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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #889

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    Default Re: Pseudoscience

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Great read, I like that guy, I'm adding him to my daily read list
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #890

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    Default Re: Pseudoscience

    I was thinking I could catch some of you...

    But, being the predators you all are, you are jumping into equities...

    I need some dumb money around here or I will never bump up the AutoTracker rank...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #891

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    Question Where is all that dumb money!!!

    I was thinking I could catch some of you...

    But, being the predators you all are, you are jumping into equities...

    I need some dumb money around here or I will never bump up the AutoTracker rank...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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  7. #892

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    Exclamation Black Swan...

    Well, MH370 pinged a satellite hours later than last noted...
    Apparently, nobody has military or civilian radar contact with the plane after Malaysia...
    Also, Malaysian military radar indicates that the plane climbed above it's safe ceiling and then descended and changed direction...

    Why hasn't the following question been answered:
    We know what the fuel load should have been (thus its range limit), what was the actual fuel load?

    I am also interested in the rate of change as the plane ascended. If graceful than perhaps one of the pilots did it while the other was asleep or otherwise tasked. I don't know how obvious it is as a plane exceeds its safe zone. It might be sudden or it might be something noticeable. This could imply a deceitful attempt to knock out the pilot or copilot along with the rest of the crew or passengers. So, would a rapid rise. And, if not fully successful, than the descent could imply some sort of conflict that was won by the bad guys.

    A satellite ping now places the plane the plane somewhere in the two red arcs:

    MAL370_PingJPG.JPG

    I am guessing that the arc gap is excluded because radar would have picked up the plane in this region. There was no reading from the plane one hour later - when the next satellite was available. The hijack scenario is now the most likely...

    I don't like what I see for the northwest path. Not at all. I don't like it that the plane seemed to avoid radar. Not at all. I also don't like it that lots of military fighting assets are now in use for the search. I expect that - you bring everything to bear - but assets without real search capabilities seem to be on the move and the Chinese seem very concerned. I am concerned about Iran. That northwest zone is very troubling.

    I wish I was not invested 80%. Yowser...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  9. #893

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Yes this whole thing is very interesting. With the available information that is out there for "our" eyes to see it does seem like the thing was hijacked. To what end is anyone's guess. There is enough stuff orbiting this planet that looks down on it that I would think someone, someplace has more information. 777's don't just vanish.

    I am glad I am not in equities right now. A Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine could be a black swan event and this missing plane thing has the potential to be a black duck.

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  11. #894

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Quote Originally Posted by CrabClaw View Post
    Yes this whole thing is very interesting. With the available information that is out there for "our" eyes to see it does seem like the thing was hijacked. To what end is anyone's guess. There is enough stuff orbiting this planet that looks down on it that I would think someone, someplace has more information. 777's don't just vanish.

    I am glad I am not in equities right now. A Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine could be a black swan event and this missing plane thing has the potential to be a black duck.
    CrabClaw,

    I have seen satellite imagery for GIS work. The public stuff - which is actually quite good. I do not think a satellite would be useful in this case. I don't think they use satellites to track aircraft via sensors. They may come in useful for locating either wreckage or - if the aircraft landed - the plane itself. However, even that would be pure luck. In the case of a landing you would have to have a satellite interested in that section at that time - otherwise you would have to direct one of the pointable satellites to that region. Both of those would require knowledge of where the plane is. Both would become assets after the fact.

    Also, there could be two Black Swans. Since we are likely to write-off the poor souls in the Crimean and the Baltics than I do not see anything other than huffing and puffing. Can anyone imagine a tough response from either America or Europe to Putin grabbing some territory? Me neither.

    But, a civilian aircraft - refueled, repainted, loaded with explosives and passengers - and professionally flown in a manner not likely to elicit a military response could be a very different thing. The very worst thing would be that plane being a stealth nuke. Trinity occurred July 16, 1945, the first atomic device was used August 6, 1945. And, folks in the know have been marking time for Iran creating weapons. Stealth need not be something invisible to radar, it could be something unimaginable being spotted on radar and not intercepted.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  13. #895

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Folks, two things...

    Read 'The Fourth Turning' and always read 'The Belmont Club'...

    Today they sing together in perfect harmony!!!

    Uh oh...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  15. #896

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Folks, two things...

    Read 'The Fourth Turning' and always read 'The Belmont Club'...

    Today they sing together in perfect harmony!!!

    Uh oh...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #897

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Like I don't have enough to worry about? Have a Coke and a smile!
    "Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends...

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  19. #898

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Folks, two things...

    Read 'The Fourth Turning' and always read 'The Belmont Club'...

    Today they sing together in perfect harmony!!!

    Uh oh...

    Read 4th turning probably 10 years ago, remembered it's projections to this day, have been seeing it coming for years now.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  21. #899

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    Smile Knocking Some of the Variance Off...

    Well,

    I allowed some (all :~{) of this years gains to wash away. But, it was only 2 and a half points anyway...

    Regardless, today's flat market gives me a chance to remove some variance from my allocation. Going to a standard conservative allocation:

    G: 12%
    F: 27%
    C: 37%
    S: 13%
    I: 11%

    Average Annual Return: 5%
    Variance/Risk: 7%

    This move lops a point off of return and two points off of risk. It also places me into one of Ric Edelman's portfolio allocations. Science
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #900

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    Exclamation "No Mas!!!"

    Re(1): 'The Outlines of the Monster', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

    The ulcers of the Obama years are now festering. The menaces, once so vague, are taking on a definite shape. America may potentially face severe security challenges in Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Poland, Baltics), Southwest Asia (Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan), the Middle East (Syria, Yemen, Iraq), North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Sub-sahara) and East Asia (South China Sea, North Korea, Taiwan and Japan). All of these hotspots are simmering, though none as yet have blown up into an severe international crisis.

    But in each of these theaters the design margin is ebbing away. The potential for danger in each of them is growing and in time they will flow into each other. For American resources that must rush to meet one of them cannot also meet the other. Once the trouble starts in one place, the bad actors in other places will seize their chance for mischief.

    Nor do we see a president tirelessly organizing the bulwarks of democracy at every threatened point, unless he is doing so from the golf course or at fund raisers. It is in this context that Obama’s rambling “defense policy” speech at West Point should be understood.

    It was his “no mas” speech, to quote Roberto Duran.
    The 'end of history' is so 1990s!!!
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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