Thread: Uptrend's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Uptrend

Here is the S fund roadmap, tracked by $EMW. In the big picture I believe the market is in a downtrend of the ABC form. Primary wave A just completed at 923 and now primary wave B is underway. As seen on the figure, the most probable upward targets are somewhere between 990-1006. For an extreme rally we could see 1028 and 975 for a short rally. Based on the 957 close today that is approximately a 3.4-5.1% gain for a typical rally, 7.4% for extreme and 1.8% for a short rally. In terms of time I expect the rally to be over on Nov 3, but could extend to mid Nov for an extreme rally. In the big picture I believe we are still in a bull market, just some healthy bleeding and tax loss selling. I will have more to say later about where I think the bull will resume. Just keep in mind that primary wave C will probably extend further than primary wave A, and so points much lower when this downtrend is over. IMO this is the best chance till Christmas in the TSP to polish off the gains. GLTA

Just missed the top 10 on the overall tracker, coming in at 11 today, but #1 on the non PS tracker. Thanks Firegal for stepping aside! Now who will knock me off the podium is the question??

Attachment 30693

Your timing om your last two moves (into F and then into S yesterday) was absolutely superb Uptrend! Congratulations!!!!

Congratulations Uptrend, very jealous.

My Uptrend System posted a buy today at the close for the C and S funds. This system makes very few trades; only about 6-10 a year and is perfect for the TSP limited IFT trade opportunities. You may have noticed that I did front-run the buy signal by 2 days because of indisputable evidence of an impending trend change, on a probability basis. It is always a game of probability, because a black swan could descend at any time with a 5-20% daily loss which is a sobering thought. As with all systems that use data, enough information needs to be collected in order to determine if there is any pattern or just noise. Also it is difficult to program all the relevant factors into a system without a lot of work. This is where the human computer and brainpower come into use.

The 30 minute SPX chart shows that the market had a weak close with a high volume selling bar. Weekend jitters? It appears that the angle of take-off on Thursday is too steep to be sustainable. Further the inverse mirroring $VIX broke below the upwards trendline on Thursday that could be back-tested. The support area for SPX is 1864-1860 from angling and horizontal support. Also, the market has entered a period of increased volatility and big spikes are followed by still large, but smaller moves. It is like throwing a rock into a pond; as the ripples go outward the wave amplitude decreases with distance. In this case, think of time as distance. Big moves are followed by mirrored moves but the amplitude is decreasing.

So, if you missed the first opportunity to get in, Monday should provide another chance. The evidence suggests the market may open red.

SPX_10_17_14.jpg

Originally Posted by Uptrend

Here is the S fund roadmap, tracked by $EMW. In the big picture I believe the market is in a downtrend of the ABC form. Primary wave A just completed at 923 and now primary wave B is underway. As seen on the figure, the most probable upward targets are somewhere between 990-1006. For an extreme rally we could see 1028 and 975 for a short rally. Based on the 957 close today that is approximately a 3.4-5.1% gain for a typical rally, 7.4% for extreme and 1.8% for a short rally. In terms of time I expect the rally to be over on Nov 3, but could extend to mid Nov for an extreme rally. In the big picture I believe we are still in a bull market, just some healthy bleeding and tax loss selling. I will have more to say later about where I think the bull will resume. Just keep in mind that primary wave C will probably extend further than primary wave A, and so points much lower when this downtrend is over. IMO this is the best chance till Christmas in the TSP to polish off the gains. GLTA

Just missed the top 10 on the overall tracker, coming in at 11 today, but #1 on the non PS tracker. Thanks Firegal for stepping aside! Now who will knock me off the podium is the question??

Attachment 30693

Uptrend,

I am following your excellent work with respect to the S fund roadmap, as tracked by $EMW. You expect the rally to end on Nov. 03, but it could extend to mid Nov. in an extended rally. When is the Fed going to announce their decision on the QE matter? Isn't it close to Nov. 3? Tia.

Originally Posted by airlift

Uptrend,

I am following your excellent work with respect to the S fund roadmap, as tracked by $EMW. You expect the rally to end on Nov. 03, but it could extend to mid Nov. in an extended rally. When is the Fed going to announce their decision on the QE matter? Isn't it close to Nov. 3? Tia.

Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Fed Fisher from Dallas wants to end QE but not so sure from Yellen. At any rate I think it's already priced in. Looking at $ EMW a different way we could get a back test off 200 SMA currently at 1009. SPX is taking a long time to get back above its 200 SMA and each day it stays down supports a more corrective market view.

Originally Posted by Uptrend

Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Fed Fisher from Dallas wants to end QE but not so sure from Yellen. At any rate I think it's already priced in. Looking at $ EMW a different way we could get a back test off 200 SMA currently at 1009. SPX is taking a long time to get back above its 200 SMA and each day it stays down supports a more corrective market view.

Today the SPX appears to have broken out to the upside comfortably from an inverse H&S formation (closing at 1904.01). We will probably clear the 200dma tomorrow. Cross fingers!

Wow, missing a +3% move, I really thought it would flatline and not just bounce.....Oh well, tomorrow will be interesting.

Nice gap up on SPX today. We all know gaps get refilled sooner or later. I expect an ABC move up from the 1820 low, A-1820-1898, B-1898-1877 and now C-1877-1955 (for equality with wave A), or 1925 (0.618x wave A). This ABC move would be within a larger primary ABC move. When this first up-leg completes, I expect a retracement between 1904-1885 to 1889-1874. If you missed the first chance to get in, this will be the final boarding call. Patience is key here.

Originally Posted by Uptrend

Nice gap up on SPX today. We all know gaps get refilled sooner or later. I expect an ABC move up from the 1820 low, A-1820-1898, B-1898-1877 and now C-1877-1955 (for equality with wave A), or 1925 (0.618x wave A). This ABC move would be within a larger primary ABC move. When this first up-leg completes, I expect a retracement between 1904-1885 to 1889-1874. If you missed the first chance to get in, this will be the final boarding call. Patience is key here.

Are you planning to sell at ~1950 and then wait for the retracement to get back in around 1890? Or ride it out?

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Are you planning to sell at ~1950 and then wait for the retracement to get back in around 1890? Or ride it out?

Depends on timing and available ITF's. I expect a turn down and back up before months end so I will probably ride the trend because I don't have any ITF to give.

Originally Posted by Uptrend

Depends on timing and available ITF's. I expect a turn down and back up before months end so I will probably ride the trend because I don't have any ITF to give.

Haha. Well, given your recent track record (amazing!!!!!) please by all means let those of us who do have an IFT left, when to get in once it turns down.