Thread: Boghies Account Talk

It didn't have to happen again...

Today we are witnessing a revival of glamour of authoritarianism unequaled since the dark days of the Second World War. The villains are gathering in all the best places getting all the best service. There’s no shortage of people ready to play the bad guys. And so it will remain until someone somewhere screws up the courage to play the good guy — which in the first instance means playing the rube, playing the fool — the role that America used to specialize in. You might even say the bad guys are waiting around for this character to appear, so history can start in earnest.

Heed Me Amoeba...
I have foretold Doom...
Doom I say, Doom is Coming...

We crashed 0.04% today in the 'C Fund'
The mark of the beast is just 1,294 points away
To just break even we will have to gain 0.73 points. Too much

I can't handle it so I jumped out the window. But, dammit, I work of the first floor.

Originally Posted by Boghie

Heed Me Amoeba...
I have foretold Doom...
Doom I say, Doom is Coming...

We crashed 0.04% today in the 'C Fund'
The mark of the beast is just 1,294 points away
To just break even we will have to gain 0.73 points. Too much

I can't handle it so I jumped out the window. But, dammit, I work of the first floor. At least you don't work in the basement. you would have had to crawl out of the window just to fall down.

Got a little lucky in the S fund today. Sorry about the C fund. Depending on the size of your account that could be less than $100.00. Let's hope July is good for all of us.

4thOfJuly.jpg

BTW, come on Libs - you gotta admit it is funny

HT: Carpe Diem, AEIdeas and Maggies Farm

Originally Posted by Boghie

It didn't have to happen again...

That and Collectivism are Brothers and Sisters, they are sitting on our chests squeezing the freedom from our lungs! There must be an insecticide for these insects?

When the police leave a violent town more than enforcement leaves. Behold:

The received Western wisdom is that an Ebola epidemic is best controlled by quarantine and contact monitoring. You know, with isolation wards and databases and non-available disposable protective clothing in 110 degree heat. In a word, through a program of action which Africa is singularly unable to carry out. African officialdom lives by lies, faking documents and jumping the queue. Like some American political parties, that is how they handle crisis. That’s how they’ll handle this one.

With the hospitals gone, they are now “sending troops” to isolate the disease. More likely than not the troops will themselves carry the virus and since no one can stop armed men, they will go where they like.

Yowser...

By the way, The Belmont Club has been tremendous lately. Not in a happy way, but discussing things we should all be aware of...

Over time my allocation went from an Expected Return of 5% with an Expected Risk of 6% to 4%/6%.

I am taking advantage of this little up-blip to run to a bit of safety. This is now my allocation:

G: 22%
F: 32%
C: 26%
S: 10%
I: 10%

Expected Return: 4% over inflation
Expected Risk: 5%

Building a bit more cash reserves to invest in the better months...

Re(1): 'Man Without a Country', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

The calendar says we’re in the first part of the 21st century. But whether AD or BC nobody has specified.

...

“What are they carrying to their homes? They are carrying their deaths.” When they start feeling bad in a few days it will just be bad luck.

I always thought it important to know fact and reality. At least what can be known. It was important to make decisions using math and science and something other than politics. In our environment - and apparently most environments - politics is the turning of a word. Spin. Spin loses to math. But we chose spin because it sounds so good. Hard decisions are hard, spin is the answer - till it is not.

But, now that spin wins every time can we make the hard decisions. Or, will someone else make the hard decisions and supplant us. Spin does not absolve us of economic fact. Even economic spin cannot do that. Spin does not bring victory against barbarism. Even spin intended to include barbarians in civilization. Spin does not heal the sick. Even the ancient spin of superstition and witchcraft.

Can one make his own good luck in an era of bad luck.

Or are we just spinning.

Re(1): 'The Poverty of Ideas', The American Interest, Roger Berkowitz

Again, a similar theme... It is past time to move past the spin of WingNuts and Moonbats... They no longer matter...

Critical theory, as Geuss understands it, is a relentless uncovering of the oppression. Thinking is not to be mobilized in the name of justice but in the pursuit of uncovering what is, what Heraclitus called the need to “say what is.”

