt!

Originally Posted by clester

Things are getting interesting again. I would, ideally, like to see a lower low on price and the RSI to stay above its low to create a divergence. Meaning price is going down while RSI is going up. The S fund is getting close to its low at RSI of 32. C fund is not as close to its low and RSI of 37. I fund is near its low at RSI of 34.

So, it seems like we are getting close to a buying opportunity. I hope my perfect conditions come about. If so, I will buy. My system says only buy 50% due to being in a bear market. Its generally better to wait for some kind of bounce before jumping in. Catching a falling knife can hurt!

I think the S fund will be the leader from now on. It made a lower low and RSI is below 30. All I need is a bounce to confirm a higher low on the RSI. The C and I funds need to head a little lower. In any case, a buy is coming to us soon. Again, we're in a bear market so I will only bet 50%.

Originally Posted by clester

I think the S fund will be the leader from now on. It made a lower low and RSI is below 30. All I need is a bounce to confirm a higher low on the RSI. The C and I funds need to head a little lower. In any case, a buy is coming to us soon. Again, we're in a bear market so I will only bet 50%.

Today is very tempting to buy 50% S fund. It has met all my requirements except that I would like the bounce to be more before I jump in. But today is the day to get in based on the TSP silly 2 trade rule.

Originally Posted by clester

Today is very tempting to buy 50% S fund. It has met all my requirements except that I would like the bounce to be more before I jump in. But today is the day to get in based on the TSP silly 2 trade rule.

bought 50% S fund

Originally Posted by clester

bought 50% S fund

I expect us to climb up to test the 50 DMA again if this trade works. From there? IDK but its still going to be rocky IMO thats why only the 50% buy. We are in a bear market according to my system when the 50 dma is below the 200 dma.

Yep saw the 50 day dma. One of the reason for taking a chance here. Looks like we could move up to that resistance point. Heck...we have had a very good double digit pullback from the highs. Makes me feel a bit more confident that the bears take a break. There is some risk of course...but I like the buy here at lower levels.

Originally Posted by clester

I expect us to climb up to test the 50 DMA again if this trade works. From there? IDK but its still going to be rocky IMO thats why only the 50% buy. We are in a bear market according to my system when the 50 dma is below the 200 dma.

System has worked so far. Next stop should be the 50 dma for a retest. I expect some sideways from there for a few weeks. Could be into December before we bust through that 50 dma for good. Staying cautious for now.

Originally Posted by clester

System has worked so far. Next stop should be the 50 dma for a retest. I expect some sideways from there for a few weeks. Could be into December before we bust through that 50 dma for good. Staying cautious for now.

A test of the 50 dma is coming up fast! C fund is much closer than S but both are only a percent or so away. Thinking of selling that test and seeing what happens. I have all my trades available.

Originally Posted by clester

A test of the 50 dma is coming up fast! C fund is much closer than S but both are only a percent or so away. Thinking of selling that test and seeing what happens. I have all my trades available.

Well, here we are. The C fund is testing its 50 dma. The S fund is still well below it though. Lets see how it plays out. If the C fund clears the 50 dma the next target is the 200 dma. If it fails we'll probably head lower. My guess is that when the S fund reaches the 50 dma we'll have a pull back. Remember, we are still in a bear market. Looks a lot like 2011 though. Maybe a repeat?

Looks like neither the C Fund or I Fund could get past the 50 DMA today. Maybe tomorrow or Friday, but then you have to ask yourself if that's only pre-holiday action followed by a drop on Tuesday.

Originally Posted by Cactus

Looks like neither the C Fund or I Fund could get past the 50 DMA today. Maybe tomorrow or Friday, but then you have to ask yourself if that's only pre-holiday action followed by a drop on Tuesday.

Your drop on Tuesday is very possible, especially if China trading resumes downward on Monday. As for the 50 dma....I'm not putting much reliance on it as an indicator (or the 200 for that matter) since the FED is playing QE again.