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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #805
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    Default Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column

    Detroit runined themselves by their property taxes trying to keep trash dump schools open. People who were middle class got tired of busing their kids to these schools - they just picked up and moved somewhere else. Economics will bring back reality - cut back on all the welfare. I'm actually pleased to see reality setting in.
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  3. #806
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    Unhappy Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column

    I have just zeroed out the affect of the Sequester...
    1. Increase withholdings to 4
    2. Stop both my allotments (car and Schwab)


    Upon the new Fiscal Year - and the end of this cr@ppy Sequester - I will:
    1. Zero out my withholdings and pay an additional amount per pay period to compensate for the Sequester period
    2. Not reestablish my allotments till my tax burden is paid off


    This only works because my car payment allotment is no longer necessary (my car account has enough to pay it off right now) and my Schwab allotment is not mandatory for any reason. The ability to make changes such as these will end soon. And, remember, the IRS and - in my case - the California Franchise Tax Board are not friendly people. In my case they want their 33%. For that I get lousy roads, lousy schools, high sales taxes, internet sales taxes, constant State deficits, and ridiculous Federal deficits even in periods of record Federal revenue. Oh well...
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    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  5. #807
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    Default Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column

    Re(1): 'Excellent Time Photo Essay of Revolutionary War Portraits', Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead
    Re(2): 'Faces of the American Revolution', Time Magazine, Elizabeth D. Herman

    An amazing photo essay. Any of you want to see actual 'photos' of actual Revolutionary War Veterans? Yup, thought so...

    By the way, the Revolutionary War was America's first '4th Turning'. 80 years later we survived America's second '4th Turning' - the Civil War. 80 years after the second '4th Turning' we survived America's third '4th Turning' - the Second World War. 80 years after the beginning of the third '4th Turning' (a turning is one generation - or about 20 years) would be 2009. We are either in the middle of a '4th Turning' - based on the epoch setting 9/11 attacks - or at the beginning of one - based on the epoch setting financial crash. My guess is we are in the middle. And the twenty years or so comprising a '4th Turning' are times of war, financial collapse, and complete social change. We seem to be living in interesting times!!!
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    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  7. #808
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    Default Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Re(1): 'Excellent Time Photo Essay of Revolutionary War Portraits', Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead
    Re(2): 'Faces of the American Revolution', Time Magazine, Elizabeth D. Herman

    An amazing photo essay. Any of you want to see actual 'photos' of actual Revolutionary War Veterans? Yup, thought so...

    By the way, the Revolutionary War was America's first '4th Turning'. 80 years later we survived America's second '4th Turning' - the Civil War. 80 years after the second '4th Turning' we survived America's third '4th Turning' - the Second World War. 80 years after the beginning of the third '4th Turning' (a turning is one generation - or about 20 years) would be 2009. We are either in the middle of a '4th Turning' - based on the epoch setting 9/11 attacks - or at the beginning of one - based on the epoch setting financial crash. My guess is we are in the middle. And the twenty years or so comprising a '4th Turning' are times of war, financial collapse, and complete social change. We seem to be living in interesting times!!!
    Been tracking development of 4th Turning since sometime in early 00's, when I first read the book. I still don't know if 9/11 was the start or if the Great Recession was the start, personally. but yes, only halfway through at best-agreed. It gets worse from here and its already very bad, based on family member situations and outlooks for probable future furloughs (at best).

    Thanks for the photo journalism. wonderful. Have an ancestor-participant from that era, not an official DAR but could be. What matters more at this point is not what the ancestor helped make happen, but what we do today with the conditions we're living through now. Still-the ones from that era serve as signposts for the changes in our society since then.
    I am one of the 98%.

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    Default Re: From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column

    Alvin, glad you liked the photo essay. I thought it was awesome we could actually see a life image of Revolutionary War soldiers. Awesome...

    On the 4th Turning, I don't know if it gets worse. Maybe a full scale war where we go against a 1st World enemy. Maybe a shadowy terror conflict incorporating more dangerous weapons. Maybe an American civil war. Who knows, but it will not come out of the blue. We will see it because it will fly too slow to be a Black Swan.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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    Red face Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    How to take advantage of 2.125% 'G Fund' returns when there is no risk???
    1. I don't know what I am doing, so if I sound smart it is because I am about ready to catastrophically fail.
    2. Does one take advantage of a great cash return by investing in cash...
    3. Or, by using it to hedge high return/high risk plays...

