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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #733

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    Mar 2006
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    Cool Re: Am I going Amoeba, or JP Morgan

    The potential future of Social Security

    Might I remind us all that you cannot trust future politicians to honor commitments of past politicians. The corollary is that one should not trust current politicians promising future benefits. Take your pick
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #734

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    Mar 2006
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    Cool A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Couple of things...

    20% holdings in Cash ('G Fund') burning a hole in my pocket and cushioning the wild spending spree of the Federal Government.
    20% holdings in bonds ('F Fund') look very frothy, but science tells me to keep close to that allocation.

    And, I have got to stop allowing aged lawyers to influence my allocation. So, let us move to a more normal allocation:
    G: 0%
    F: 20% - Over-allocated to provide cushioning
    C: 45% - Over-allocated to provide cushioning
    S: 18% - A little under-allocated to provide a bit to 'C'
    I: 17% - A little over-allocated because their debt issues blow up at a different time than ours

    Expected Annual Return: 6%
    Expected Risk: 9%
    Basically, this sits closest to my normal allocation of 12/22/39/15/12, but twisting away from Assets Collateralized by the Feds (G) and frothy Treasuries (F) and toward equities. The average annual return and risk is identical to my Aggressive allocation, but I expect to restructure again in January. Thus, I am setting up for a 'free' IFT
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #735

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    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Those of us (not me!!!) who are Big Gubmint Lefties might be interest in this...

    The December Monthly Treasury Statement was in balance. The previous two months were way out of balance, and thus had absolutely huge deficits. Is this a case of moving expenses forward, of dramatically increased revenue (+12% YOY), of dramatically decreased spending (-20%), or a blip in a nasty trend.

    It might simply be the gubmint trying to tighten its belt so that it can extend the party on your 'G Fund Credit Card'. That would kinda prove that the 'mandated' $100 Billion dollar (annual, $16 Billion per month starting now) sequester cut will barely be felt through all the fat.

    Hope nobody is reading this... Some Tea Party folks might start marching around TSPTalk!!!
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  6.  
  7. #736

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    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Hope nobody is reading this... Some Tea Party folks might start marching around TSPTalk!!!
    Too late we're already here! underdog.jpg



  8.  
  9. #737

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    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Re(1): 'History Suggests the Era of Entitlements is Nearly Over, Washington Examiner', Michael Barone
    Re(2): 'The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny', Howe and Strauss

    I have discussed the concept of a '4th Turning' elsewhere and stated my belief that we are currently in a 4th Turning. Michael Barone describes where we are at perfectly.

    I would strongly recommend reading Barones piece, then reading Howe and Strauss.

    Plan for:
    Public sector debt collapse
    Public sector shrinkage
    Entitlement shrinkage
    Instability

    And, since we elected to keep the music flowing expect a huge amount of tax evasion as we choose to not pay for what we asked for. It will start with tax planning like I am doing right now. It will end in going off grid like the Greeks and Spaniards. Hopefully, the process is just beginning and we have years to go. But, my guess is we are in the end game - maybe two to four years. And, does anyone think the GenXers will not crack the eggs necessary to make the omelette. Just asking.

    The Positives:
    Private sector recovery and independence
    Individual freedom and responsibility
    Huge productivity gains

    The Negatives:
    Dramatic scale back of 'safety net'
    Large cuts in salary and pay
    Reduced pensions

    'W' was right. We had to start resolving some of the 'Blue Model' faults earlier rather than later. Had we done so, the repairs would have been tolerable. Now it is too late. Much will be torn down to the foundations. I think we are in process now. And, it will accelerate.

