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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #793
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Ouch -- think this might start our long awaited for correction?
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  3. #794
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Ouch -- think this might start our long awaited for correction?
    Maybe...

    It will blow over if the Israelis are just bombing Hezbollah. I mean, who cares if Hezbollah freedom fighters get wiped out. Better for the civilized world. Maybe some yelling and screaming - and some behind-the-scenes backslapping. I don't think violence in Syria will move the market. There is violence in Syria.

    If, however, Israel takes an eastern airfield all bets are off. They can handle Iran from there and thanks to our Black Swan President we can honestly portray America as impotent. I mean, we no longer have any air assets (planes or anti-aircraft batteries) in the region. Because we bailed from Iraq, Israel could take an airfield in eastern Syria and launch sorties right over the northern region of Iraq and right to the nuclear sites in Iran. There might be another Nobel Peace Prize for President Obama in the near future. But, that would freak the market.

    Hey, look at that one in the top, right corner...
    SyrianAirfields.JPG
    Nice, very nice... And, that border in the top, right is the Turkey/Iraq border... About 100 km to the east is Iran... And, now we don't have to have Turkey and Iraq playing stupid games. Just overfly defenseless Iraq. Nice plan Bama

    A Black Swan could have taken flight...
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    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  5. #795
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    JTH
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    I don't like it, but I do like it, "Like button engaged"
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  7. #796
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Extraordinary, or just ordinary

    Too bad our safe investment option is limited to a fund where the Treasury monetizes borrowed money. And, when it is done every year - and on a known schedule - is it really extraordinary.

    Beware. The safest place to be just might be anywhere the bad debtor with champagne tastes isn't. This whole issue reminds me of a family dealing with a boozer. Family members get frustrated and take all the bottles they can find and throw them away. The boozer is contrite for a while but fights for his or her rights to booze. But, low and behold, the sly fox hid one in the toilet tank. There's always one in the toilet tank. The 'G Fund' is our Bacardi in the tank.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  9. #797
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    Smile Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Apple

    Can anyone see the pattern not mentioned: Arizona, Texas, Illinois, Florida and Kentucky

    Hint 1: Illinois is the odd ball.
    Hint 2: Average is about 29
    Hint 3: Average without the Dead Cat is about 35

    Kalefornea's Gubnor Moonbeam assumed a state GDP increase of 4% for his budget. Now, he must assume 2%. Regretfully, Gubnor Moonbeam also opines:

    He also said much of the income tax revenue increase the state enjoyed this spring will not be lasting, attributing the rush instead to wealthy taxpayers shifting income from 2013 into 2012 to avoid higher federal tax rates. Administration officials said they also expect tax revenue in the final two months of the budget year, May and June, to fall below original estimates.

    Read more here: Gov. Jerry Brown takes cautious approach on California budget - State Budget - The Sacramento Bee

    My guess is that said wealthy plutocrats are also shifting income to Arizona, Texas, Florida and Kentucky. Just a guess. That will, unexpectantly, reduce his rosy scenario a bit more. What a tragedy. All those needy graspers will have nothing to grasp from. Tragedy...
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  11. #798
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  13. #799
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    The 'G Fund' is our Bacardi in the tank.
    Why you picking on my rum of choice?

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  15. #800
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    Why you picking on my rum of choice?
    Good one. But, any booze will be someones fave!!!

    A little 'Comfort' goes a long way...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #801
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    Default Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Jinxing self...

    Another day or so like today and my annual goal is met. Then I could slumber through summer.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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  19. #802
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    Lightbulb Re: Bubbles, bubbles, toil and Troubles...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Jinxing self...

    Another day or so like today and my annual goal is met. Then I could slumber through summer.
    Uh, yup...

    I should spend far more time in silence than with my fly catcher open
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #803
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    Lightbulb Adding Some Risk/Variance to Allocation

    My three allocation models are:

    Aggressive: 2% G, 15% F, 48% C, 19% S, 16% I Expected Return: 6%, Expected Variance: 9%
    Normal: 12% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 8%
    Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%

    The market is in short term flux, but seems to be centering - not falling.

    My current allocation is more conservative than my 'Conservative' allocation, but not by much:

    42% G, 0% F, 36% C, 10% S, 12% I Expected Return: 4%, Expected Variance: 6%

    Basically, I believe the 'F Fund' is in a bubble where either the FED or our esteemed politicians can pick at it. Therefore, I had merged the F and G together while simultaneously hiding a tiny bit of the US equities in cash.

    I am going to increase my variance a little bit and overweight the International Big Wig Boyz a bit. My new allocation is:

    Normalish: 32% G, 0% F, 40% C, 12% S, 16% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%

    Like I said, don't like the bubbly F, like the C, the S seems overextended, and the I oversold. Thus, the dump of the F, the bump of C, the small sell of S, and the more substantial bump of I. All that 'G Fund' holdings gives me nothing but purchasing power. It holds back the variance and the potential return. But, it is summer after all!!!

    Happy hunting...
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  23. #804
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    Default From the 'It Can't Happen to Us' column

    Re(1): 'Detroit Rescue Plan to Gut City Pensions', Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead

    Public employees take heed: politicians and union leaders can and will promise you the moon, but they cannot and will not always keep their word.

    The Blue Train is off the tracks in Detroit. Careening our way soon!!!
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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