Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

My question on the Dollars is still open although Yen is strengthening. Will ECB tighten? Tomorrow Comey and UK Election.. Today's hearing: placid and quiet. If SPX bounces, it heads to 2446. If if doesn't, we're looking at a downside potential for 2381 pivot. Here's an SPX chart.

spx.jpg

FS

Hmm 2381. Now that's a dip I would buy...

As of the close, SPX stays above 2416 which was my "get out of Dodge number". TRANS is up so, who knows. Right now the market is staying bullish.

Was today a head fake? The market always surprises but I wasn't expecting it to take off for pivot 2449 (and close shows a chance of it heading there with a positive DIV). But UP, based on what? Housing sales are down, Oil down, nothing on healthcare, taxes, infrastructure, etc. From my perspective, mixed signals....Trend says BULL, Fundamentals say "CONFUSED".

FS

Markets are volatile today. Futures just went Red. Oil appears to be in a continued decline, Yen is up, Dollar down, Gold down. Comey ready to testify and UK Elections...Here's a chart on oil:

oil.jpg

FS

Attaching article from McClellan. Worth a look. The graphic is mind boggling.

The Unexplainable 4-Year Rerun - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

FS

Here's a snapshot of major indices as we head into Monday..Dollar still in decline, SPX, IND, DJI, NYA are overbought, Gold looks ready to bounce. My guess is the market is ready for a trend change but the markets love to surprise. Need to check TRIN in the am to see where it is.

Screenshot 2017-06-11 21.18.05 (2).jpg

FS

SPX is 2439 as I write this. Don't really expect to see it move beyond 2447 at this time. I think the downside risk is high. For tomorrow we only care about the surprises, as in bigger hike, or no hike at all. I think the probability is that we get the rate hike. The fact that the the dollar and gold are right at break out/down levels, and stalled, tells you it’s going to be a roller coaster.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

SPX is 2439 as I write this. Don't really expect to see it move beyond 2447 at this time. I think the downside risk is high. For tomorrow we only care about the surprises, as in bigger hike, or no hike at all. I think the probability is that we get the rate hike. The fact that the the dollar and gold are right at break out/down levels, and stalled, tells you it’s going to be a roller coaster.

FS

Might be a good day to move some shares around.

Looks like 2418 is the low for the day. SPX seems to be wanting to hold above 2425. I did see that the Yen has decided to strengthen and PM's are heading south. The market is taking it's own sweet time to unwind. There must still be a lot of momentum from previous months. I think we are due a 5% correction. But, the way things appear, I'd be surprised to see a 3% pullback. Amoeba had said aaii is neutral and that is correct. Perhaps big players are just shifting their portfolios right now. Just watching this market do a roller coaster this week.

FS

Some very good people are expecting an ATH in SPX. That said, here'some charts from Kimble that shows where were are.

stock-bond-ytd-performance-comparison-june-15.jpg

stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-june-15.jpg

FS

I am not a huge Elliott wave fan but here is a quote from today's safehaven.com analysis of the dow which supports your take:

Short term Dow Jones Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 4/19 low is unfolding as a diagonal Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 21010 (4/26), Minor wave 2 ended at 20474 (5/18), Minor wave 3 ended at 21270 (6/8), and Minor wave 4 ended at 21081 (6/8). Minor wave 5 is in progress and subdivided into a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6/8 low, Minute wave ((a)) is expected to complete at 21360 – 21404. Index should then pullback in Minute wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 6/8 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback. Buyers should appear once Minute wave ((b)) pullback is over in 3, 7, or 11 swing.