PF_chart_C

**James48843** · 12-24-2007, 04:34 PM

This is the thread for working the P&F chart on the C fund.

Some basic information first: I've been watching the P&F chart for the C fund for a couple months now, and tried to gauge how it would work to use the C fund, and then try to capture moves up in the P&F cycles, to see what kind of return it would generate.

I will not always follow the exact buy/sell timing that the chart generates, primarily because it doesn't allow due to noon deadlines, etc. But it does appear to be a good enough chart to use to make some good calls on ups and downs, when the chart is in sync.

So I am going to try posting for a while in this account thread, and try to make a go of it.

The first initial entry buy into the chart was near a bottom which appeared on December 19, 2007. From this point on, you can find the return data on the autotracker under the symbol "PF_chart_C." The first move was to a "buy" on December 19th. When the chart says we have a green light, and an upward thrust is due, I'll post it. When the chart says hold off, it won't make any buy signals, but will sit instead on the sidelines.

This is NOT a recommendation for you to buy or sell any security at any time. It is only posted here so that you can watch if you are interested. The P&F chart school thread in the Technical Analysis section will explain more about what P&F charts can do, and why some people find them a good tool.

Your money is exactly that. YOURS.

Disclaimers:
1. I am not giving any investment advice. I do not professionally give advice. I do not move my own account in accordance with this system. (Yet). This is simply a hypethetical account that, if it works, is one more tool for people to consider or watch. I will try and keep it posted as best I can, although there may be days when I miss signals or am late posting. No guarantees here.

2. No animals were harmed in the creation of the P&F Chart C plan.

3. This system will use the "C" fund to minimize expenses of other share holders. The C fund is the lowest cost stock fund to move.

4. The chart, and it's signals, can be seen in "real time" each trading day on stockcharts.com, under the S&P 500 chart. I will only post updated charts in the evenings, and sometimes only when we are nearing expected turning points in the cycle. There is not expected to be a daily post, only posts when indicators are a possible change of direction is due.

5. Oh yeh, I almost forgot. My favorite disclaimer of them all. Here goes: This chart seems to work, EXCEPT IN NEBRASKA.

**James48843** · 12-24-2007, 04:49 PM

Here is today's P&F chart for the C fund, as of 12:45 a.m. December 24th.

Merry Christmas.

According to the chart, we may be nearing a short-term top here. Take a look at the "X"s about to reach the top of the recent trading range. One more "X" up around 1500, and we'll have filled this cycle, and the trend would indicate it is time for a rest.

12_24_07.JPG

Now, according to traditional history around Christmas, we've had historically a couple of good days following Christmas (the Santa Claus Effect).

So while most times I would be about ready to pull out and go back to the sidelines, I'll leave it in another day and see what happens on the day after Christmas. We've had a nice run up, about 2.26% in this entry of the P&F cycle. As such, my gut tells me to take the profit, and sit out for the next wave down. But, since it's Christmas, I'll let it ride another day and see how she goes.

If we top 1500 on Wednesday, I will look for the possiblity of pulling out for Thrusday. We'll check back in before noon on Wednesday for another look.

Till then, Merry Christmas to ALL, and to all a good night.

**airlift** · 12-24-2007, 05:58 PM

Thank you for the P%F Chart and opinion! It is consistent with other signals and entries for Thursday. Let's hope for a continued Santa Claus rally.

**James48843** · 12-26-2007, 09:11 PM

WELL, HERE WE ARE, ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER POINT.

MUCH weaker than I was anticipating. I am now thinking tomorrow will be the day to draw back and sell, after the nice little coast up.

I'm thinking that because we were not able to finish above 1500 on the day after Christmas. This quarter has been weak, and we are likely to see a lot of end-of-year tax selling in the next few days. I know I already have locked in my tax losses for the year in my personal account, and was hoping for some gains to offset the losses. But it's not to be for me. And that MIGHT be the case also for others out there, so end-of-year MAY be lighter than normal.

But, in any case, we've had a nice run higher here. And we're nearing the top of those little "O's in the column next door, so I am afraid the O's are only a day or two away.

I will be closely watching before noon tomorrow to see direction, and will, most likely, sell if we see weakness tomorrow.

Here is today's P&F chart. Technically, no new signals. No different than Monday's chart. So we wait.

12_26_07-JPG.JPG

Be prepared to jump out tomorrow.

Be ready. Be nimble. But be back at 11:30 tomorrow for more technical chart comment.

Later, and BE SAFE.

**James48843** · 12-27-2007, 03:21 PM

Chart falling.

P&F chart C is moving to 100% F fund position as of today.

More later.

**James48843** · 12-28-2007, 01:40 PM

I blew it.

I saw the drop yesterday closing in on 1470, and thought it would make the O's start to appear once it crossed 1475, as it was down in the third box off the top on yesterday's drop. However, it appears it came up just short of the level that it would have taken to make the O's appear and signal a formal reversal.

My fault for pulling the trigger early. It should have remained IN THE MARKET until the O's actually appeard.

12_28_07_jpg.JPG

I'm running it back into the market with a buy today in the hypothetical P&F chart C account.

Sorry, I blew it-

**weatherweenie** · 12-28-2007, 02:08 PM

With the new home sale numbers that just came out, you might not have blown it.

I blew it.

I saw the drop yesterday closing in on 1470, and thought it would make the O's start to appear once it crossed 1475, as it was down in the third box off the top on yesterday's drop. However, it appears it came up just short of the level that it would have taken to make the O's appear and signal a formal reversal.

My fault for pulling the trigger early. It should have remained IN THE MARKET until the O's actually appeard.

12_28_07_jpg.JPG

I'm running it back into the market with a buy today in the hypothetical P&F chart C account.

Sorry, I blew it-

**James48843** · 12-30-2007, 04:37 PM

No, I blew it.

I told myself I would not change the allocation of the autotracker for the P&F chart on anything other than a full signal appearing. That means that I would not make a move unless the three downward "O"s appeared. When I saw the 1475 point get crossed, I assumed it would mean the three O's would appear on the chart at the end of the day, so I pulled the trigger.

But they didn't appear, as the actual value to trigger the O's was 1470, not 1475, as i had thought. So I was early.

I promise again NOT to make the move again UNTIL the actual signal appears on the chart.

MY FAULT, MY ERROR.

Sorry.

**James48843** · 12-31-2007, 03:09 PM

If the chart holds the O's should appear today. Currently, as of 11:00 a.m. the S&P 500 has fallen to 1469. That is a three box reversal for sure, and it should appear today as O's, unless the markets rebound significantly this afternoon.

As I said in my last post, I won't be moving the actual P&F autotracker account until AFTER the O's appear in the chart. No emotion on this one- I'm going to try to keep it strictly non-emotional, and mechincal in nature. Just to see how trading using the P&F signals would do.

If the O's appear tonight, it will be a move to the F for tomorrow (one day lag due to noon cutoff).

Anyway, here is the chart as of 11:00 a.m. this morning:

12_31_07_jpg.JPG

Notice that we are now more than 3 boxes down in the reversal. That SHOULD signal the appearance of the O's at the close today, unless it bounces back.

And I don't know how far down it is going to go if we do get the reversal- there is still the gap down at 1425 or so that needs to be filled, so I am thinking that may be next.

Hang on- roller coaster ride ahead.