Thread: Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

I don't think decay factor is a real issue with ETFs, but that's just my opinion. I think it is more so with options, you definitely don't want to hold those suckers too long. Bottom line is that the Russell 2000 is up 7.40% YTD while TNA is up 16.4%. It "should" be up 22.20% right? Who cares, you still made more than just sitting in a 1X fund all year...............

If you bought NUGT at the end of last year, you'd be up over 500%. Again, who cares if it "should" be up 800%............don't sweat the small stuff.

The only thing warning people about not holding 3X ETFs for long periods does is make them exit too soon. The VIX ETFs are a totally different matter as backwardation and contango play big rolls with those, so many times you'll see the VIX up one day while UVXY and/or TVIX will be down. Still, it has nothing to do with how long you held the ETF. You could have bought one day before or 20 days before, you still would have gotten screwed that one day...............

Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer

I don't think decay factor is a real issue with ETFs, but that's just my opinion. I think it is more so with options, you definitely don't want to hold those suckers too long. Bottom line is that the Russell 2000 is up 7.40% YTD while TNA is up 16.4%. It "should" be up 22.20% right? Who cares, you still made more than just sitting in a 1X fund all year...............

If you bought NUGT at the end of last year, you'd be up over 500%. Again, who cares if it "should" be up 800%............don't sweat the small stuff.

The only thing warning people about not holding 3X ETFs for long periods does is make them exit too soon. The VIX ETFs are a totally different matter as backwardation and contango play big rolls with those, so many times you'll see the VIX up one day while UVXY and/or TVIX will be down. Still, it has nothing to do with how long you held the ETF. You could have bought one day before or 20 days before, you still would have gotten screwed that one day...............

Right...to each; his/her own.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

I prefer to trade.

"Friends don't let friends buy and hold."

Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer

I don't think decay factor is a real issue with ETFs, but that's just my opinion

This shows the extreme example if you bought the 3X long gold (NUGT) and the 3X short gold (DUST) ETFs and held them long term.

Yikes!

Originally Posted by tsptalk

This shows the extreme example if you bought the 3X long gold (NUGT) and the 3X short gold (DUST) ETFs and held them long term.

But what will those charts look like in a few more months? If DUST and/or NUGT go back up after declining so much, and are sold at that point, then there is no harm.


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So if I short both of them and hold them long term I will have guaranteed profits.

Yeah, but good luck finding shares to short. I've tried many times on Scottrade who never has any. They must be reserved for the hedge fund managers.

Originally Posted by userque

Right...to each; his/her own.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

I prefer to trade.

"Friends don't let friends buy and hold."

"Friends don't let friends buy and hold", except when it is prudent.................

BTW, thanks for stopping by trying to teach me about "decay", "slippage" or whatever else you wanna call it. I've been doing this a long time and I guess I'm one of the few that understands it, like you so eloquently put it in your original message that you edited. I would like to warn you to not believe everything you read on "The Motley Fool" also. If they were any good at trading, they wouldn't have to "teach" or write a newsletter. I've been a consistent winner and have also consistently beaten the S&P 500, despite the limitations of TSP. I guess Tom forgot to mention that to you...........

There were signs that NUGT had bottomed out in Nov/Dec. It didn't actually bottom till early Jan, but if one had bought in Nov/Dec, they'd be quite happy right now. That's not going to be depicted by your 5-6 year chart.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

This shows the extreme example if you bought the 3X long gold (NUGT) and the 3X short gold (DUST) ETFs and held them long term.

Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer

"Friends don't let friends buy and hold", except when it is prudent.................

BTW, thanks for stopping by trying to teach me about "decay", "slippage" or whatever else you wanna call it. I've been doing this a long time and I guess I'm one of the few that understands it, like you so eloquently put it in your original message that you edited. I would like to warn you to not believe everything you read on "The Motley Fool" also. If they were any good at trading, they wouldn't have to "teach" or write a newsletter. I've been a consistent winner and have also consistently beaten the S&P 500, despite the limitations of TSP. I guess Tom forgot to mention that to you...........

Thanks.

I get it.

You're the best trader ever.

I don't "play" to be 2nd best................nice signature, advertising use to be against the rules here............

Originally Posted by userque

Thanks.

I get it.

You're the best trader ever.