Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

I understand the Japanese CB has said no to helicopter money and the EU banks are holding the line for additional stimulus (until Brexit is better understood). That means re-valuing the Yen and probably the Euro. Not good for American markets in the short term. Heading to the sidelines (100% G) until August.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

I understand the Japanese CB has said no to helicopter money and the EU banks are holding the line for additional stimulus (until Brexit is better understood). That means re-valuing the Yen and probably the Euro. Not good for American markets in the short term. Heading to the sidelines (100% G) until August.

FS

I agree. But, we both will be wrong and the market will go up.

Hi JKJ: IMHO, it's all about the various objectives of the CB's. My theory is that the CB's need to allow some uncertainty in the market to keep it on edge. If they do what everyone expects them to do when they expect them to do it...well makes for a predictable market. I was guessing that the market pulls back next week enough to put some fright into everyone since everyone is so bullish (no idea how it all unfolds...oil goes down...another crisis somewhere????, etc.), then in August the flood gates open to 2200. I'm probably wrong...it's total speculation on my part. PS: I'm usually wrong...maybe I should just set myself up on the Forum as a contrarian indicator. I'll call it the FF (Fogsailing Factor)...

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Hi JKJ: IMHO, it's all about the various objectives of the CB's. My theory is that the CB's need to allow some uncertainty in the market to keep it on edge. If they do what everyone expects them to do when they expect them to do it...well makes for a predictable market. I was guessing that the market pulls back next week enough to put some fright into everyone since everyone is so bullish (no idea how it all unfolds...oil goes down...another crisis somewhere????, etc.), then in August the flood gates open to 2200. I'm probably wrong...it's total speculation on my part. PS: I'm usually wrong...maybe I should just set myself up on the Forum as a contrarian indicator...

FS

I'm a better contrarian indicator than you. Just do the opposite of what I do.

I'm thinking you, Minnow, and I need our own club!!!

FS

Ah, so it's time to compare our contrarian indicator systems again? Well, here is my Cactus' Reverse And Profit system as of yesterday:

July 21, 2016

Cactus	CRAP
(5.11%)	15.43%

How does your's compare to that? Unfortunately my contrarian system is doing extremely well this year. I never learn. I keep saying it, some of us just aren't cut out to be investors.

Originally Posted by Cactus

Ah, so it's time to compare our contrarian indicator systems again? Well, here is my Cactus' Reverse And Profit system as of yesterday:

July 21, 2016

Cactus	CRAP
(5.11%)	15.43%

How does your's compare to that? Unfortunately my contrarian system is doing extremely well this year. I never learn. I keep saying it, some of us just aren't cut out to be investors.

I've been in a similar situation for years. I've been working on a seasonality system since 2006, and year after year I watch it beat my own returns....11 straight years in fact since as of the close today I'm only up about 0.5% while my systems are all up double digits YTD. Last fall I finally decided to get serious about fixing my dismal returns and I worked hard to finish it...and in fact ended up with 3 separate systems and finally, as of today's close I'm back in sync with my "Enhanced" and "Bull/Bear" systems at 50%S/50%I and will once again attempt to follow it from now on.

Originally Posted by Cactus

Ah, so it's time to compare our contrarian indicator systems again? Well, here is my Cactus' Reverse And Profit system as of yesterday:

July 21, 2016

Cactus	CRAP
(5.11%)	15.43%

How does your's compare to that? Unfortunately my contrarian system is doing extremely well this year. I never learn. I keep saying it, some of us just aren't cut out to be investors.

You're the winner Cactus....now cut the crap..

FS

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

Best of luck TS! I hope it works like a charm! Congrats on all the hard work it takes to create a system, and I respect all the work needed to maintain it. Same goes to Cactus!

FS

Picked this up from one of sites I enjoy reading: "SPX approaching a major long term trend line that we were above from 1997 but have been below since 2001." It sure looks like this market is headed to 2250 or roughly another 4%. A big part of me says just go long in August and hold on till we get there.

Attachment 38922

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Picked this up from one of sites I enjoy reading: "SPX approaching a major long term trend line that we were above from 1997 but have been below since 2001." It sure looks like this market is headed to 2250 or roughly another 4%. A big part of me says just go long in August and hold on till we get there.



FS

What a coincidence..............