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Thread: anthony's Account Talk

  1. #217

    Default Re: Location Update

    Was planning to get back in with an IFT today. Now we have the Korea lobbing shells at each other and Russia massing troops on the Ukrainian border. Maybe just hold off for a little bit or do it piecemeal.

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  3. #218

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    A little buying this week ... AMZN and NFLX. I owned NFLX years ago and regretted selling. I like the current price as a good re-entry, though some are arguing that it has returned to fair value. Who knows. I'll buy more later no mater what direction these move. New attitude these days when it comes to stocks is basically 'never sell anything.' Of course I will occasionally sell something, but it's more about the attitude. When I look back at the stocks I've sold, almost without fail they've recovered from whatever it was scratched my itchy trigger finger. So, it's more about a long hold attitude. Good luck, all!

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  5. #219

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    I'm stepping aside at least for the first half of August. I stayed in I Fund for now because I think it's got one, maybe two days of catching up to do, plus fair value adjustment. Looking for around $66 on EFA then move the next day. I think both C Fund and the S Fund have another 1 to 1.5% potential for gain left in them, but felt like the risk just wasn't worth chasing that. I'll get it later. I'm looking for a re-entry at one of three possible short-term low points or markers, depending on which one holds and has decent looking MACD and RSI indications: 1) 2040, 2) 1970, or 3) 1830 on the S&P 500. When I see that, probably move back into S and I.

    S&P 500 August Re-Entry Points.png

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  7. #220

    Default Re: F Fund

    Bought a bunch of Apple (APPL) today (pun intended), adding to an existing long hold position. Like the short term re-entry point here, RSI, and other factors. Is there some risk with the recent "quadruple top," breaking the 200-day SMA, and other concerns? You bet there is. If it keeps falling I'll just buy more ...

    As for indexes (TSP), staying put for the moment. I'll probably miss some gains this month, but I want to let some dust settle.

    Good luck to all.

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  9. #221

    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wilmington,NC
    Posts
    821

    Default Re: F Fund

    I'm holding appl also have been for awhile. Buying is an option but the stock is not cheap about $115. Netflicks looked good so I picked up about 10 shares,it's not cheap either but I wanted to diversify my meager portfolio. Good luck to us.

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  11. #222

    Default

    Man, I love my NFLX. Almost love the stock as much as my wife loves watching the shows. It was a lot cheaper when I first bought in at $19! All that said, I've bought a few NFLX dips over the years, but it's not screaming a buy to me right now. I doubt I'd sell the stuff, but the indicators (stats and news, not charts) make others look like better values right now.

    I look at AAPL and this is what I see that makes me a little greedy:
    • .90 PEG: for the most part anything at 1.00 or less to me is screaming undervalued stock and a buy.
    • P/Es (trailing and forward) are both in the very low teens. You see those numbers with stocks that people think are going nowhere. Again, undervalued and ought to be mid to high teens. (But not the unsustainable numbers you see on NFLX).
    • Lots of cash. Some debt, but ratio is good.
    • Very good dividends to reinvest.
    • Number of shares being shorted is on the decline.
    • Great management and company climate.
    • Some good stuff going on with Intel that may benefit both companies and may hurt Samsung.


    Things I wish were better: Insider ownership. Generally I like companies better where this number is 10% or higher, like the Amazons and Activisions of the world. That's hard to find these days though.

    In the short term I think there's about a 50% chance we'll see some pain, maybe even the 50 SMA crossing the 200 SMA, but I doubt it stays there through the Christmas season. I think there's just as good a chance for snap recovery on this stock at least into spring, which is why I picked some up now. I think we'll see some major damage across the market next spring, but in the meantime, potential gain is outweighing risk on AAPL for me, and I think they'll lead the way out of any major correction as well, if that happens. If it does I'll buy again. If it doesn't at least I got some at this point.

    We shall certainly see! As you said, good luck to us!