    I go with the latter because that is how I play, homey

    So,
    G Fund: 22% We have gone from 1.25% to 2.125%+ in a month.
    F Fund: 0% Dummies to jog on, Doggies to dog on...
    C Fund: 42% Holding pretty steady in my allocation
    S Fund: 18% Gimme some Alpha baby
    I Fund: 18% Probably the mistake in this allocation, but who knows...
    Average Return: 6% - Gained a point from my original allocation.
    Average Risk: 8% - Stayed the same!!!

    Now, I hope Quicken does all the Covariance and Fat Tail analysis stuff in its risk analysis. It is more than cloudy on that topic. Especially with respect to Fat Tail stuff. I am reading Peter Bernstein's 'Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk' which is recommended by lots of folks I respect. I recommend it. It is a rather basic overview of risk. I have just cleared the Markowitz, von Neumann and Morgenstern chapters covering game theory and efficient portfolios. However, I don't think a circa 1998 book will really discuss Fat Tail investing. I shall see.

    But back to the discussion...

    The nicest thing I know - to separate it from the things I know I don't know and the things I don't know I don't know - is that Quicken uses the following for Cash holdings in an allocation:
    Average Return: 0.1%
    Average Risk: 0.9%
    Well, with the 'G Fund' we have:
    Average Return: 2.125%
    Average Risk: 0.9% - My guess is that this variance comes from very low risk Treasuries, not cash. Ours should be 0% - but we do have politicians!!!

    So, why not use 'cash' as a 0 risk bond - especially when bonds are still reverting to the mean. And, we have to go out to 30 years to get the return of the G Fund...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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  13. #811
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    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Howdy Folks,

    Gotta question: Does anybody know of a site (source) where I can grab the highest and lowest Daily Returns of the S&P500? I could deal with attaining all the Daily Returns (by percentage) and scrubbing the data myself. Whenever I Google I seem to get the Top and Bottom 10. Wikipedia shows the Top and Bottom 20. But, two Standard Deviations is the Top and Bottom 38 - and I am more interested in the turns so I probably need a bit wider range.

    What I did notice based on a few minutes of intense scrutiny of the Top/Bottom 20 in Wikipedia is that most of the big gain days fall within a week of big down days. Lots of time the next day. However, those October, November, and December 2008 big up days were head fakes that got washed out by crashing days soon after. That is why I want more data.

    Personally, I don't believe in a full market timing strategy (I am way too dumb) - but I do seem to be able to track on the large deviations. I would like to see if the data can be managed at the outliers...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  15. #812
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    Question Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Market moving nowhere.
    Might be at an inflection point.
    Going to go up!!! I don't know.
    Going to go down!!! I don't know.

    But, since my crystal ball is always cloudy I will play it both ways.

    G: 42%
    F: 0%
    C: 36%
    S: 10%
    I: 12%

    Expected Return: 4%
    Expected Risk: 6%
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #813
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    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Kinda looking like lots of Black Swans are taking flight...
    However, they - or, most - of them are likely to be pigeons...

    Currently, I am only 58% in equities and 42% in that super safe 'G Fund'. Thinking about reversing that - but I really don't want to waste an IFT on a bunch of birds taking flight...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  19. #814
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    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Boghie,

    I have enjoyed your market perspective and your thread came highly recommended as a must read... I wasn't disappointed.

    Good luck with your investments!!

    -RMI
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  21. #815
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    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Pensions are Craptastic!!!!

    In city after city we’ve seen how mismanagement and underfunding of pension funds have led to financial ruin. Yet despite the cautionary tales presented by cities like Detroit and Stockton, cities still persist in kicking the can down the road, hoping that good times will return and strong investments will keep funds afloat. Until such a happy day dawns, they’re plagued by credit downgrades and massive debts, and face an ugly choice: either renege on their pension promises or slash public services to the bone in order to fulfill them. Any New Yorker counting on these pensions should begin to think seriously about a backup plan for retirement.
    Watch as the citizens of New York State rise up and support the pensioners!!!
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    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #816
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    Default Re: Cashy Account Behaving Bondy with No Risk

    Even more craptastic...

    Always read Fernandez:
    The Left, in elevating Barack Obama, have manacled themselves to an accident waiting to happen. And now every new day begins with near miss; every fresh crisis starts with the expectation: will this be the one?
    It might be fun to watch this Black Swan take flight. But, unlike Mr. Fernandez, I live in 'merica...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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