Over and over today pundits and philosophers seek to offer justifications. They justify the death penalty or argue against it; they justify strong police action, or argue against it; they justify war or drone attacks, or argue against it. In the spirit of Rawls, we are obsessed with justification.

But justification is not justice. Israel can certainly justify its war against Gaza, just as the United States justified its war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In justifying a war, however, we divert attention away from the reality of war; we focus on whether it has met certain criteria of proportionality; we ask if it is fought in offense or defense; and we demand it follow settled rules. In doing so, however, we can ignore the basic reality of the killing and the tragedy that war is.

Geuss ends his essay with the hope that as the failure of the liberal democratic project becomes visible the time might arise for a critical thinking that eschews justification and insists instead on the relentless engagement with reality and the effort to say what is.

My normal 'Conservative' Allocation is (G/F/C/S/I) results in an expected annual return of 5% (over inflation) and an expected standard deviation (risk) of 7%.
My current allocation results in an expected annual return of 4% (over inflation) and an expected standard deviation (risk) of 5%.
It's been a very long time since I sat in this sort of an allocation. But I ain't all out because I guess poorly.

Now, what does this mumbo jumbo mean?

Assuming an inflation rate of 3% than the current allocation should range between +2% and +12% 67% of the time with the highest norms centering on 7%. 95% of the time this allocation will result in an annual return of between -3% and +17%. And, if we get another 2008 or 2013 I the return will be between -8% and +22%. The 'risk' factors I get from Quicken should reflect the fat tails of market investing - but I am not counting on that.

Now, for those folks who are sitting in the 'C Fund' then the same computations are (7%/16%):

• 67% of the time the annual return is between -6% and +26%
• 95% of the time the annual return is between -22% and +42% (2013)
• And 3 deviations result in an annual return is between -38% and +58% (2008)

Now, for those folks who are sitting in the 'S Fund' then the same computations are (8%/20%):

• 67% of the time the annual return is between -9% and +31%
• 95% of the time the annual return is between -29% and +51%
• And 3 deviations result in an annual return is between -49% and +71%

Now, for those folks who are sitting in the 'I Fund' then the same computations are (8%/18%):

• 67% of the time the annual return is between -7% and +29%
• 95% of the time the annual return is between -25% and +47%
• And 3 deviations result in an annual return is between -43% and +65%

Now, for those folks who are sitting in the 'F Fund' then the same computations are (6%/5%):

• 67% of the time the annual return is between +1% and +11%
• 95% of the time the annual return is between -4% and +16%
• And 3 deviations result in an annual return is between -9% and +21%

In my investing lifetime (based on the S&P500 since 1994) I have seen:

To the Negative

• 3 Risk Deviations: 2
• 2 Risk Deviations: 2
• 1 Risk Deviation: 0

To the Positive

• 3 Risk Deviations: 0
• 2 Risk Deviations: 6
• 1 Risk Deviation: 10

Right now doesn't look good to me. I really don't want to participate in a fast moving correction. However, sitting in the 'G Fund' while concerned means I would lose 100% of the growth in months like this past August. My lack of sticky pants resulted in a monthly growth of 1.92% when the market grew by 4.01%. The G budged 0.20% for those of you that sat there because the crystal ball showed Ruskie troops vacationing in Ukraine, ISIS recording decapitations in Syria or Iraq, and Obama golfing while the world burns. This demonstrates why swinging in and out of the market based on something other than pure technicals (not certain about that either) is a losers game. You need to participate in the normal growth markets (like this one as weird as that might sound) to survive the dumps. Playing the Burka/Thong game and making 2% a year is a losers game. If you make 2% in a two factor growth market you are just waiting to be killed in a two/three deviation down market. You simply have no buffer. You have to be right when you are make two points a year because losing 8% in a day wipes out four years. If you are a swinger you have to be in the market much more than you are out of the market and you have to read the market not the Turkish Coffee tea leaves. If you are an allocator you should have a 'normal' allocation and a couple that are less risky and a couple that are more risky to take advantage of the market without destroying your system.

Just thinking.

Boghie, you're awesome----Just sayin!

Peace Brother!