Page 55 of 102 FirstFirst ... 545535455565765 ... LastLast
Results 649 to 660 of 1217

Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #649

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Red face Treading Water...

    Floating and flopping in the water...
    Anyone ever seen me swim???
    This is what it looks like...
    Bumpin' along...
    FloatingAndFlopping.JPGSnagged.JPG
    Investors lookin' six months out
    Smart Money baitin' hooks
    Am I doing the snagging
    Or getting snagged

    “Ninety-nine for the one” and “one for the ninety-nine” characterizes our global economy and its financial markets in 2012, with the obvious understanding that it is better to be a whale than a plankton. Not only do Wall Street and Newport Beach whales like myself have blowholes where they can express their omnipotence as they occasionally surface for public comment, but they don’t have to worry as yet about being someone else’s lunch.
    - William H. Gross, PIMCO
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #650

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Wink Folks, The Pens are Warming Up...

    Re(1): 'All In a Day's Work', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
    Re(2): 'Obamanomics Fail: Unemployment Rate Rises', Whitehouse Dossier, Keith Koffler

    Pen (1) writes:
    Something doesn’t work any more. Of course the leftist view is that we although we are at the end of the era what we are witnessing is the end of capitalism. But don’t worry: we are on the verge of a United States of Europe, more Hope and Change and a double down on everything.
    Pen (2) writes:
    Obamanomics Fail

    The White House can spin this any way it likes.

    It can talk about the total number of jobs created over the past half century instead of focusing on this month’s numbers. It can discuss how we are digging out of the worst recession since the Black Death in Europe in 1348. It can say the George W. Bush was discovered under a sofa in the Blue Room still running the economy.
    Still awaiting Pen (3). Certainly Mark Styn is huddled in a corner home office working away. This is going to hurt.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #651

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Folks, The Pens are Warming Up...

    Re(3): 'U.S., Europe on different paths to same place', The Orange County Register, Mark Steyn

    So, Pen (3) writes:

    The Greek fiddlers and the Italian wind players all sit together, playing cards in the dressing room, waiting for the German guy to show up with their checks.
    ...

    That's to say, the unsustainable "bubble" is not student debt or subprime mortgages or anything else. The bubble is us, and the assumptions of entitlement. Too many citizens of advanced Western democracies live a life they have not earned, and are not willing to earn.
    Anyone out there think you are going to retire at 52 on your pension.

    You are counting on future politicians paying for the unfunded promises of past politicians.

    All I can say is, ouch...

    Invest in YOUR lockbox. Plan your retirement around your TSP account, your ROTH IRA, and other accounts controlled by YOU.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  6.  
  7. #652

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Thumbs up Illinois Takes the Lead!!!

    In the race to the bottom of the Blue World Marble,
    Illinois Takes The Lead...

    horse.jpg

    Maybe the state pension accounts are wildly underfunded,
    but horseys can now be service animals.

    By the way, note that the state pension accounts are underfunded by the state. And money is flowing from Illinois so fast its clogging the drain for Greece and Spain and Kalefornea.

    Damn it man, where is my horsey

    I want to take it to work.

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #653

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Lightbulb What is Your Pain Point???

    Re(1): TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up (2012/06/01), Tom
    Re(2): 'Testing the Bulls Resolve', Seven Sentinals for TSP, CoohHand.
    Re(3): 'SPX Targets', Uptrend, Uptrend

    Tom, in his Weekly Wrap Up of 2012/06/01, discusses odds and risk factors in a market like ours. Basically, the odds point to a rebound from being oversold while the risk of a catastrophic failure (a Fat Tail Black Swan) is somewhat elevated - but not likely.

    Basically, where is your pain point? And, why ask that question?

    Well, as Tom states, the normal action of the market after blowing through the 200 DMA is to bounce and recover. If you ate your losses during the correction (sold low) and missed the early bounce than what will your return be.

    Conversely, what happens if you stay fully invested awaiting the corrective bounce and it doesn't come?

    And, finally, what your your personal trading patterns? I have studied mine. It looks like it takes me two or three weeks to get back into a market while I seem to be lucky enough to be 60%+ out of the market before a crash. Where am I now? 60% out of the market... I also see that I am slow to get into a uptrending market and quick on the out. The exception was last year where I rode the thing to the bottom and back. Finally, I do better when I trade less frequently. Those are my patterns. About four weeks to fully recognize growth, about a week to recognize a decline (except the lousy four week delay last year - yuk).

