Thread: Boghies Account Talk

Originally Posted by Boghie

Re(1): 'The Siege of Merimna', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

The people living in 2013′s real world have yet to pen the finish to their own exciting tale.

This post by Fernandez will make it to my personal blog's "My Favorite Posts' lists. The last entry - 'Ping', also by Fernandez - was noted in 2011. Always read 'The Belmont Club'.

'The Siege...' Impressive read. What do we do? Well. Just like in that old WWII movie where the Sargent and the private are dug in, rifles poised for any enemy aggression. The private says to the sarge, "What'll we do sarge, what'll we do?". The Sargent says back through gritted teeth, "We wait.". Till then, I'm going "all in" come February. Like they say. When fear grips, buy, buy, buy.

What do we think this means

Winter is coming...

Subscribers only Boghie.


Anyhoo, I'm ashamed to say I live here !!! It's time to pay the Piper. Who else can claim two successive Governors are in prison??? At the same time!!???

Originally Posted by JimmyJoe

'The Siege...' Impressive read. What do we do? Well. Just like in that old WWII movie where the Sargent and the private are dug in, rifles poised for any enemy aggression. The private says to the sarge, "What'll we do sarge, what'll we do?". The Sargent says back through gritted teeth, "We wait.". Till then, I'm going "all in" come February. Like they say. When fear grips, buy, buy, buy.

Good luck

This sounds familiar

In the past four years the treasury has sold the agency over $10 billion of bonds at paltry interest rates. The president has used the proceeds to fund popular projects, such as low-income housing, infrastructure and transfers to poor families with children.

Who else has raided their government managed pension funds to fund popular projects.

Originally Posted by Boghie

This sounds familiar



Who else has raided their government managed pension funds to fund popular projects.

Everyone since August 14th, 1935...

Your Pension, Our Pension...

Unfunded is not funded...

Actually, this is not totally fair. The problem is that Federal Gubmint pensions are not allocated amongst many asset classes. They are invested in Social Security bonds. Maybe Treasuries. Anyone around here like all their eggs in a single Federal bond basket managed by 435 politicians? Bueller, Bueller??? Thus, CSRS is invested - but it is invested in one entity and one asset class. Oh well...

Ditto with the FERS pension... Yuk and double yuk.

And, even more yukky, there are Republican Goobers who want me to pay more into the Alpo Meal Deal Pension Plan. Now, to be honest, I like the safety of my Alpo Plan. It means that I don't have to invest in the 'G Fund'. I already got lots in the 'G Fund' with my FERS Pension and Social Security, eh... But, why would I force some 25 year old chump to invest in the 'G Fund'? Why do I want to force myself to buy 'G Fund' assets? Even though I am not 25 years old I do not want more of my assets going into the 'G Fund' unless I elect to buy into the 'G Fund'. So, Republican Goobers, give me this option (since you are so economic freedom loving):

1. Pour 25% of the current assets (or some percentage) of my FERS Pension into my TSP account.
2. Increase my match to 7%
3. Get out of the way
4. Bye, bye

I think this fair. You take 100% of all FERS Pension liability away from me for the cost of 25% of the paper assets you claim to hold. I think any corporation going broke because of an unfunded pension would take that offer in a second. Actually fast enough for the fastest computerized trading system to move an electron. And, folks, that is pretty fast. Gimme the Flash Pension Crash for Boghie Deal. The extra 2% in match is a significant reduction in ongoing expenditure (about a 87% reduction in current benefits paid). But, my plan gives me the right to invest those assets in something other than Gubmint stuff. And, it gets me away from the ignorant louts we routinely elect who spend our assets. I think that a win win, eh...

Seems Toppy, but who knows...
Moving to a normal, moderate allocation

G: 12%
F: 22%
C: 39%
S: 15%
I: 12%

Expected Return: 5%
Expected Risk: 8%

Took some risk off the table, but kept enough in equities to gain a bit if March is better than I think it will be...

Sit down when I tell you this - our bud just took a bite of 25S. Now that is certainly progress. Now we'll see how long he can hold it.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Sit down when I tell you this - our bud just took a bite of 25S. Now that is certainly progress. Now we'll see how long he can hold it.

I was worried that we were hitting a market top. Get your sticky pants on!!!!

Gotta spend some time thinking...
Just thinking...

My three normal allocations all have some element of the 'F Fund'. Especially the Moderate and Conservative allocations. Right now I am sitting squarely in the Normal (Moderate) allocation.

But, here is the problem:

1. The assets in the 'F Fund' bubbled and seem to be correcting - albeit at a slow rate. I really don't want my 'safe' and 'stable' assets to be sitting near the top of a bubble. And, with both the market and vast parts of the economy (sorry Kalefornea, you get to watch this one) improving and normalizing I would have to assume that the FED will initiate a slow draw down of the bond buying. We might not even be informed. Who really knows if they are buying $85 Billion a month in our boat anchor Treasuries or $80 Billion. Even the Sequester may play a role. The FED will not have to pony up vapor-cash to cover the borrowing cut by the Sequester.
2. All of the Equities funds have been raging lately. They are ready for a normal swoon - a basing correction. Do I want to move some of the 'F Fund' 'safe' money to a short term bubbly 'C Fund'. Yowser.
3. Finally, who wants to squat in the 'G Fund'. Those returns get wiped out with a one day move by equities. That is not very safe. You cannot build any kind of buffer sitting in the 'G Fund' in a temporary fashion. It is really just a cash holding bin awaiting better opportunity.

Just thinking.

Kinda leaning toward a higher alpha risk play - ie. a little overbalance in the S Fund. If I'm going to be at risk I may as well give myself an opportunity for return.