Page 75 of 78 FirstFirst ... 25657374757677 ... LastLast
Results 889 to 900 of 932
Like Tree132Likes

Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #889
    JTH's Avatar
    JTH
    JTH is offline TSP Elite Reputation: 5446
    Likes received: 2226
    Likes given: 2297
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    6,492
    Blog Entries
    193

    Default Re: Pseudoscience

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Great read, I like that guy, I'm adding him to my daily read list

  2.  
  3. #890
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Default Re: Pseudoscience

    I was thinking I could catch some of you...

    But, being the predators you all are, you are jumping into equities...

    I need some dumb money around here or I will never bump up the AutoTracker rank...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #891
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Question Where is all that dumb money!!!

    I was thinking I could catch some of you...

    But, being the predators you all are, you are jumping into equities...

    I need some dumb money around here or I will never bump up the AutoTracker rank...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


  6.  
  7. #892
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Exclamation Black Swan...

    Well, MH370 pinged a satellite hours later than last noted...
    Apparently, nobody has military or civilian radar contact with the plane after Malaysia...
    Also, Malaysian military radar indicates that the plane climbed above it's safe ceiling and then descended and changed direction...

    Why hasn't the following question been answered:
    We know what the fuel load should have been (thus its range limit), what was the actual fuel load?

    I am also interested in the rate of change as the plane ascended. If graceful than perhaps one of the pilots did it while the other was asleep or otherwise tasked. I don't know how obvious it is as a plane exceeds its safe zone. It might be sudden or it might be something noticeable. This could imply a deceitful attempt to knock out the pilot or copilot along with the rest of the crew or passengers. So, would a rapid rise. And, if not fully successful, than the descent could imply some sort of conflict that was won by the bad guys.

    A satellite ping now places the plane the plane somewhere in the two red arcs:

    MAL370_PingJPG.JPG

    I am guessing that the arc gap is excluded because radar would have picked up the plane in this region. There was no reading from the plane one hour later - when the next satellite was available. The hijack scenario is now the most likely...

    I don't like what I see for the northwest path. Not at all. I don't like it that the plane seemed to avoid radar. Not at all. I also don't like it that lots of military fighting assets are now in use for the search. I expect that - you bring everything to bear - but assets without real search capabilities seem to be on the move and the Chinese seem very concerned. I am concerned about Iran. That northwest zone is very troubling.

    I wish I was not invested 80%. Yowser...
    RealMoneyIssues likes this.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #893
    CrabClaw's Avatar
    CrabClaw is offline Club TSP Reputation: 1848
    Likes received: 593
    Likes given: 1981
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    1,692

    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Yes this whole thing is very interesting. With the available information that is out there for "our" eyes to see it does seem like the thing was hijacked. To what end is anyone's guess. There is enough stuff orbiting this planet that looks down on it that I would think someone, someplace has more information. 777's don't just vanish.

    I am glad I am not in equities right now. A Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine could be a black swan event and this missing plane thing has the potential to be a black duck.
    Greensboro likes this.

  10.  
  11. #894
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Quote Originally Posted by CrabClaw View Post
    Yes this whole thing is very interesting. With the available information that is out there for "our" eyes to see it does seem like the thing was hijacked. To what end is anyone's guess. There is enough stuff orbiting this planet that looks down on it that I would think someone, someplace has more information. 777's don't just vanish.

    I am glad I am not in equities right now. A Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine could be a black swan event and this missing plane thing has the potential to be a black duck.
    CrabClaw,

    I have seen satellite imagery for GIS work. The public stuff - which is actually quite good. I do not think a satellite would be useful in this case. I don't think they use satellites to track aircraft via sensors. They may come in useful for locating either wreckage or - if the aircraft landed - the plane itself. However, even that would be pure luck. In the case of a landing you would have to have a satellite interested in that section at that time - otherwise you would have to direct one of the pointable satellites to that region. Both of those would require knowledge of where the plane is. Both would become assets after the fact.

    Also, there could be two Black Swans. Since we are likely to write-off the poor souls in the Crimean and the Baltics than I do not see anything other than huffing and puffing. Can anyone imagine a tough response from either America or Europe to Putin grabbing some territory? Me neither.

    But, a civilian aircraft - refueled, repainted, loaded with explosives and passengers - and professionally flown in a manner not likely to elicit a military response could be a very different thing. The very worst thing would be that plane being a stealth nuke. Trinity occurred July 16, 1945, the first atomic device was used August 6, 1945. And, folks in the know have been marking time for Iran creating weapons. Stealth need not be something invisible to radar, it could be something unimaginable being spotted on radar and not intercepted.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  12.  
  13. #895
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Folks, two things...

    Read 'The Fourth Turning' and always read 'The Belmont Club'...

    Today they sing together in perfect harmony!!!

    Uh oh...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #896
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Folks, two things...

    Read 'The Fourth Turning' and always read 'The Belmont Club'...

    Today they sing together in perfect harmony!!!

    Uh oh...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #897
    99percent's Avatar
    99percent is offline TSP Talker Reputation: 321
    Likes received: 137
    Likes given: 232
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    268

    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Like I don't have enough to worry about? Have a Coke and a smile!
    "Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends...

  18.  
  19. #898
    alevin's Avatar
    alevin is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 3625
    Likes received: 227
    Likes given: 311
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    2,737

    Default Re: Black Swan...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Folks, two things...

    Read 'The Fourth Turning' and always read 'The Belmont Club'...

    Today they sing together in perfect harmony!!!

    Uh oh...

    Read 4th turning probably 10 years ago, remembered it's projections to this day, have been seeing it coming for years now.

  20.  
  21. #899
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Smile Knocking Some of the Variance Off...

    Well,

    I allowed some (all :~{) of this years gains to wash away. But, it was only 2 and a half points anyway...

    Regardless, today's flat market gives me a chance to remove some variance from my allocation. Going to a standard conservative allocation:

    G: 12%
    F: 27%
    C: 37%
    S: 13%
    I: 11%

    Average Annual Return: 5%
    Variance/Risk: 7%

    This move lops a point off of return and two points off of risk. It also places me into one of Ric Edelman's portfolio allocations. Science
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #900
    Boghie's Avatar
    Boghie is offline Planet TSP Reputation: 4865
    Likes received: 531
    Likes given: 116
    AutoTracker

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    San Diego, CA
    Posts
    2,615

    Exclamation "No Mas!!!"

    Re(1): 'The Outlines of the Monster', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

    The ulcers of the Obama years are now festering. The menaces, once so vague, are taking on a definite shape. America may potentially face severe security challenges in Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Poland, Baltics), Southwest Asia (Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan), the Middle East (Syria, Yemen, Iraq), North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Sub-sahara) and East Asia (South China Sea, North Korea, Taiwan and Japan). All of these hotspots are simmering, though none as yet have blown up into an severe international crisis.

    But in each of these theaters the design margin is ebbing away. The potential for danger in each of them is growing and in time they will flow into each other. For American resources that must rush to meet one of them cannot also meet the other. Once the trouble starts in one place, the bad actors in other places will seize their chance for mischief.

    Nor do we see a president tirelessly organizing the bulwarks of democracy at every threatened point, unless he is doing so from the golf course or at fund raisers. It is in this context that Obama’s rambling “defense policy” speech at West Point should be understood.

    It was his “no mas” speech, to quote Roberto Duran.
    The 'end of history' is so 1990s!!!
    Birchtree, Frixxxx and jpcavin like this.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


  24.  
Page 75 of 78 FirstFirst ... 25657374757677 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P 500 (C fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Dow Completion (S fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m 
EFA (I fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Bonds (F fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y