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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #817

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Re(1): 'Where Have You Gone, Admiral Ackbar?', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

    Always read Richard Fernandez, 'The Belmont Club'.

    Speaking for myself, I am not so sure defeat [in Syria] is in the offing. The tactical power of the United States military is so great that it can give mediocre, even insanely incompetent commanders in chief mastery of the physical field. It can avoid defeat, but it can’t give victory to somebody who doesn’t want it either.

    ..

    But as Obama’s mistakes pile up he will be forced to retreat with or without the GOP on his heels, much as the Old Guard did at Waterloo, first a step at a time, then at a halting trot, then finally at a full-fledged, pell-mell run, chased by forces he himself has unleashed. So too will the headlong confusion ensue
    Choppy writing for Fernandez - bet WELL worth the read...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #818

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    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Black Swans are aflight...

    And, September/October are not the best months to be fully invested...

    • G: 60% - Look at that awesome return
    • F: 0% - Look at that awesome return
    • C: 20%
    • S: 10%
    • I: 10%

    I have no idea what my risk/reward is. Flying by the seat of my pants.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #819

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    Smile Movin' to Europe...

    Black Swans are aflight, but mostly in the Gubmint sector of 'Merica. Europe and Japan should be good to go...

    • G: 45% - Took 15% out of the collateral the Treasury is using to 'fund' the gubmint
    • F: 0% - Look at that awesome return
    • C: 23%
    • S: 12%
    • I: 20% - Movin' away from the USA!!!

    I have no idea what my risk/reward is. Flying by the seat of my pants.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


  6.  
  7. #820

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    Default Re: Movin' to Europe...

    Invest in Europe/Japan...

    A scorching assessment of the president as foreign-policy actor came from a former senior U.S. diplomat, a low-key and sophisticated man who spent the week at many U.N.-related functions. "World leaders are very negative about Obama," he said. They are "disappointed, feeling he's not really in charge. . . . The Western Europeans don't pay that much attention to him anymore."
    The Libs have blown the cash flow. Here comes the pain...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #821

    Default Re: Movin' to Europe...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    I have no idea what my risk/reward is. Flying by the seat of my pants.
    That's scarey, Boghie. I thought you were all about measuring risk.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  10.  
  11. #822

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    Default Re: Movin' to Europe...

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    That's scarey, Boghie. I thought you were all about measuring risk.
    Cactus,

    I do like risk measurement. I was just at work and knew I wanted to buy a bit more Europe/Japan and lose a bit of the risk of the Treasury slow rolling my access to my 'G Fund' assets. Not that I think that will happen, but the risk of the Treasury locking 'G Fund' assets in place is higher now than at any period I know. Normally, the 'extraordinary measures' are taken at the beginning of the Debt Ceiling argument - not at the end. That kinda means that the process is no longer 'extraordinary', eh...

    I knew that a small 15% move split among three asset classes would not dramatically destabilize my overly conservative allocation.

    In the end, the prior allocation was:
    • Expected Return: 2%
    • Expected Risk: 4%


    While my new allocation is:
    • Expected Return: 4%
    • Expected Risk: 6%

    And, if the gubmint goes Full Retard (which I expect) and do not set a budget anyone will sign (as has happened since the Republicans lost control of the House/Senate), do not cut spending, and stop passing the bill from Lib Spending to the FED than assets in Federal gubmint debt are riskier than normal.

    The 'I Fund' should not be affected by this stupidity. In fact, there might be a flight to safety.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  12.  
  13. #823

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    Exclamation Sad, very sad - It took so long to build

    Re(1): 'The Tom Clancy Thread', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

    Always read The Belmont Club...

    And if Greenpeace winds up in the hoosegow the proximate reason will have been the diminution of America’s prestige at the hands of Obama. Time was, not so long ago, Russia would have been afraid to do that. Not any more.

    ...

    Ironically the courage of Greenpeace is subsidized by the valor of those they detest. For the stage pirates can only go through their steps while the real pirates are at bay; and their right to prattle about fascism is only possible while the real fascists are kept at arm’s length by those they will never thank, whose existence they will never acknowledge.
    There is much to remind me of President Carter in President Obama.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #824

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    Default Re: Sad, very sad - It took so long to build

    Well...

    The Federal Gubmint has already spent every dime of our 'G Fund' and Pension assets. The Treasury is clamoring that they will go broke within the month and be unable to pay interest on the debt and Social Security. Taken together, those two expenses will amount to $98 Billion. Revenue for October 2013 should be around $206 Billion - and along with a September surplus of about $120 Billion we should be in fine shape.

    But, to be fair, since September is a quarterly tax month let us use $30 Billion of the surplus for October. Thus, we can count on about $236 Billion in spendable cash for October.

    After paying off our debt interest and Social Security obligations we have $138 Billion to spend on the rest of government. That should be doable. It's a cut of about $50 Billion off expected spending...

    So, what is the problem behind this stream of thought. Here it is in a nutshell. The Treasury 'has' to pay us back for the spending they have already expensed from our retirement fund. If they cannot borrow from the FED (75% of our debt is bought by the FED now) to cover the money they borrowed from our retirement funds than a few things happen. The one I am most concerned about is a freeze on IFTs. Thus, even though it is risky, I am thinking of moving another 10% - 20% out of my 'G Fund' and into C/S/I where they cannot make a grab. They will always allow us back into the 'G Fund', but once in we might be residing in the Roach Motel.

    Therefore, tomorrow I think I will IFT to:
    G: 30% - Stuff in here could be locked. Not likely, but a risk
    F: 0% - lots of gubmint debt, but not likely to be frozen
    C: 30% - American Private Sector is growing
    S: 15% - American Private Sector is growing
    I: 25% - Seem to have less correlation with American Gubmint spending

    Expected Annual Return (after inflation): 5%
    Expected Risk: 7%

    Thus, an expected annual return of between -2% through +12%
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #825

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Sad, very sad - It took so long to build

    Somtimes I think you are too smart for your own good, do you honestly think they would freeze us in the G-fund?
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  18.  
  19. #826

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    Default Re: Sad, very sad - It took so long to build

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Somtimes I think you are too smart for your own good, do you honestly think they would freeze us in the G-fund?
    I know what you mean. Especially when I let politicians define my actions...

    The way I'm thinking about it is that I am too young to have 45% of my assets in the 'G Fund' boat anchor anyway. I've missed a lot of growth this year by watching the goobers out east. And, I want to have a 0% chance of those LOPs (Low Output People) locking 45% of my assets in a dead fund. Yowser.

    Without this mess I would have probably moved between 5% and 10% out this month.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  20.  
  21. #827

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Sad, very sad - It took so long to build

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Somtimes I think you are too smart for your own good, do you honestly think they would freeze us in the G-fund?
    I know what you mean. Especially when I let politicians define my actions...

    The way I'm thinking about it is that I am too young to have 45% of my assets in the 'G Fund' boat anchor anyway. I've missed a lot of growth this year by watching the goobers out east. And, I want to have a 0% chance of those LOPs (Low Output People) locking 45% of my assets in a dead fund. Yowser.

    Without this mess I would have probably moved between 5% and 10% out this month.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #828

    Default Re: Sad, very sad - It took so long to build

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Somtimes I think you are too smart for your own good, do you honestly think they would freeze us in the G-fund?
    I've often wondered about that. Do they even have to freeze it? Can't they just grab the whole pot and just pay us as if we were in the chosen funds. It's all bits in a computer after all. What's to stop them from grabbing it all now and promising to pay it all back with the same worthless IOU's everyone else gets?
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%


  24.  
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