Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Well, looks promising through Friday. I still expect profit taking but that may wait till later towards month end, "BUT" EOQ can also be bullish because we're moving into the 4th quarter so 2200 looks to be in range for next week assuming we close above pivot 2177 today and that appears very probable right now. FS

Closed at 2177.18...woohoo!!! 2200 here we come!

Looks like some profit taking today. Yesterday the planets were too aligned...those moments are sweet and rare...As long as we stay above 2163 today I think we move higher over the next period. Here's an interesting tidbit I picked up this morning.

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FS

Oil needs to stay above 44.38 or I expect further downside to SPX 2131. Hope this thing turns around and SPX holds at 2163 or higher. Currently CL is 44.58 but prices appear in decline. I guess those excess inventory levels are finally starting to impact. I still think we have further upside but it looks like there is some profit taking and consolidation going on...

FS

OK. We're headed into the last week of September. Trump and Hillary debate on Monday, new housing starts on Monday, and the Fed starts jabber-talking again on Monday. I'm reading a lot of nervousness in traders about an impact to the market because the debates trigger market downside.

My guess is that this market will stay its current course and limit it's downside to 15-20 points and then creep it's way forward again. I've read the three peaks and a dome stuff but these scary patterns have shown up a number of times this year and haven't resulted in the expected downturn/s so I'm aware of them but considering more data to try to make my decisions. Since 2194, the market has given and taken away in equal measure but the CBs seem to be keeping things level so more sideways action has been the norm. My guess is that the market will shed some additional weight and dip to around SPX 2160 before resuming the rally. Oil and the Yen need to stabilize more. Of course there's always the unknown event. South Korea's warning to North Korea last week could blow up into an international incident without warning... for example; and with the algos controlling so much of the trading, you don't how far they will go. I'd hate to be trashed by an algorithm. Support is at 2131 and 2116. If it were to pull back to less than 2116, I'd say the trend has changed.

I'm out until October and I'll reassess then. I'll be following the trend until it shows me it's going to change. With the long term MACD looking to go bullish, there appears to be more upside on the horizon...the question is when.

FS

Just want to thank Burro, Bquat, John Ross, JTH, Clester, FMW, DBA, Cactus, Tsunami, of course (Tom), and others who share their insights and thinking into the market for the rest of us. Burro, your comments on the ark this week are just great. I pulled a graphic of the market and it displays the market schizophrenia we are currently gripped in. Things are coming to a head in the SPX triangle and it could go either way; although the VIX and RSI, as of Friday, indicate that the bias could be positive. That said, I would not be surprised to be a big down day on Monday. But Yellen's comments last week and the resulting pullback in bonds would also indicate that more money heads into equities. We're moving back into earnings season and that will impact things as well. Best of luck in your October investing.

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FS

I was tempted to jump in today. SPX looks to be pulling back a bit. As long as it stays above 2145, I think MACD resets to look positive and tomorrow is an up day. Expect some news baloney to push the market up. The graphic below from one of blogs I read appears to indicate we are in an inverted head and shoulders pattern which could extend to 2180. Anything above 2163 and the bulls will be charging. That said, I'm still holding because I think the better opportunity comes at the end of the month. My guess is that the market will pull back to the 2100 area soon and that is when we get our best bang for the IFT... buck so I'm holding. Best of luck to all of you in your investing.

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FS

I like your plan FS. I'm currently invested 50% and still have both IFT's for October. With that said, I could see myself heading to safety at 2180 and then wait for the pullback to the 2100 area to jump back in.

Just hope I don't hit an iceberg on my way back to port...LOL

Don't worry, global warming is melting away all of the icebergs.

Boy, the day traders had some fun today, but otherwise the market was clearly waiting for the jobs report tomorrow to make the next move. I think there should be a fairly quick jump of 2-3% over the next week or less, but sure can't tell which way it will be.

Looks like we're in for a little more pain before we hit 2180...Guess I picked a bad day to give up drinking...;swear

I agree. The jobs news is worse than predicted and the ride in the unemployment rate is sending the market shivers. This is why I am coming to mistrust patterns. We've had 3 peaks and a dome which may now be starting to materialize, but took it's sweet time; and the inverted head and shoulders pattern which is also apparently taking it's sweet time to materialize....Next week will be interesting to see if the bulls will be buying the dip; or are we now on our way to 2120, 2100, or even 2075 pivots before this turns around. The market has been correcting slowly (lower highs and lower lows) if you look at the last two months so a bounce is on the way, the question is when. The bulls have been having it their way since last February so maybe this is a lull in the action and we'll see some bear activity.

FS

Dunno FS, I think "they" are going to prop this thing up until elections at a minimum just to cement the win for the liar. I do see turbulence afterwards until the acceptance of the rate hike. ...