Thread: alevin's account talk

Originally Posted by burrocrat

i can prove to you the internet is a lie. i live in a town of 400 folks, 11 miles and 30 miles from the next nearest settlements. there are only 3 single gals out here, but one of them is seeing someone regularly. there is not 168 of them within 8 miles of me. none of them look like that. and not one of them want to 'date' me right now. the internet is a lie.

Good G-D man, I'm married, and I'd still have to move my keester outta there. Those are some pretty stinky odds to play with as a single man. As a fellow voyager, pack up the ark and move along my friend...

Originally Posted by jonfresno

Good G-D man, I'm married, and I'd still have to move my keester outta there. Those are some pretty stinky odds to play with as a single man. As a fellow voyager, pack up the ark and move along my friend...

well... i may have done a little too much funnin' around in my earlier days so i've been trying to even up the karma balance a bit, also it keeps me out of trouble this way. and as an added bonus, i'm pretty sure i'm the smartest guy in town (but i've thought that everywhere i've lived so there may not be much to that theory).

Yeesus Burro, don't mean to intrude, just hope you can get out live it up some and don't become a hermit. "Too much funnin' around in your early days"? c'mon man! seriously. Hope you are not like the guy in the video clip.

What happened to my meek mild-mannered Clark Kent thread? Lions, tigers and burros, Oh My!!! or is that Oh. My. GOD! (as Higgins would say ). Guys, guys-burro can get in trouble no matter where he lives. Don't you know that by now? Conversely, he has the ability to stay out of trouble no matter where he lives, as well. It's called mind over matter (never mind what matter we're talking about, now). The Perils of Pauline, aka Tribulations of the lonesome Burro, could be the subject of a new thread over in the bar, who wants to give it a whirl? any takers?

Index indicator update today.

I noticed yesterday that the Nasdaq100 indicator had dropped at long last (must have happened a day earlier, I hadn't noticed), and had already begun almost imperceptibly, to move sideways as of yesterday morning based on 5x10 day mas (smoothed). The Nasdaq itself finally dropped below the mean but hasn't begun moving sideways-yet.

SPX ma indicator still moving sideways below the mean, no further drops-yet. Since I got caught on the drop, I plan on holding for now, until one of the indicators gives me a clearer buy/sell signal. notice that pretty good-sized drops in an index can occur while signal is moving sideways below the mean, even if hasn't dropped to -SD2 or popped back up to the 1SD yet. I'm not looking forward to that, but suspect it will happen before too much longer.

nasdaq100-2y 5-10ma 3-16-1510ma.png

sp500 2y 5-10ma 3-16-15.png

I'm curious, when the the Tranny drop?

Originally Posted by JTH

I'm curious, when the the Tranny drop?

I wish I knew, Jason. The indexindicators.com site doesn't use the trannies. lots of us market indicators and also overseas market indicators for lots of countries, but not the trannies.

I need to check out the internationals and see how they perform against country-specific etfs, tho. haven't gotten to that point yet. the nas and spx are keeping me busy watching every day tho. both the 5x10mas and the 10x20mas.

Well, I've gone back through the index indicator charts and compared to $tran and $tranq on stockcharts.

$ndx signal with the 5x10 ma ratio signal was excellent entry point at -2SD, between 1/15-16/15 for $spx and $compq and $ndx. The safer buy signal for $spx at -2SD came a little later on 1/30/15, based on the $spx 10x20 ma ratio signal. the $spx ma ratios did not give buy signal until then.

The $trans and tranq gave confirming/matching signals on those same dates with big red candles followed by sizeable outside or inside green candles (sometimes with springtails, sometimes not), but generally followed by a confirming green candle after the first green candle showed up after the flushing red. If look at the weekly candles, however, the tranq signal on 1/15-16/15 was pretty unsafe to take if planned to stay in the market any length of time. The weekly candle on 1/30/15 was far far safer signal for the $tranq. I'd use that for confirmation for safe longerterm entry on $spx if I were to start using the $trans to confirm ma signals. $tran shows similar, safer weekly candle entry signal on weekly candle at 1/30/15, less safe on 1/15-16.

good to know, even if I don't have the skill to develop my own charting algorithm to do an ma ratio smoothing function for the $tran and $tranq. something else to consider if unsure about entry point.

Originally Posted by alevin

Well, I've gone back through the index indicator charts and compared to $tran and $tranq on stockcharts.

$ndx signal with the 5x10 ma ratio signal was excellent entry point at -2SD, between 1/15-16/15 for $spx and $compq and $ndx. The safer buy signal for $spx at -2SD came a little later on 1/30/15, based on the $spx 10x20 ma ratio signal. the $spx ma ratios did not give buy signal until then.

The $trans and tranq gave confirming/matching signals on those same dates with big red candles followed by sizeable outside or inside green candles (sometimes with springtails, sometimes not), but generally followed by a confirming green candle after the first green candle showed up after the flushing red. If look at the weekly candles, however, the tranq signal on 1/15-16/15 was pretty unsafe to take if planned to stay in the market any length of time. The weekly candle on 1/30/15 was far far safer signal for the $tranq. I'd use that for confirmation for safe longerterm entry on $spx if I were to start using the $trans to confirm ma signals. $tran shows similar, safer weekly candle entry signal on weekly candle at 1/30/15, less safe on 1/15-16.

good to know, even if I don't have the skill to develop my own charting algorithm to do an ma ratio smoothing function for the $tran and $tranq. something else to consider if unsure about entry point.

Agreed, it's always nice to get confirmation from the major indexes, I love it when they are in agreement with each other

tran and tranq are not real positive going into this next week, tranq showing indecision doji, tran showing red candle close right on the 50 MA.

Likewise, the indexindicator MA charts I'm using these days, are still sitting on the 60 yard line, 1 std dev. below the mean where they have been for days and days. wish they'd either pop or drop down a notch. This buy on a strong signal and wait for next strong signal either way system is still on a learning curve on when/how much/if to act on intermediate signals.

meantime, the prowl for retirement property and related income ideas to offset increased property taxes continues. deeper investigation into the property I was considering has convinced me I need to keep looking around.

learning lots along the way about farm business management for the types of crops I'd be interested in producing. net margin, gross margin, beehives stocking rates for orchards, vegetables, ag property tax deferral laws-different states. I took a class in beef production and animal nutrition way way back, and another that had us working on farm/ranch economics, so not starting completely from scratch. still when talking berries and bees, a lot different than talking beefcows and hay. and it all adds up to water. without it, got nothing. and just like with buying a house, got to have enough cashflow to operate the place and keep it maintained, it's not just about the mortgage payments. keeps my mind interested at least, exploring new ideas.

At this point, my thinking has switched to buying undeveloped, no residence already built. lease or rent for grazing/cropping until I'm ready to retire. have land almost paid off by that point, then decide how much home can afford to build (after selling this place) and still have cashflow to maintain or increase ag operations. looking to buy in more tax-friendly state for retirees as well. this state not one of those.

Learning curve ongoing with my new indicator system. Go figure, I thought the indices to watch were sp500 and nasdaq100. Add another to the list. NYSE. The sp500 and nas100 chart indicators have been flat at the midline (mean) since the drop from topping signal in Feb. Wish I'd noticed the NYSE drop to -2dDev earlier this month, much better signal for stepping in, if I'd been willing to wait.

regardless, I'll wait to put the rest of my chips in until I see one of the 3 indices drop to -2SD, whichever drops first will be my next signal for putting any more chips in. My personal trailing stop for bailing is 1%. Will see where today goes. keep losses small, ride the gains. I still have gains at this point.

nyse 1yr 5-10ma 3-26-15.png