Thread: Uptrend's Account Talk

This morning oil is above $85 a barrel. Geo-political problems in Turkey-Irag. Increasing demand in China and India. Stability?

"A run at $90 is now seen as reasonable," Citigroup analysts said in a note.

The higher spike in oil comes as fall/winter is coming on. It also takes away from Americans disposible income, and seems that it will affect the GDP at some point. The lower class would be hurt the most. How long can we pretend that these signs will not surface in the market?

A moderate sell-off is beginning this morning. Futures are showing >0.50% red. Should be more downside because the NYSE volume is still light. I need a little more down to think about getting back in.

Originally Posted by Uptrend

A moderate sell-off is beginning this morning. Futures are showing >0.50% red. Should be more downside because the NYSE volume is still light. I need a little more down to think about getting back in.

I was tempted to get back in tomorrow but my monkeys are telling me to stay put until Wednesday. My suspicions tell me we'll see a +FV today to set up a short sell tomorrow and a rally on Wednesday.

Tom Crowley had a pretty interesting gap analysis tonight. On the trading channel, we are at the 38% retracement level, so things could go either way tomorrow. I just don't have a very good feeling about all the data I have been viewing. One can use technical parameters to try and determine a course of action, or wiegh the dump truck load of evidence. My take 1) The market has risen too fast in recent weeks, 2) The sub-prine crisis is still lingering, and big write-downs are still occurring, 3) Oil is creeping higher, 4) Third quarter earnings should be generally disappointing. So, if the trading is trending down big at IFT time on 10/16 I will buy in to C/S, for Wednesday because we will be below a 50% retracement level and very possibly heading toward the bottom of the trading channel (for $SPX at 1520), where I would expect a bounce. If the trading starts heading up on 10/16 I will sit tight in F or G becasue, I see it as a false amd temporary comeback. Waiting for the $$$ green bounce.

The EFA is moving right down to the 20 day EMA this morning. Looking back over time on the charts, we usually get a bounce from here. Also the $SPX does not want to let go of the 50% rectracement level; it is staying right around 1539-1540 level. I see that as positive for the Bulls wanting to stay in control. So I smell a short-term dead cat bounce. I think the play is I tomorrow, and I will go that way in the automated tracker. The dollar index is gaining slightly this AM but still not much; its around 78.3 Lets make $

Well folks, the tech sector refuses to give up, and I think will make a sizzling comeback. Right now the $EMW that is a surrogate for the S fund is bouncing around on the 20 day MA, so I/m thinking we have a buy. The low dollar should really spike demand for products to go overseas. On that note shipping, basic metals and agricultural chemicals have been doing extremely well this year. We'll this is where the large caps come in. I am with Birchtree on this one. They will make a huge comeback. However, I think the small caps will do equally well. So, even thought the seasonality chart shows doom and gloom for the next 4 trading days, I'm thinking it is time to get a position in the S fund. For C, since the $SPX has broken below the 20 day MA and is heading for 100% retracement in the trading channel at about 1520, I say wait and see. Want to make sure we are not heading down to the 50 day MA. Looks like a buy is developing however. As for EFA, there is now more chance the dollar index can rise VS fall; at least in the intermediate term. So I am a little scared of I.

Look at what McDonalds is reporting:
"Our business is strong around the world," President and Chief Operating Officer Ralph Alvarez said on a conference call. "We are pleased with our performance for the third quarter and believe we're on track to achieve a record year, both for our system and our shareholders." Duh - what part of weak dollar don't you understand? The large caps will sizzle in the 4th quarter. I better be in C in January for the big rally.

Smart money has been playing the large caps since Aug when the retail investor began messing around with small caps. Any of the Dow 30 should excel in the global environment analysts predict in the quarters to come.

Well said; I think TSP C will be the play in the first quarter of 08 when the 4th quarter results start rolling in. We need to escape the roller coaster ride of the disappointing 3rd quarter for now. My plan: wait for the freefall - get on the ride and wiat for 1 to three trading days and get off before the next dip and you go weightless. I jumped on the ride for Monday with a IFT on Friday; at 60% S, and 40% C; but wont be staying for long.

The charts say: "apply the brakes". Why? For the $SPX (C) there is support just below 1500. For the $EMW (S) there is 100% retracement to the bottom of the trading channel and level now sits at support level. The AGG (F) shows resistance ahead. On the other hand the EFA has a ways to go to the bottom of the trading channel, and the Nikkei is down big tonight (so beware of I). Who cares about the self fulfilling prophecy Black Monday hype - the charts say -there is a pause ahead.

More brakes: the earning reports on Monday will include Merck with their earning reports being revised upward three times this year. And Apple and Texas instruments will report after the bell, as well as AT&T, Dupont and UPS for Tuesday which all look positive. Uptrends take: The market may have a hangover from Friday and open lower, but the bull will eventually get the upper hand later in the day. Tuesday looks for a charge. Wednedsay looks weaker at this point due to the probable more negative reports from Boeing and Merrill Lynch - could be more negative acceleration -should be interesting

Wow! The Nasdaq and the S&P are pushing straight up @ 2 PM EDT! I still think tomorrow is going to be ok as Apple and Texas Instruments reports will push up the markets in the AM. Could be a rebound play to catch I for either Tuesday or Wednesday. Since I am in S and C for tomorrow, will be looking at swinging to I for Wednesday. The anticipated poor domestic earnings reports and the existing home sales report should trash any gain activity for Wednesday in the American markets. Since I is a follower, Wednesday should be good if tomorrow is good in the US. The Nikkei and DAX are due for rebounds.

Well, the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P gapped up. I expected it really with the Apple earnings report. Gaps bother me a little, because I know they will be filled later. Now we shall see if we can hold on and get out of today. I am carefully watching the FTSE and DAX and see how much gain they may have by IFT time. Am leaning towards a 100 transfer to I because Nikkei is oversold and that is 20% of I according to the TSP info on tsp.gov The dollar index is fluctuating from 77.2 -78.2 and that concerns me a little. If it makes a run it would wipe out any I gains.

I am expecting a reverse in the American markets tomorrow (based on bad earnings reports coming and existing home sales report), and possibly Europe to falter later in the day. Particularily if their gain is too large today. So I am not sure how much I gain there might be. And I am not sure where we stand on the +/- FV. Kind of like gambling.