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Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

  1. #853

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    It's been a while since I last posted. What a ride so far. My thanks to Bquat for all his fine chart work and Mr. Ross, Clester, Tsunami, Cactus, DBA, Burro and others for their shared commentary and thoughts. Looking at the S Fund today, it seems to still be lagging the SPX and Nasdaq. Here's a chart of today's action...Please note that we started the day with 3 White Soldiers indicating a possible high and a turnaround..

    Screenshot 2017-02-16 15.45.21 (2).jpg

    Stochastic seems embedded at 92, MACD positive at .26 with upward sloping curve, RSI is slightly overbought at 71.71 but the surprise is that the AROON indicator went positive. Note that this is only a daily shot and market manipulation is possible but it could also be that the market like what the President was saying today. Anyways, best of luck to you in your investing.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  3. #854

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    OK: Here's the way things look....2400 Thursday and 2500 Thursday next week then 10 points pullback...

    Actually, here's the McClellan showing us the gangbusters trend we're in...

    McClellan.jpg

    Here's the SPX today:

    Screenshot 2017-03-01 14.45.24 (2).jpg

    A little bit of a pullback at the end of the day. It ducked a bit under the 18EMA which is why the Aroon Index took a dive to negative territory but other indicators look ok (Sto 42.44, RSI 67.89, and MACD positive). The SPX is showing a slight negative divergence. My guess is that we either topped today or will around 2410. Either way, with a 4 month run exceeding 15% I think, we're due a bit of a pullback soon. Good luck out there.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  5. #855

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Looks like we may see a bit of a pullback. Here are the charts from today for SPX and DWCPF:

    Screenshot 2017-03-06 15.19.50 (2).jpg

    Screenshot 2017-03-06 14.50.12 (2).jpg

    Screenshot 2017-03-06 14.58.45 (2).jpg

    For SPX: MACD's seem to be in decline, Stoch seems to be headed below 50, AROON is showing a weakening in momentum, and the RSI is crossing over to the negative side. But who knows, the SPX chart indicates a potential pivot point at 2368, so if it bounces there we have a new scenario. There are gaps above and below so it's most likely headed to one or the other in short order.

    Here are a few other charts I found today that I thought were interesting.

    SPX-20170306s.png

    Bullandbear.jpg

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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  7. #856

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Looks like we've had a 34 point pullback in SPX as well as a large pullback in DWCPF. I haven't even looked at the data for I or Bonds but they've also been in a downtrend. Here are graphs for SPX and DWCPF:

    Screenshot 2017-03-08 16.01.39 (2).jpg

    Screenshot 2017-03-08 16.03.02 (2).jpg

    Looks like DWCPF is about to hit the 50 day. Will it bounce or breakthrough...SPX needs to either bounce at the 2361 pivot or it probably falls to 2351 resistance. Momentum has been slowing. The Healthcare bill would seem to be a reason for the market to rally but all the negative discussion and lack of consensus seems to be having a tepid effect. Bonds still seem concerned about a potential rate hike but there is probably some other crisis looming under the surface...home mortgages perhaps....Hopefully we see an equities bounce tomorrow..but perhaps not...Inquiring minds want to know.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  9. #857

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Just an FYI. I submitted an IFT at TSP.gov on Thursday. I wasn't paying any attention until last night when I logged in and noticed that they had not processed my IFT. Still sitting where I was on Wednesday. I left them an email and asked them to explain but doubt I'll hear anything back from them. In any case, just wanted all of you to make sure to didn't have a similar snafu..Now have to decide what to do..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #858

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Just an FYI. I submitted an IFT at TSP.gov on Thursday. I wasn't paying any attention until last night when I logged in and noticed that they had not processed my IFT. Still sitting where I was on Wednesday. I left them an email and asked them to explain but doubt I'll hear anything back from them. In any case, just wanted all of you to make sure to didn't have a similar snafu..Now have to decide what to do..

    FS
    FS

    If I remember correctly, Thursday was the day posting of prices was delayed. I think it did not happen until about 2:00 am Friday morning. Of course this does not help your situation, but apparently something was going on that delayed pricing (usually occurs around 7:30 Eastern time) and now it appears processing of IFT's was delayed as well. That will probably upset a lot of folks because Friday was an up day. If they do respond, I would love to hear what happened.

    Raven Out!

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  13. #859

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I always wondered about that because of the wording that says IFTs submitted by noon eastern are usually processed at the end of that day. Well, that means it may not be. Looks like that is what happened to you. You're entry on the AT here would also be out of sync now.

    What is our recourse if an IFT for Thursday does not go through until Friday? Can we check Friday morning and cancel the IFT if it in fact did not go through? I mean TSP has the legal recourse with that wording to game our IFTs against us if they choose. I know, I'm being paranoid but to quote Richard Nixon: "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they are not out to get you."
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  15. #860

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I'll post whatever response I get from them. Unfortunately I'm missing out on gains because of what has occurred. Today I need to make decision on whether to stay in the wrong place or chase the market or go to G until the next event.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  17. #861

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    What is our recourse if an IFT for Thursday does not go through until Friday? Can we check Friday morning and cancel the IFT if it in fact did not go through?
    Yes, you can change it before 12:00 EST

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  19. #862

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    TSP said they are looking into it. Will get back to me. With a lot happening this week, I need to figure out what horse I want to ride (equities, bond, or G fund).

    Some Things I'm Thinking About:
    I hate to chase the market..
    I expect the Fed to raise rates. That should increase yields making F look good for a day or 2.
    I also expect the dollar to fall a bit which is generally good for the stock market; especially energy companies but: Oil is in a downtrend and is expected to hit support at $45. Maybe something happens in the mid-east to scare prices up...certainly wouldn't surprise me.
    My understanding is that this is Options Expiration week which is generally bullish.
    The big kahuna would seem to be the Debt Ceiling. Will there be much controversy about raising it?

    I'm starting to think tomorrow could be a nice day up followed by a pullback or consolidation in the stock market on Wednesday and maybe Thursday. But I don't think the market will be too concerned at a .5% rate hike so we should have a resumption of the uptrend quickly IF the debt ceiling issue is worked out and oil prices don't take a dive. So I'm thinking maybe going to F for Wednesday and Thursday and then move to equities for the remainder of March. No idea if that makes any real sense but I'm not a bot so I get what I get...

    Also, I don't expect TSP to fix any error in my IFT. Just expect to move on and hope to regain it later. Will still post whatever they come back with...

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  20.  
  21. #863

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Hi, I am in process of revising some aspects of my strategy, and hope to get it fine tuned in next couple weeks. But in doing this, I have been thinking a lot about long term, versus middle and short term trading.

    I came to conclusion I can't stand to stay in long term. But at same time, short term plays are tough to time especially with limited IFTs. So started thinking, if I miss an exit maybe just ride it down and wait to go above entry point, recognizinng the exit was missed and also consider that we are in overall bull market, so increase confidence that trade will eventually turn positive.

    Its just hard to see the dip and have nothing to buyin with due to full investment at 100%. So this last time, i only entered st 80% to give myself a chance to alleviate exit errors while I work out strategy details. I mean really when you look at it, a missed exit only means you miss opportunity of making money when dip happens since you cant enter and lost opportunity as it goes up until it gets to your entry point. Still a had pill to swallow.

    Hummm... the quick in and out definitely can work. Wanted to exit today, but decided even if this is heading to a double bottom I'll stay in and invest last 20% at that point....maybe this week. So your thought to exit and re-enter makes sense!

    Best wishes to you and everyone on investments!!!!!!!!!

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  23. #864

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    DBA. You're an inspiration. By the way, you're starting to think like Birchtree..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
FogSailing's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
FogSailing's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
FogSailing's Account Talk
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FogSailing's Account Talk
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