Thread: TSP Pilot

I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.

tsptalk wrote:

I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.

Exactly! Check out this disclaimer:

"Past stated hypothetical performance is not an indication of future performance."

o

kinda pricy too!

even with the specially reduced prices, I think I would rather listen to ya'll, do my own calculations and take my best semi-educated guess. That way I'm to blame if I make a bad call now and then. I think I've done fairly well just watching everyday.

I can't get enough of you all's comments, sometimes I spend too much time just looking for a new posting, but it is fun as well.

My two cents
I would welcome a service such as this and would not mind paying at the price asked for but I’m hesitant to join because of the lack of information on the website regarding the group’s abilities and skills. Missing on the website are indications of the organizers’ authenticity. Are they credible? Are they crooks? There are no testimonials, recommendations, associations, partners or groups to speak of or for this service group.

tsptalk wrote:

I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.

Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?

mlk_man wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.

Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?

I wouldn't doubt that your systemproduced a 25% return this year. Their claim is that they averaged 22.7% for 15 years. And that includes a bear market where the Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value.That is based on backtesting no doubt. I am saying that if someone joins, it is unrealistic to expect to makea 22% average return just because that worked for an after the fact system.

If someone can average 15% a year they'd be a billion dollar money manger. Warren Buffettwould joining their service.

I'm not saying they have a bad service. Not at all. It could be a good system. I'm saying that their claims need to be clarified that it all backtested hypothetical and not actual results. There is some small print at the bottom that says this. I'll give them that.

tsptalk wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.

Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?

I wouldn't doubt that your systemproduced a 25% return this year. Their claim is that they averaged 22.7% for 15 years. And that includes a bear market where the Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value.That is based on backtesting no doubt. I am saying that if someone joins, it is unrealistic to expect to makea 22% average return just because that worked for an after the fact system.

If someone can average 15% a year they'd be a billion dollar money manger. Warren Buffettwould joining their service.

I'm not saying they have a bad service. Not at all. It culd be a good system. I'm saying that their claims need to be clarified that it all backtested hypothetical and not actual results. There is some small print at the bottom that says this. I'll give them that.

Hmmm, I'll have to look into being a money manager I reckon.......:P

Av8r wrote:

Have recently seen some email traffic from " TSP Pilot" ********.com. Anyone have any experience with this allocation company?

I rather save my $ and follow Tom's advice. :^

zoeb wrote:

Av8r wrote:

Have recently seen some email traffic from " TSP Pilot" ********.com. Anyone have any experience with this allocation company?

I rather save my $ and follow Tom's advice. :^

I've also received several emails from them recently. In the first one, they claimed to have back tested their system for 3 years. I didn't think that was good enough so I just ignored it. The most recent email claimed to back test for 15 years with solid results. They alsolist their recent recommendations from January to September 2004. If those recommendations are true, and onefollowed those recommendations, they'd be up 12% during a period when each of the individual funds was up only 1-3%. Very impressive...but then again,those past recs could also be fabricated to give that impression. How do I know if they are legit?So, like you, I've tried to see how reputable this company is. Can't find anything in BBB about them. Looking at the website, I noticed that they list no person's name, no phone # and no street address. They list no organization name other than TSP Pilot. Then I looked at the disclaimers and got really alarmed. Besides the fact that once you sign up, you are signed up for life until you withdraw, the disclaimers were disturbing. It said that subscriptions of a year or more had limited money back guarantees for up to 60 days, but that any subscriptions for less time than that had no money back. So, in other words, if you took out a 6 month subscription and wanted to quit after a month, you were out of luck and your money. If you took out a 12 or 24 month subscription, you might get some money back, but who knows how much?

The website states that they are in Maryland yet the disclaimer says that they are governed by the laws of Michigan. Also, any customer who disputes a credit card payment is subject to a fine, suspension and account termination. A charge of $25.00 per chargeback is assessed. Sounds like they're anticipating a slew of chargebacks. A whois search finds that the site is owned by a lawyer in MD who does not specialize in finance.

IMHO, this doesn't pass the smell test. I would recommend that people BEWARE.