Thread: Uptrend's Account Talk

Congratulations on your excellent performance on the Autotracker. Here's hoping that you can achieve returns as good (or even better) in 2015.

Best wishes,

John

Having a lousy start for 2015, thanks to the oil hacks. My Uptrend system is almost to the tipping point of a sell, but is hung up on several metrics. If the market can reverse right here, we are good to go for a run up. However, SPX 2012 is the last line in the sand. Right now we have SPX 2022 with a doji star, which could turn into a bullish harami or could indicate a pause in a continued downtrend. Riding the storm for now. Get used to the 2015 volatility, because there will probably be a lot of it.

Any idea why 2000 SPX looks like the magic number today as opposed to 2012 and 2020 like you spoke of below...

Strange market behavior the last few days, but I attribute most of it to options behavior. We might have a tradable bottom either today or tomorrow, and if the US dollar keeps falling this will support oil. The EW are difficult to decipher on SPX, but as long as 1972.56 stays intact the bull lives. So I would not be concerned if your 2015 TSP earnings look like mine at -0.xxx something. Based on some of my other indicators, this does not look like a downtrend. Sentiment has turned negative, which also should support stocks.

The first support area on SPX is approaching near the 1973-1956 area and there should be a pretty good bounce. The VIX is below a major resistance line going back to 2008 and will probably run away from it on its first try, rather than breaking out as shown on the monthly chart below. Also note that the VIX down volume is greater than the up volume for the month, suggesting selling. The 5 period RSI on the VIX is now overbought, but not overly so. My sentiment indicator is nearing a turn, and there is a strong up/down volume divergence on the NYSE and a very weak one on the NASDAQ. I expect the US dollar to turn down within the month or so, and this will support oil and commodities and may support gold and mining stocks.

Just a small voice from the middle of the tracker pack at -2.40% Felt like I woke up and got clobbered. Oh well, I am putting on my boxing gloves.

VIXA.jpg

I hope the USD takes a breather and it helps miners... the one I am in is getting (or continues to get) clobbered

Getting an "early" buy signal today. My Uptrend system has not flipped green yet, but expect it to....soon. The I fund is looking strong

Originally Posted by Uptrend

The I fund is looking strong

Figures, that's the one I omitted this go round

The I fund has been doing well consistently. Time to get some I fund?

Originally Posted by pmaloney

The I fund has been doing well consistently. Time to get some I fund?

Right on!! I have to admit I was asleep at the wheel for the last few weeks while the EFA was secretly changing. It was previously a descending triangle, but now looks as if it wants to change it's ways and go test the upper sloping line. What I like about this weekly EFA chart below is that there is very good support under it. And there has already been a number of hits on the upper line, so now would be the time to shine. Grabbed 40% I today, and if the ECB QE goes as planned, we should see a breakout. Notice the double bottom, RSI and MACD histogram near neutral but trending up and a rising sto. All the ingredients for a bull. The lower BB is turning up also, but the upper BB needs to go sideways now as it is still descending. I may go 100% I if the breakout occurs on this chart. Of course anything is possible including one more test of the lower sloping line so there is no such thing as being left out (but there is such a thing as being burned). Tomorrow is always another trading opportunity.

My uptrend system (which is normally very reliable) has not flipped green yet. My sentiment indicator is lined up for upside however.

EFA_1_21_15.jpg

My Uptrend system is still in "buy and hold" mode, but negative divergences are appearing. Also, my sentiment system is nearing an extreme, where a sudden drop could occur, based on past similarities. So today, Monday February 23, I will watch the open, but probably jump on the bonds (F) boat. AGG is oversold and looking like a trend change. Started the new year at the very bottom of the tracker (due to one flub), but now nearing the 500 mark. Decisions, decisions on the number of stocks I am holding out there. Trying to figure out which way oil is going (with everyone else), but supply/demand says it should be down. IMO we have not seen the bottom, but it depends on how fast some of the American rigs shut down. Not willing to gamble to short oil, but am long on some major airlines as an indirect short. Gold looks primed for a pop, but am only watching. We may be arriving at a turning point for a down cycle for several weeks. Momentum is king.