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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #925

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Exclamation Re: Black Swan...

    Re(1): ' Obama and Commodus - Life and Death on the Frontier', The American Interest, Jakub Grygiel

    The wise lost to the sycophants. Commodus returned to Rome.

    And what a return it was! The Emperor was greeted as a peacemaker, the embodiment of the dreams of all, the sign of Roman greatness and progress.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  3. #926

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Boghie, I love reading your belmont articles. I also really enjoyed another article that was linked at the bottom of your Commodus article. thought-provoking on another topic entirely, but one that gets a lot of attention around here as well. What Americans Won’t Learn About Health Care - The American Interest

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  5. #927

    Join Date
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    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Fergeson WHO? this is really stupid! If it had been a White boy/man would it have been on the news?
    Last edited by nnuut; 10-13-2014 at 10:20 AM.




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  7. #928

    Default Re: Heed Me Amoeba...

    What the hell is special about a BLACK PERSON?
    Ask one's mom. Do you know any?

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  9. #929

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    Fergeson WHO? this is really stupid! If it had been a White boy/man would it have been on the news?
    Eh, I don't think there was anything about Fergeson in the American Interest article.

    And, Alevin, I am not Richard Fernandez - the author of 'The Belmont Club'. I wish I was in many ways. He is brilliant on so many topics. In any room both he and I are in I am confident that I am not the smartest person in the room. Same with Walter Russell Mead, Mark Steyn, Glenn Reynolds, Steven den Beste, the Sandmen and many others I link to here along with a few whose posts have gone down the memory hole. I have to say there are those on this site I pale to. But, because I am very cocky I will not admit to that or to who they are...

    Just to prove my point, here are a few of the most important posts ever placed on the internet:

    and, for we Gubmint Slugs, this is a very important dose of reality:
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #930

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    I apologize I posted that in your thread by mistake and in the * Furgerson thread, TOO MUCH WINE!drinking%20all%20the%20time.gif



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  13. #931

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    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  15. #932

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    Lightbulb Investing Into the Falling Knife.

    It is dumb to invest into a falling knife. I don't like the slope of the charts, but you have to be in to win and I have a plan!!!

    G: 22%
    F: 32%
    C: 26%
    S: 10%
    I: 10%

    Expected Return: 5% over inflation
    Expected Risk: 6%

    I have added a point more to expected risk for the benefit of a point more expected return. That point of risk is also a point more in growth on the high side. Anyway, I would really like a real tool rather than Quicken for blending the risk/return of the funds into an allocation number - but, I got what I got. Looked around the web and found something, but its results were way out of line. Oh well...

    So, why invest now... Because this does not feel like 2008. It feels like a normal 10% - 15% correction or even a little sell off. Leaning toward a correction because of that slope thang, but... Regardless, unless this blows through 12% - 15% than it will turn around. This allocation should limit my YToD loss to something around -3% or so in a Bear Market. I can live with that.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #933

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    Default Re: Investing Into the Falling Knife.

    I don't know what swimwear this will result in, but I am scared. Basically, I believe the F is topped out and equities are in a mini-permabull. Thus, I am a little more in than a standard moderate allocation - but not in my bullish allocation.

    G: 12%
    F: 17%
    C: 41%
    S: 15%
    I: 15%

    Expected Return: 6% over inflation
    Expected Risk: 8%

    The Return/Risk is kinda guessed. I don't have my tools handy and spent Sunday drinking beer rather than number crunching my IFT. My best guess is the 6/8 though...

    In the end - Burro - all this move did was migrate 15% of my assets held in G/F to C/S/I with the biggest migration to C/I. I like the I for the same reason BT does - it is beat down. Buy low (I), sell high (F)!!!
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  19. #934

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    Lightbulb Because JPCavin Asked!!!

    Being old and slow – actually very old and slow, I didn't read a message sent to me till just now…

    What is the CAGR/IRR? And, how does it relate to the investor?

    Well, the Compound Annual Growth Rate/Internal Rate of Return (same thing) is a way of calculating your real returns while incorporating variance (risk). Risk is not necessarily scary unless you are learning about it in 2008 like I did. It can be a good thing because it is in reality variance. Variance from the center point (your average return) to the upside is a good thing – a very good thing. Variance to the downside is not so good. Here is the generally accepted formula for CAGR/IRR:

    CAGR_Equation.JPG

    See how it factors in the risk of investing. Why it matters is discussed in the MoneyChimp website. Cactus has had a very good discussion on this as well. Basically, demanding a CAGR from a purveyor of some mutual fund or asset management account can help you determine a risk adjusted annualized return. That is, an allocation that has big swings will have its average return reduced more than one whose variance is smoother. Me likes that. It means that I will not get taken by some chump selling me something that had a 40% return last year and a -20% the year before and calling it an average return of 10%. The CAGR for that account would be 5.83%. They sell you on 10% returns, do not show you the annual returns, and do not tell you that most bail out when it dumps. The dumpers actually bring the return down even further from the CAGR because they lock in losses.

