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Reply With QuoteLooking at today's action, I'm thinking PPT.
Attachment 38341
FS
Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
My guess is that three big events over the next month that will determine were the stock market goes. The first week of June is the job report and should be weak given the rising initial claims (see the 1-yr trend at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IC4WSA). A weak jobs report raises questions about a Fed rate hike so expect a positive response (target guestimate is SPX 2085). Next on June 15th the Fed announcement where a “No” vote will likely see the SPX up to 2100. Finally, the Brexit vote on June 23rd where a “No” vote will likely see the SPX up to the previous ATH at 2135. Different outcomes will most likely not be positive.
Also, sentiment is virtually unchanged for the week both intermediate (2 to 6 months) and short term (2 to 6 weeks).
On the Bearish side this was posted by a bear analyst I follow: "2025 is recognized by a fair few as 'market critical'... although that could be endlessly argued over. What should be clear... the market has been quietly cooling from the April 20th high of 2111. Price action remains very choppy.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for a fourth week. At the current rate, there will be a bearish cross in the last week of May... or first week of June. By definition, that will be the first realistic opportunity for a powerful move lower.
Best guess: near term downside to the 1990/1960 zone... before another bounce of 3-4%.... and then the first big move lower.
Unless equity bulls can break back into the 2100s, they have little reason to be confident, and should instead be concerned about a down wave that should (at minimum) be equivalent in scale to Jan'2016 and Aug'2015"
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
Looking at today's action, I'm thinking PPT.
Attachment 38341
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
Thought this article was a good read.
Stock market euphoria might be at an all-time high - Business Insider
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
A good article. It's probably wrong because it makes so much sense....
Charles Bolin's Detailed Investment Outlook - Market Topping, Economic Data in Decline | Charles Bolin | FINANCIAL SENSE
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
For those interested in Bradley Turn Dates
Bradley Siderograph 2016 Turn Dates - S&P 500 - Donald Bradley Siderograph - Bradley Turn Dates - Stock Market Prediction
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
FS, is it a correct interpretation that the Bradley siderograph depicts the SPX as rising from June 4 to July 1, 2016 (approx)? Thanks.Originally Posted by FogSailing
Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
I'll chime in on that question....Bradley turn dates are just that, potential turn dates. They never predict highs or lows. I'd suggest you look at the past dates and compare them with reality. If you do that you'll probably come up with the same conclusion that I did (that, in my opinion, they're totally useless, but once in a blue moon a turn date is accurate...like a stopped clock). Having said that, I have found that the lunar phases do seem to have some influence, especially during the slower trading months of the year from June - August.
P.S. - Just to close out my comment about buying puts late yesterday on Whipsaw's thread...I closed those out this morning for a small gain since the moves over the last 24 hours have been sideways, suggesting consolidation and another move higher should be imminent.... so I'm back to 100% cash and looking to re-establish a short position a bit higher, still hoping to see the S&P eek out one more touch of 2100....one problem with that is I think every trader on the planet has a stop or at least a mental stop at 2111, so if that breaks the short covering could be spectacular.
Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
Sort of TS....What it depicts is that there is an expected turn in the market based on sentiment and investor psychology all premised on planetary movements. For example, the sideograph is expecting a turn on June 1st. If the market currently has strong momentum in a specific direction (that will usually play out ...for example if its in an upswing that upswing will complete but the turn is in process). However, in general, the sideograph indicates that the markets will move up because of investor sentiment during this turn. I hope I explained that well enough..All the best.
FS
FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
Lots of bulls expecting new highs and lots of bears concerned about getting too short and getting squeezed...so....new all time highs?
Attachment 38362
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
This is a thoughtful article.
It Feels Like Inflation
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FogSailing
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Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
A proud picture of my TSP collection located on my bookcase in the BatCave...
Attachment 38373
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FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
Graphs posted by a blogger I follow:
Attachment 38375
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FogSailing
Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.
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