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Thread: Boghies Account Talk

  1. #193

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    Unhappy Rolling Over...

    Not Certain,

    But things don't smell so good in the equities market. We are

    Rolling over...

    Will this be a healthy 7% - 15% correction in a raging bull market, or a long lasting dump to equilibrium. Maybe Obamanomics is worth more than a 30% discount from the high point. My guess is that no President can account for a long duration economic flat line with a 30% discount.

    But, then again, we are talking about Carter II
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  2.  
  3. #194

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    Exclamation Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Wow,

    A 12% change in the VIX so far

    Don't know what that means. Just started to follow the VIX after BirchTree mentioned it. Never seen that big of a change.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  4.  
  5. #195

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Wow,

    A 12% change in the VIX so far

    Don't know what that means. Just started to follow the VIX after BirchTree mentioned it. Never seen that big of a change.
    Oiy, try 17% now
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  6.  
  7. #196

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    Question Me Thinks...

    Me thinks,
    .. next week might be a great buying opportunity.


    This is a reaction to another Obama economic policy. In this case, healthcare regulation in the teeth of a recession/depression.

    Folks, we ain't going to see inflation till the next President comes into office - or, until this one realizes that his Congress is filled with economic morons. :toung:

    We will find out just how tough it is to fight deflation with the 'Banking Queen' looking over the shoulder of the Fed to ensure each 'i' is dotted and each 't' is crossed. At least Congressman Frank won't be another Czar!

    I don't think we are diving into a W.
    I hope this is a bull market correction.
    However, it might be setting an economic equilibrium.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #197

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Wow,

    A 12% change in the VIX so far

    Don't know what that means. Just started to follow the VIX after BirchTree mentioned it. Never seen that big of a change.
    ....now at 24% and counting. Wonder what some of the VIX swings got up to late last year and earlier this year? Wasn't keeping track of it on a daily basis then.
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  10.  
  11. #198

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    The high for the VIX last fall was 89. And I was buying my little heart out.


  12.  
  13. #199

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    Exclamation Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Depression is a state of mind.
    It differs from fear, greed, hope, and panic.

    All can be emotions of an economic polity. We have felt them all. Greed in 2007. Fear in early 2008. Panic till March 2009. Fear thereafter.

    What, then, awaits us.
    I pray for hope.

    But other perceptive folks are finding depression.

    Hope
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  14.  
  15. #200

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    Default Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Boghie,

    The ISM on Monday may lead to a shock and awe - wouldn't that shake the pillars of economic gloom and doom. By the way - it's good to have another bullish perspective by someone else on the board that remains consistent. Let me know if you ever want to be knighted to a permabull #2 status.

  16.  
  17. #201

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    Smile Re: Boghies Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Boghie,

    The ISM on Monday may lead to a shock and awe - wouldn't that shake the pillars of economic gloom and doom. By the way - it's good to have another bullish perspective by someone else on the board that remains consistent. Let me know if you ever want to be knighted to a permabull #2 status.
    Birch,

    Don't know if I am a permabull. I don't think anyone knows - or can even guess - what is the point at which this market will act as a standard, boring market. But, I am a bull till the market tells me I'm not. I play at the margins, but most of my holdings have been in equities since April.

    Anyway, consumers have saved more and initiated personal paydowns of debt. This has been going on for a year. Both bode well for personal cash flow. Folks now have a savings cushion and more manageable credit card payments. Also, I have noted an increase in traffic at the businesses I frequent. That resulted in me making some of the major purchases I have been holding off on for quite some time. Why wait till the items are no longer on sale. I even used some credit
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  18.  
  19. #202

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    Angry Going Gault Part II...

    It is that time again...

    Kaleforneea is going to unilaterally increase the withholding from my salary by 10%.

    Los Angeles Times:

    Reporting from Los Angeles and Sacramento - Starting Sunday, cash-strapped California will dig deeper into the pocketbooks of wage earners -- holding back 10% more than it already does in state income taxes just as the biggest shopping season of the year kicks into gear.

    Technically, it's not a tax increase, even though it may feel like one when your next paycheck arrives. As part of a bundle of budget patches adopted in the summer, the state is taking more money now in withholding, even though workers' annual tax bills won't change.

    Think of it as a forced, interest-free loan: You'll be repaid any extra withholding in April.

    Certainly, they will pay me back as soon as I file my tax return...

    Now, that is a deal I can work with

    Certainly, almost certainly...

    And, according to the Left Angeles Times, you should think of the hidden graping hand as a 'fix':

    The extra withholding may seem like a small amount siphoned from each paycheck, but it adds up to a $1.7-billion fix for California's deficit-riddled books.

    From a single taxpayer earning $51,000 a year with no dependents, the state will be grabbing an extra $17.59 each month, according to state tax officials. A married person earning $90,000 with two dependents would receive $24.87 less in monthly pay.

    California will probably continue to collect the tax at a higher rate for many years -- or find an additional $1.7 billion to slice from a future budget, an unlikely occurrence. All workers who have state taxes withheld will see their paychecks shrink.

    Yeah, that's the ticket...

    I, however, have other ideas.

    With less credit card debt and more savings I think I can afford to purchase more equity shares in my TSP account. In my second Ah Ha moment of the year I realize that I can Zero out this grab and make myself a fabulously rich oldster!!! Or, maybe there is a Charity out there looking for some assets.

    Tis the season to give

    My next post will be the math. Amoeba - and the other unlucky Kaleforneeans in TSPLand - may want to jigger their personal finances in similar ways. That is: TSP, HSA/FSA, Charity, better health insurance, a housing upgrade, etc...

    Maybe time to buy a nice house right next to John Gault - in Utah.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  20.  
  21. #203

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    Default Why, I really don't know...

    Migrating back into equities holdings.

    Why...

    I don't know...

    But, it seems as if the fear has subsided. And, we don't have as many folks screaming Depression in a crowded theater this week. And, I have to remember that 90% of this country does not live in the Peoples Republic of Kaleforea where the Gubmint has decided to borrow an additional 10% from the little people.

    Things are stabalizing, the short term panic is receeding.

    G: 25%
    F: 0%
    C: 48%
    S: 15%
    I: 12%

    Sure do like BirchTrees allocation for equities
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  22.  
  23. #204

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    Red face Probably Should Follow UpTrend OUT-THE-DOOR

    Looks like a sugar high...

    How long can the G8 Sugar Daddies goose this thing? And, why?

    Can't they just let us adjust a bit? I mean, for the past few weeks it looked as if we were adjusting to the new reality. A bit down from the highs, a big up from the lows. I am ok with that. Let the market and economy find it's equilibrium. We don't need to be high all the time.

    Soon the FED will act to strengthen the dollar. That time is now sooner rather than later.

    Should have bailed today. Expect the smart money to run...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  24.  
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