    Enjoy
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #738

    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Plan for:
    Public sector debt collapse
    Public sector shrinkage
    Entitlement shrinkage
    Instability

    ...does anyone think the GenXers will not crack the eggs necessary to make the omelette.
    but what am i supposed to do now if i'm already prepared for those things?

    y'all want hashbrowns with that?
    100g


  12.  
  13. #739

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    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Quote Originally Posted by burrocrat View Post
    but what am i supposed to do now if i'm already prepared for those things?

    y'all want hashbrowns with that?
    Just kinda warning those who think the Nanny State will be there for them. I would hate to be on the Gubmint's (any level) Dependent List.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #740

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
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    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Just kinda warning those who think the Nanny State will be there for them. I would hate to be on the Gubmint's (any level) Dependent List.
    Agreed, I happen to be in the camp, for those in their 30s/40s like me, we are in the best investing years of our lives. My only concern is how we the investor tend to let the economic uncertainty of the future paralyze the reality that we should be taking on substantial risk now, to secure our own individual financial future.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  16.  
  17. #741

    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
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    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Re(1): 'History Suggests the Era of Entitlements is Nearly Over, Washington Examiner', Michael Barone
    Re(2): 'The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny', Howe and Strauss

    I have discussed the concept of a '4th Turning' elsewhere and stated my belief that we are currently in a 4th Turning. Michael Barone describes where we are at perfectly.

    I would strongly recommend reading Barones piece, then reading Howe and Strauss.

    Plan for:
    Public sector debt collapse
    Public sector shrinkage
    Entitlement shrinkage
    Instability

    And, since we elected to keep the music flowing expect a huge amount of tax evasion as we choose to not pay for what we asked for. It will start with tax planning like I am doing right now. It will end in going off grid like the Greeks and Spaniards. Hopefully, the process is just beginning and we have years to go. But, my guess is we are in the end game - maybe two to four years. And, does anyone think the GenXers will not crack the eggs necessary to make the omelette. Just asking.

    The Positives:
    Private sector recovery and independence
    Individual freedom and responsibility
    Huge productivity gains

    The Negatives:
    Dramatic scale back of 'safety net'
    Large cuts in salary and pay
    Reduced pensions

    'W' was right. We had to start resolving some of the 'Blue Model' faults earlier rather than later. Had we done so, the repairs would have been tolerable. Now it is too late. Much will be torn down to the foundations. I think we are in process now. And, it will accelerate.

    Enjoy
    Boghie, you are spot on. The endgame is near and it ain't gonna be pretty. Cheers!

  18.  
  19. #742

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Washington
    Posts
    9,583

    Default Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    The "Era of Entitlements" isn't going to be over, they will just be the norm for all Americans, so they will no longer be called entitlements...

    Will read the aforementioned articles later to see

  20.  
  21. #743

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    Mar 2006
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    Red face Re: A ContrarianAmoeba Investment...

    I think we all know what I think of pensions...

    However, I never thought this pension program would be in trouble...

    I think that just takes the cake. But, if the numbers do not add up the numbers do not add up. Math is a very difficult thing for promising politicians to deal with. It is very nice to know that politicians do not control our TSP holdings. Very nice and very comforting. We were never promised a TSP rose garden - we had to plant, fertilize, and water it. But when it prospers it will be as beautiful as the work we put into it.

    And, good God, I have put lots of work into it

    Go away politicians, just go away. I do not want a promise. I want money, that's what I want. These boots are made for walking, and walking is what I'll do. Help me man, I'm starting to hum crazy feminist songs. Steam of thought is messing with a good point.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #744

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    Stinking desert valley of bad air quality, AZ
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    Default Re: Am I going Amoeba, or JP Morgan

    Following your link to this pension plan I find The American Interest quotes Financial Times

    As well as the overall financial burden, the system is controversial because only 17 per cent of personnel actually serve the required 20 years needed to qualify.
    Following that link I find I must sign up and pay money to read the article. Not gonna do it.

    I would like to see some factual data about that statement. What does the number actually include?

    I'd hate to think that 83% of my fellow annuitants got over somehow and didn't have to do 20. I would have thought they would have let me know so I could join them.

    About that rose garden, I have seen stuff over the years claiming that TSP participants would be millionaires after 30 years. How has that worked out for you 30 year people?

    PO

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