Thread: clester's Account Talk

Originally Posted by clester

I didn't expect another down day this big as futures are down about 3%. The retest of the low and probably a break of it is probably coming. If so then it will be a great place to buy some stock. Especially if the RSI gets below 30 again. The rate hike decision is on the 16th I think, so we'll probably have volatility until then.

I don't think its time to buy yet. Futures up but we may have sellers this afternoon. We will probably bounce around for a couple weeks. I need the RSI to drop to 30 again. A test of the low or a break of the low price would be perfect setup.

Originally Posted by clester

I don't think its time to buy yet. Futures up but we may have sellers this afternoon. We will probably bounce around for a couple weeks. I need the RSI to drop to 30 again. A test of the low or a break of the low price would be perfect setup.

"Subscribed", "following", "riding your coat tails", whatever you want to call it. But, I am with you. I think for one thing we need to get beyond the whole "interest rate" issue one way or the other. Personally, after the "China Syndrome", I don't think the markets will react as poorly to a rate hike as they have to the entire devaluation issue.

But what do I know?, I'm in G fund.

Frank

Originally Posted by Lakebound

"Subscribed", "following", "riding your coat tails", whatever you want to call it. But, I am with you. I think for one thing we need to get beyond the whole "interest rate" issue one way or the other. Personally, after the "China Syndrome", I don't think the markets will react as poorly to a rate hike as they have to the entire devaluation issue.

But what do I know?, I'm in G fund.

Frank

It's funny but all the Geopolitical, Fed, economic etc. news is always there. There is always something to worry about. Thats why I like using technicals. It simplifies things. Also, I have decided that using too many technical parameters just confuses things. So, I use just a few simple ideas to make my decisions on.

The other stuff is interesting and I follow it but now its just background noise to me.


I will be looking for a lower low but a higher RSI to trigger a buy. This creates a divergence and usually indicates things are turning around. Be aware though that we are now in what my system defines as a bear market (50 dma is below the 200). Bias is now to the downside so I usually only buy 50% unless its very compelling.

We just have to be patient. I think we will get it this month. Maybe around the Fed meeting.

Originally Posted by clester

It's funny but all the Geopolitical, Fed, economic etc. news is always there. There is always something to worry about. Thats why I like using technicals. It simplifies things. Also, I have decided that using too many technical parameters just confuses things. So, I use just a few simple ideas to make my decisions on.

The other stuff is interesting and I follow it but now its just background noise to me.


I will be looking for a lower low but a higher RSI to trigger a buy. This creates a divergence and usually indicates things are turning around. Be aware though that we are now in what my system defines as a bear market (50 dma is below the 200). Bias is now to the downside so I usually only buy 50% unless its very compelling.

We just have to be patient. I think we will get it this month. Maybe around the Fed meeting.

Agree with being patient while the Fed thing plays out in a couple of weeks. What you just said reminded me of what was in this article:

‘Bearish divergence’ is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market - MarketWatch

MW-DT765_Bullis_20150904094102_NS.jpg

Originally Posted by Nordic

Agree with being patient while the Fed thing plays out in a couple of weeks. What you just said reminded me of what was in this article:

‘Bearish divergence’ is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market - MarketWatch

MW-DT765_Bullis_20150904094102_NS.jpg

Good chart. Shows exactly what I was talking about. We don't have a divergence yet as RSI is in a near term uptrend. What usually happens is we get a lower low in price as RSI climbs. I'm looking for is that last big push down in price for a test or break of the low.

Nothing to report really. Nothing has changed for my system. So, I guess everyone is waiting on the Fed. I think I'll plan on waiting until Friday to see how it shakes out.

That's me all over!
I might miss a BIG up, but could miss a BIG Down. Nobody knows.

Today we broke out of the wedge pattern and so That gives me a 50% buy signal. It should climb up to test the 50 dma. I won't execute a buy though because tomorrow is the fed day and who knows how the market will react. My feeling is that Friday will reverse the action of tomorrow. So, if it goes way up I would sell and visa versa. In any case my system has a max of 50% in stocks because we are in a bear market (50 dma is below the 200).

I would really like to see a retest of the low or a breach of it to get a really good signal.

Originally Posted by clester

Today we broke out of the wedge pattern and so That gives me a 50% buy signal. It should climb up to test the 50 dma. I won't execute a buy though because tomorrow is the fed day and who knows how the market will react. My feeling is that Friday will reverse the action of tomorrow. So, if it goes way up I would sell and visa versa. In any case my system has a max of 50% in stocks because we are in a bear market (50 dma is below the 200).

I would really like to see a retest of the low or a breach of it to get a really good signal.

As a "pat on the back" to my system, It called the low. The problem was that I didn't have any trades left in August. September has given it any good signals for may system but it does expect a climb back to test the 50 dma at some time but it also expects a retest of the lows. So, I'm in no mans land right now. Having a conservative system and retired person I see the risk as too high for me right now. I'll just continue to hold out for a better buying opportunity for now. We are in a bear market and that is where one can lose a lot of money.

Days like this, where we are up a lot, are hard to miss out on. I feel drawn to buy but I know thats just an emotional feeling and not based on sound logic. I wonder if that means the market players are trying to draw in the retail buyers so they can sell.

Okay, now we're talking. Things are finally getting interesting. I will get a 'buy' signal when we get an RSI below 30 and price is below the previous low. Even if I don't get that perfect signal I will be looking to buy if we can get the 30 RSI. My system says buy no more that 50% while in a bear market but I will be tempted to buy more than that if we get that perfect signal.

The C & S Funds look like they still have a ways to go yet. The I Fund is the closest to your target and it's testing it's low now, but I don't think I'd risk entering the I Fund with what's going on around the world now.