    So, given my patterns, here are a SWAG of gains/losses:
    • If at bottom, GAIN: 40% of gain from 2008/03/09 through 2009/05/04 (36%): 14.4% gain YtoD
    • If before crash, LOSS: 40% of loss from 2008/09/29 through 2008/10/10 (-23%): -9.2% loss YtoD

    If you are all out, your returns (based on ugly 2008 and beautiful 2009) would be:
    • If at bottom, GAIN: 0% of rebound gain with a potential for 60% future gains if one jumps in
    • If before crash, LOSS: 0% of loss of the potential 23% loss with another 31% of losses on the table.

    If you are all in, your returns (based on ugly 2008 and beautiful 2009) would be:
    • If at bottom, GAIN: 36% gain with another 60% future gains
    • If before crash, LOSS: 23% in losses with another 31% to loose.

    I don't think we are crashing or booming, but I can live with either of those circumstances under my current allocation. I think I am at my pain point. A crash loss will leave me at -3.63%, a crash recovery will leave me at +19.97. With two IFTs left this month I can further restrict losses or advance a gain. Regardless, I have enough in to have a nice return and enough out to cushion a blow that could have freaked me out.

    By the way, I wish I could understand the technical traders here. Anyone try to read Uptrends commentary today. I can watch CH and Tom though!!! I think I'll sit tight...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  10.  
  11. #654

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: What is Your Pain Point???

    Re(1): 'The Twilight and the Dawn', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
    Re(2): 'Twilight of the West', National Review Online, Mark Steyn

    An absolute must read from the Belmont Club: 'The Twilight and the Dawn'

    This is actually a detailed response to 'Twilight of the West' by Mark Steyn - an article I referenced earlier.

    Basically, Mr. Fernandez points out that every region is failing - but that one region will change to become the safe zone. Kinda like outrunning the bear. He believes the odds favor a North America/England/Australia transformation.

    It is a must read...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  12.  
  13. #655

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Smile The War on Arithmetic...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #656

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Smile Oh, The Humanity!!!

    Oh, the humanity...

    How many folks are 'All Out' today? And, is today the beginning of 'something wonderful' or just a head fake?

    As for me, I don't know. I just know that I don't know. You know, there are things you know, and things you don't know, and things you don't know you don't know. All I can guess is that it doesn't feel like 2007 right now - excepting Europe perhaps. But, it definitely felt kinda downturny...

    So, why be all in or all out. Guessing this and assuming that. Market tops are easy, market bottoms easyish, the mad muddle not so much.

    Catching 40% of this move.

    Yummy


    Note: Just caught that Oh Contraire just bought into the risk play (I Fund).

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  16.  
  17. #657

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

    Many of the street's professionals don't trust this rally - I like that. I'm all in and will ride the rails until I get dumped. If I don't get dumped I'm heading for some nice gains and more gains because I'll be DCAing my oceanic account all the way to Dow 17,000. So we'll see how high is high.


  18.  
  19. #658

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

    Reducing risk in the TSP Account, not messing with the expected return. Both are minimal at this point though.
    • G: 40%
    • F: 30%
    • C: 23%
    • S: 7%
    • I: 0%
    • Expected Annual Return: 3%
    • Expected Annual Risk: 4%

    My 30/30/30/10/0 allocation really hasn't done much. Also, everything seems rather flat. Big up days followed by doldrums and a slow pace drawdown. Kinda feels like market movers are slowly migrating out and awaiting the election. Doesn't mean I will be out till after November, it does mean that I'm more or less out till the market movers determine whether the chap who thinks he isn't the big spender realize that he will not be at the helm - or vise versa.

    I don't know about you but the action in Europe seems to be rather stupid. Do they really think that investors will flood back in because they are printing money. Yowser. Haven't we tried that here?
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  20.  
  21. #659

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,416

    Default A Losing Bet for FED Help...

    Re(1): 'Bet Against QE3', First Trust Monday Morning Outlook, Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein and Strider Elass

    Some of us are waiting for Godiva, but don't count on her...

    My guess is that the Fed doesn't really want to goose anything. It is time for a 'controlled' deflation. There are no full on stimulus bullets left. Our 'Black Swan President' brilliantly 'double tapped' the recession in 2009. Too bad he missed. His stimulus did not generate new infrastructure like that of FDR. Oh, well...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #660

    Default Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Many of the street's professionals don't trust this rally - I like that. I'm all in and will ride the rails until I get dumped. If I don't get dumped I'm heading for some nice gains and more gains because I'll be DCAing my oceanic account all the way to Dow 17,000. So we'll see how high is high.
    I hope the Dow number comes by mid-week next. I can't hold on much longer!

  24.  
Page 55 of 102 FirstFirst ... 545535455565765 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Boghies Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Boghies Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Boghies Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Boghies Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes