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Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

  1. #493

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
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    Valatie, NY
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    288

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    ......Look forward to coming back out when a reasonable opportunity presents itself in March or April.

    FS
    sadly I have to agree, I was hoping to get in at beginning of the last 2 months and I ended up getting out again almost as soon as I was in, both times... licking my wounds but not having bled too much.

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  3. #494

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    On a Florida beach
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    1,454

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    The market had a bullish setup and failed. That is very bearish.....

    FS
    I'm afraid that I have to agree at this point as well unless there's a miraculous turnaround in the futures overnight. The bulls had a perfect setup to take the S&P up into the mid- to upper 1900s over the next week or two, but there just aren't enough buyers to get it done. Looks like I'll be forced to lock in a loss on this trade tomorrow to avoid taking a beating in a wave 3 of 3 down.

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  5. #495

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    uh oh, the forecast calls for pain.
    100g


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  7. #496

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
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    3,024

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Some interesting information on the market I picked up from a blog I follow:

    Comment:
    Following up on some of those great fundamentals…

    S&P 4Q15 earnings season to-date:
    370/500 reported
    sales -4.18%
    earns -5.65%

    Markets sealed the fate that this point; we will have had 3 qtrs of declining earnings, and 4 qtrs of declining sales

    Energy, if anybody is interested on that one in particular:
    23/40 reported
    sales -33.43%
    earns -73.67%

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  8.  
  9. #497

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Just for kicks and giggles I decided to trace out the Elliott wave since SPX 2082. There are many ways to count EW so this is just my opinion. Those with much greater skill and technical expertise would likely disagree.

    Assumptions:

    SPX 2082 to 1812 = Wave A (270 points)
    SPX 1812 to 1916 = Wave B (104 points or 38.1% retracement)
    SPX 1916 to 1828 = Wave 1 or 1 of C (88 points)
    SPX 1828 to 1882 = Wave 2 of 1 of C (54 points or 61.5 % retracement of Wave 1 of 1 of C)
    SPX 1882 to 1829 = Wave 3 of 1 of C (53 points or 61.5% retracement of Wave 1 of 1 of C and Wave 2 =Wave 3)
    Tomorrow SPX 1829 to 1862 = Wave 4 of 1 of C (33 points or 61.8% retracement of Wave 3 of 1 of C)
    Next Tuesday SPX 1862 to 1791 - Wave 5 of 1 of C (88 points or Wave 1 = Wave 5)

    Here's a picture. It will be interesting to see how tomorrow and next Tuesday play out. If I understand things correctly, Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1 (i.e BUT Wave 4 has the potential to be greater than 61.8 Fib retracement of Wave 3 (61.8% Fib retracement is my assumption) and 88 points would be the maximum Wave 4 could extend (or 1917) without breaking the rules). All of this assumes the count is correct. I tend to use conservative counts when playing with these things.

    Attachment 37071

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #498

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    so what does that mean? what is that graph trying to say? engrish prease.
    100g

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  13. #499

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Bottom line: Tomorrow should be an up day with a range from about 1838 to 1917 depending on what mood the market is in. If tomorrows wave (the 4th wave) retraces 61.8% (sort of an average) then 1862 will be tomorrows target. If 1862 is the number, then the 5th Wave (sounds kinda like a movie) should retrace the equivalent of Wave 1 or 88 points to 1791 on Tuesday.

    All that assume the 4th wave doesn't subdivide. Bots like to subdivide waves. This makes wave counting a pain the a$$ and one of the reasons I don't do it very often.

    Anyways, that's my attempt at engrish..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  15. #500

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Bottom line: Tomorrow should be an up day with a range from about 1838 to 1917 depending on what mood the market is in. If tomorrows wave (the 4th wave) retraces 61.8% (sort of an average) then 1862 will be tomorrows target. If 1862 is the number, then the 5th Wave (sounds kinda like a movie) should retrace the equivalent of Wave 1 or 88 points to 1791 on Tuesday.

    All that assume the 4th wave doesn't subdivide. Bots like to subdivide waves. Makes wave counting a pain the a$$.

    Anyways, that's my attempt at engrish..