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  13. #223

    Default Re: F Fund

    Quick post to chime in on a few others seen this morning about getting invested or making the decision to do so. I really missed the short term double bottom we had in October and been kicking myself for that. The general rule of "Buy in May, then go away" is that you leave at the estimated May high point and re-enter at the estimated October low point. That played out almost to a tee this year. Anyway, I got in late, but I see the little dip in November as a possible last chance to get in before the holiday positive bias leaves you in the dust, so I'm now 100% invested 75C/25S, although I almost stuck with 100C. Hoping S plays a little catch up at end of year. We may see another small buy if Black Friday traffic is low, but I think it's going to be offset by even bigger online sales, so I don't care. Sometimes you also get a brief lull mid-December. From my usual reading I think we're going to see a strong uptrend to new all-time highs through end of the year, so it would take some real strong danger signals for me to move again this year. BUT ... I think 2016 has a lot of potential for ugliness. So, if I get what I'm looking for ahead of Christmas (3-5%), I'll likely start taking small pieces off the table, then hang out to see what happens at the start of the year. If I read something new and change, I'll try to post.

    From a stocks perspective, my holiday pick is Disney (DIS). I picked up shares at $113 to try and catch some holiday and pre-Star Wars momentum. I know the chart looks double-toppy, but I still like the chances and the fundamentals. If it dips I have more cash planned for a future second and third purchase. If it looks too toppy for you and you're trying to pick something at the bottom of a trend, my close second is National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They've been clobbered with oil prices, but I like the bottom they're trying to put in now. Third place is probably Priceline (PCLN). They took a hit with all travel stocks after Paris, but there's nothing wrong with the fundamentals, which makes for a good buy opportunity.

    Good luck to all. Happy Thanksgiving!

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  15. #224

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    So, I'm totally flopping on my last post after some reading this weekend. Here's my end of year in a nutshell:


    • I'm still convinced we'll see new all time highs by end of December.
    • Change from last week is I think we'll also test the 17,250 level (^DJI) before that move higher, or about a 2.5-3% drop from current levels.
    • Trigger for a move up from the 17,250 might be the December FOMC, on the 15th to 16th.


    Therefore I will be watching close this week and act as follows for December:


    1. I'll likely move to at least 50G/25C/25S tomorrow
    2. If we get one strong day (1% gain), including if it comes tomorrow, I'll go to 100G
    3. If we get some sideways action I'll move the other half to G later in the week, not later than Thursday.
    4. If it's looking really bad before I get to move all to G Fund, i.e. more than 1% loss, I'll likely hang on for the ride down to 17,250.
    5. If I have two IFTs available in Dec, I'll move back into a 50C/50S position over the course of two days in the middle of the month.
    6. If I only have one IFT left in the middle of Dec, the move to 50C/50S will (obviously) be all at once, probably on the 15th.


    Please don't take this as advice. A CFP I am not. Just throwing out my own ideas to see what others think and for critique.

    Good luck to all!

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  17. #225

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    Yep, gooned that up. If I could see into the future (or had an account that let me trade at 4 p.m. instead of noon ...) then I would have gone to 100% G-Fund today, per my post below. Oh well. I'll still get half of today's gains to erase yesterday's minor loss. I'm still likely to migrate to 100G by Thursday, based on 'feel.' Only difference is when I get back in later, I'll have to do it one move.

    Good luck to all.


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  19. #226

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    I chickened out. Going to let some dust settle. Will reinvest if one of two things happen: a) good test of ~17250 DJI, or b) convincing breakout above ~18000 DJI. Good luck to all.

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  21. #227

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    Friggin' 12 o'clock trade deadline ...

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  23. #228

    Default Re: anthony's Account Talk

    Good interview on NPR's On Point with Tom Ashbrook last night. Interviewed Alexandra Suich of the Economist, Josh Rauth of Stanford, and Robert Metcalfe. Metcalfe's insights were especially valuable. Here's the info and podcast link:

    'Unicorns' and Warnings of a Tech Bubble at ?Unicorns? And Warnings Of A Tech Bubble | On Point with Tom Ashbrook
    My posts are not advice. It's just my ideas from stuff I read, open to feedback from others. Be critical. Do your homework. // Currently: 50C/50I; 12-mo PIP: 12.05%.

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