    So, if we look at my most recent blather in poor Burro’s thread we see that my:
    • Length of Review: 6 years, 10 months
    • Average Return: 9.40%
    • Risk (Variance): 13.34%
    • CAGR or IRR: 8.59%

    Is it more proper to sell my allocations as 9.40% which kinda discounts 2008 and 2011 or 8.59% which factors those years in a bit better.
    Now let us look at JPCavin’s numbers because she asked:

    • Length of Review: 3 years, 10 months
    • Average Return: 14.06%
    • Risk (Variance): 9.59%
    • CAGR or IRR: 13.66%

    And compare those to the ‘C Fund’:
    • Length of Review: 3 years, 10 months
    • Average Return: 15.42%
    • Risk (Variance): 12.74%
    • CAGR or IRR: 14.72%

    What that means JPCavin is that your allocation is taking quite a bit of the variance out of the returns for a small reduction in the average return. However, take this with a huge twenty pound grain of salt. The market has done nothing but go up the past four years and four years is a small sampling size – as is my posted seven years. We old geezers have been embarrassed by documented AutoTracker returns and have had our CAGR ‘adjusted’ by 2008 and 2011. Anyway, your actual long term returns would center at 7% (pre-inflation) and have a variance/risk of 11%. Thus, you have been riding the tide – but it is smart to ride the tide when the tide is coming in. Yummy. But, that means that a normal correction would set you back between -2% through – 13%. Better than just holding a single equity fund, but worse than mixing in some bonds. You are actually wearing dental floss for a swimsuit, but it you are young enough (retire 2050+) and/or fit enough (your six-pack stomach can handle the churn of 2002 – 2003, 2008 without locking in your losses) you will do great. If the second the market dumps by 10% you skip the brazilian, the bikini, the one piece and pull on the full coverage burka than you might want to take some of the long term risk out by holding a little G/F. If you are older than a puppy with thirty years of hard labor ahead of you than you might want to hold a little G/F. If you are in your 50's or 60's than a normal correction will take YEARS off your retirement income. Otherwise, I ain't got no problem with the lovely ladies getting a serious tan. No problem at all - I might join you soon.

    Not recommending bonds, they seem topy. But normally they take some of the variance out an allocation. Just keep a watch. If the market corrects (say 10%) than grab some G and maybe F to smooth things out. That is market timing to some extent, but bonds right now seem much more risky than stock to me…
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #935

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    Lightbulb Looking for a Brazillian Cut Bikini...

    Well folks, my current allocation (pre-IFT) has all the risk of a brazillian cut bikini (10) but the performance a step more conservative. Why romp around showing so much cheek when nobody wants to look - yuk, yuk. I upgraded my Quicken to 2015 - which seems to have changed the 'Risk' number quite a bit so I had to reconfigure against the L Funds. Regardless, after looking deeply into Quicken and the L Funds it has become apparent that the G Fund is a very good alternative to the current F Fund - which is returning pennies over the G excepting capital gains. And, how long can this be going on, how long. My guess is not very much longer. So, given the Christmas Season I have decided to don a better fit which emphasizes my assets better while not taking the risk of holding the frothy stuff. Anyway:

    • G: 12%
    • F: 8%
    • C: 42%
    • S: 19%
    • I: 19%

    • Expected Return: 6% over inflation
    • Expected Risk: 10%


    Last week the 'Expected Risk' would have been 8%. I am still trying to track on it. My marker is the S&P500 which still holds a 7/16 Return/Risk. Adding inflation that means ~10/16 which still rings true and fairly closely matches MoneyChimps 11/17 numbers from 1957 onward.

    Also, considering that the G Fund is returning >2% at the same time that the actual internal F Fund returns about 2% I will overweight G in relation to F. At our low bond rates we cannot really count on share appreciation very much longer. That is where the F Fund is making it's money nowadays. I do not want to count on that now that we are no longer QEing anything and just waiting for a rate increase.

    Note: If you are confused or scared of the reference to Brazillian Cut Bikini's on a guy than please review Burrocrat's Ark posts. It scares me too, but even more scary are the chaps wearing burkas on the beautiful warm beaches of T.A.H.I.T.I..
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #936

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    Default Re: Looking for a Brazillian Cut Bikini...

    Last post didn't take hold. Wondering if I can post after the brazillian cut thang...

    Yup, can do
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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