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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #985

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Just thinking.
    Just sitting in the tall grass.
    Looking around, hunting might be good.
    The chase could be invigorating.


    LionInTallGrass.jpg

    Kinda hungry after sitting around so long.
    Gotta stretch the legs, But that last morsel is still being chewed on.
    Are the weak still out there, or have they been flushed out - I can't tell
    But, yummy tasty morsels on the hoof are hard to resist - just don't want to be one.


    My current 40/0/27/23/10 allocation results in:

    Expected Return: 7.51% (4.79% after inflation)
    Expected Risk: 10.58%

    I am thinking of culling the herd at 4/21/32/29/14 for a bit more sustenance:

    Expected Return: 8.94% (6.18% after inflation)
    Expected Risk: 13.05%

    The S&P500 0/0/100/0/0 allocation results in:

    Expected Return: 10.28% (7.48% after inflation)
    Expected Risk: 17.78%

    Is greed good? Do I need the additional risk of just burning energy to meet my goals? Am I scared of the poachers out there that want to sell my left third claw to some Chinese dude with small hands and a Napoleon complex? All true, all very true. So I think I will lounge around, watching for the weak, and see what happens in a few days.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #986

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    Lightbulb Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Well, a bad report doesn't faze things. Want to be more in-the-market, but waiting for a dip. I've been waiting too long. Here goes:

    • G: 4% - Standard Edelman allocation (kinda dumb in our environment)
    • F: 21% - That knife keeps sitting on the table. Kinda barbaric not to use it
    • C: 32% - Safish allocation
    • S: 29% - This one should attain me some alpha - or hurt if the market fails
    • I: 14% - I'm simply not paying attention

    Annual Return: 8.91%
    Expected Variance: 13.05%
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #987

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    Exclamation Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Re(1): 'The Year of Disillusion', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

    Fernandez has been integrating the concept of 'design margin' into his discussions. While he does not directly use the concept in this article, that concept lays insidiously behind the scenes.

    By the same token Trump or Cruz can try to bring back the jobs, but it won't be easy; it certainly won't be quick. Although Labor's Jeremy Corbyn has promised to keep the steel works open with government money, in much the same way as Sanders or the CTU [Boghie: Chicago Teacher's Union] or California would mandate increases to solve the downward mobility problem perhaps enough people are beginning to realize this no longer works if ever it did. The parties are selling merchandise that is no longer in production.
    Beware of promises that cannot be met...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  6.  
  7. #988

    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Hey Boghie--I just wanted to say hi. I apologize for checking out so long from the TSP Talk site. Been very busy with a lot of stuff. But it's good. I'm going to try to stay more active on the site. Hope you're doing well! God bless.
    2 Corinthians 5:21

  8.  
  9. #989

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ContrarianJeff View Post
    Hey Boghie--I just wanted to say hi. I apologize for checking out so long from the TSP Talk site. Been very busy with a lot of stuff. But it's good. I'm going to try to stay more active on the site. Hope you're doing well! God bless.
    Anyone around here notice our silent Contrarian's returns this year...

    Anyway, I am trying to take advantage of dumb money moving around with this IFT allocation:

    • G: 0% - moving this basically to I to overweight the I
    • F: 20% - some Eurotrash panic money will be moving here.
    • C: 32% - Holding this
    • S: 30% - Basically holding this
    • I: 18% - Overweighting this


    CAGR: 10.40%
    Risk: 14.63%
    Best: 35.48%
    Worst: -29.09%
    Max Drawdown: -30.75%

    Thoughts: The I fund is Developed International. That includes Japan. It still includes a Britain that no longer has to subsidize the retired at work French 'employees'. It still includes Germany and the Netherlands who will probably want to bail from the EU soon - that will be another chance to overweight. If the EU remained a trading and financial block than I think it should remain - but when it became a political mess than I think it better to break up. I kinda like Britain's future now that they dumped the politicians clinging on the EU...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #990

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Well that has been yummy. My tummy is all full. I'll just sit here in the tall grass and sun myself all weekend long

    That number on the left side of my Account Balance just bumped up. I like that. I very much like that.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


  12.  
  13. #991

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    Cool Re: Boghies Account Talk

    I allowed the Trump Rally to overweight my allocation to risk a little. Very yummy. Who could have guessed that the market would make such a strong move when an anti-business president is replaced by a pro-business president elect. Who would have known.

    • G: 0% - Why sit in cash
    • F: 17% - The equities market has moved strongly. This thing dropped a bit as well
    • C: 33% - Market strength is overweighting this from the super science allocation
    • S: 32% - Market strength is overweighting this from the super science allocation
    • I: 18% - This one is just holding its own


    CAGR: 9.04%
    Risk: 13.19%
    Best: 31.64%
    Worst: -30.33%
    Max Drawdown: -44.87%

    Go Trump. Uuuhhhhhhh
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #992

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    What a boring market to trade in...

    Just sit around and eat caviar, drink champagne, and smoke weed. Even a Lib can do it...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #993

    Join Date
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    inland Northwest
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Welcome back Boghie, missed you around here.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

  18.  
  19. #994

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Geez,

    My allocation seems to be a sweet spot. When equities 'crash' my Flunky Bonds go up a bit. I was thinking F would crash, but not so much. In fact, my current allocation percentages have barely moved.

    My IFTs have been non-existent. Very happy with this allocation. How boring...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  20.  
  21. #995

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Geez,

    My allocation seems to be a sweet spot. When equities 'crash' my Flunky Bonds go up a bit. I was thinking F would crash, but not so much. In fact, my current allocation percentages have barely moved.

    My IFTs have been non-existent. Very happy with this allocation. How boring...
    Hello Boghie. I was in San Diego last week, but was too busy to try and reach out to anyone. How are you doing?

  22.  
  23. #996

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    Exclamation Re: Boghies Account Talk

    The Trump rally is petering out. Trump is a Clinton era conservative Democrat who believes in well run big government. Somewhere down the line we will find that big gubmint is dumb at the core. Maybe this summer!!!

    •G: 39% - Interest is now 2.5% and growing. Kinda sucks, but doesn't suck as bad as it used to.
    •F: 14% - Still waiting for the correction. Don't like. Sucks lots
    •C: 20% - Obama bozo'd economy already corrected. Now it is almost the Trump economy. Don't know, probably needs a downside correction.
    •S: 15% - Obama bozo'd economy already corrected. Now it is almost the Trump economy. Don't know, probably needs a downside correction.
    •I: 12% - Kinda sucks. These socialists need a smackdown - which is likely coming.

    Gotta get home to get the projected stats. This is more or less a conservative allocation that shows little confidence in the 'F Fund'
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  24.  
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