    FS
    so basically that's up maybe but maybe down and then maybe down some more or else maybe up, or up some more and any of this could happen well pretty soon, maybe?

    ok, i got this wave stuff down now. maybe.

    is your money in or is your money out? that is more my language. i can't understand the other things.
    100g

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  17. #501

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Tomorrow - UP....Tuesday - DOWNNNNNNN (Expectations Not predictions)

    I'm out as of yesterday. Sitting in G till March. I had been in F...not a bad place UNTIL I started looking at the technicals and thought Wednesday would be it ...WRONG....Tomorrow will be it. That about sums up my story.

    If tomorrow is DOWN....I got the count wrong...which wouldn't surprise me.

    FS
    Last edited by FogSailing; 02-11-2016 at 09:40 PM.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  19. #502

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Tomorrow - UP....Tuesday - DOWNNNNNNN
    ok, got it. but i disagree.

    tomorrow down. tuesday downnnnn. wednesday down some more holy crap somebody do something. thursday crap i have to go look for another job, honey bring me the paper. honey? honey? honey?
    100g

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  21. #503

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Every once in a while I think it's good to look back at a time when we faced a difficult market and reflect on those moments. Below is are two excerpts from old posts I keep around to remind me of those difficult months:

    September 29, 2008

    A further decline to 1161 followed, and then a bounce to 1172 by 1:30 as the House was voting upon the "bailout plan". When the bill failed to get the required votes the market plummeted. Nearing 2:00 the SPX made a new low for the downtrend at 1126. The potential Primary wave B rally had failed, along with the "bailout plan". The SPX then bounced to 1150, and just past 2:00 rejection of the bill was announced. The bill was rejected 228-205, as more than two-thirds of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats opposed the bill. "We’re all worried about losing our jobs," Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., declared in an impassioned speech in support of the bill before the vote. "Most of us say, ‘I want this thing to pass, but I want you to vote for it – not me.’" Politics before country ruled the day!

    March 6, 2009

    The US unemployment rate hit 8.1% last month, its highest level since the early 1980’s. Most economic reports also displayed a continuing contraction in activity. The equity markets responded with their worse week since November. The DOW dropped under 7,000 (now at 1997 levels) and the SPX under 700 (at 1996 levels). For the week the SPX/DOW were -6.6%, and the NDX/NAZ were -5.4%. Asian markets were down 5%-7%, but China rose 5.3%. Europe lost 6.2%, and the Commodity equity markets were -4.8%. Bonds were +1.4%, Crude gained 1.7%, and both Gold and the Euro were flat.

    By the end of this week the bear market will be entering its 18th month, and the loses are mounting. The SPX is down 58% from its October 2007 high, the NAZ down 56%, and the DOW/NDX have lost 54% of their value. Since 1932 there have been only two other times that the DOW had lost more than 40% during a bear market. The 1973-1974 Cyclical bear market (47%), and the 1937-1942 Cyclical bear market (53%). The current loss in the DOW has now exceeded both, suggesting that we are in a Super cyclical bear market. The last Super cycle bear market occurred between 1929-1932, and the DOW lost 89% of its value during that 34 month period. The rule of alternation, however, suggests that this Super cycle bear market should alternate in wave structure with its predecessor. Since the 1929-1932 bear market was a large zigzag, this bear market should take the form of a flat, triangle or complex structure. The most common alternating wave structure is a flat. This suggests after the initial low is established, a strong rally should follow, and then a retest of that low should end the bear market. This remains the preferred scenario. In regard to time, this bear market could end as early as 2010, or as late as 2012.

    Here is a picture of how bears markets are similar in many ways (I think this is 1996 and 2009):

    Attachment 37112

    Those were some difficult days and based on the fact that so many of us are still very bullish, it's going to be a while before we move through this bear. My thinking is that the high for last May was 2135 and the bear really started then. We're almost a year later and things are pulling back in a steady almost methodical way. However we are coming close to a point where there is going to be a major slide downward.

    The good news is that past experience and technology are real tools when we go through these downturns, and getting "burned" is something that teaches us lessons we generally remember when similar situations show themselves. My expectations are that there may be a small bounce next week but it will be limited to about 1917 tops, and probably choppy. This should all conclude next week followed by market heading down (possibly as low as 1640 but probably in the mid 1700's) before we have another move big bounce. After that bounce I expect that we will enter the bear market in earnest.

    Be safe out there!!!

    FS

    All the best in your investing.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  23. #504

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Very nice of you to spend the time and inform us. I think you are going to be right, but back in 2008/09 it felt bad even at the beginning, I dont have that overall sense. I feel it is going to be choppy for a bit, enough to have a crazy election.


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