Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

Hau'oli La Ho'omaiki'i La Kakou !

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone ! I hope everyone enjoyed their day with love, gratitude, and lots of good eats! It's 5pm in the Hawaiian Islands and the sun is still shining bright. Still time to go outside with the Thanksgiving dessert and watch the sunset. The cleanup can wait....not my favorite part. I just wanted to end this perfect day with a little humor.

Some of you may remember the the tv sitcom "WKRP in Cincinati"...this is a funny clip from one of their Thanksgiving shows. ��
Aloha!

Always loved that program KK!! Thanks! Sounds like a beautiful day in Hawaii and that you have had a wonderful day!

FS

Looks like we've arrived at the moment of truth...will the fed raise the interest rate this week? From the tone, the news is certainly slanted that way BUT, what if Janet doesn't. GDP is down and inflation hasn't cranked up enough to justify a rate increase if they base it on the data....right?

I'm guessing that tomorrow is an up day for SPX...somewhere between 2095 and 2100 followed by a pullback....nothing big; but possibly up to 30 points. If the Fed does increase the rates, seems reasonable that we're in for volatility through Friday. Fed execs are speaking practically every day next week according to the economic calendar so it sure sounds like a plus up for the rate increase BUT what if they don't raise rates?

If they don't raise rates...either someone is going to make a lot of money on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday or we see the market tank down a bit further from DOVE SHOCK.

Roll the dice...it's going to be a wild week.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Looks like we've arrived at the moment of truth...will the fed raise the interest rate this week? From the tone, the news is certainly slanted that way BUT, what if Janet doesn't. GDP is down and inflation hasn't cranked up enough to justify a rate increase if they base it on the data....right?

I'm guessing that tomorrow is an up day for SPX...somewhere between 2095 and 2100 followed by a pullback....nothing big; but possibly up to 30 points. If the Fed does increase the rates, seems reasonable that we're in for volatility through Friday. Fed execs are speaking practically every day next week according to the economic calendar so it sure sounds like a plus up for the rate increase BUT what if they don't raise rates?

If they don't raise rates...either someone is going to make a lot of money on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday or we see the market tank down a bit further from DOVE SHOCK.

Roll the dice...it's going to be a wild week.

FS

FogSailing,

What date would the Fed announce if it raises rates or if they hold rates as they are? Tia.

Hi Tia. The FOMC Meeting begins tomorrow and the minutes are stated at 12n on Wednesday.

FS

Tia...My mistake...The FOMC meeting begins on Dec 15 with minutes on Wednesday, Dec 16th. I wasn't focusing on the dates last night when I wrote that...in other words...NEVER MIND...

FS

Well, now that I've got the date and time right, here's a chart that looks at support for the S&P tomorrow. If it pulls back, it will likely bounce at support 2060 and then hopefully head back up. At least that's what I'm telling myself...

Attachment 36124

FS

You have to love statistics...If the 1st of December is positive, the market is up 93% of the time based on this table..

Attachment 36143

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

You have to love statistics...If the 1st of December is positive, the market is up 93% of the time based on this table..

FS

I've read an analysis on this type of statistic. It basically states that if you wait until after the 1st to trade based on what the 1st did, you'll affect the returns--because the returns they quote include the 1st.

But you can't trade on the 1st if your trade is based on what happens on the 1st.

They should be giving you the returns starting from the 2nd, after you've had a chance to see what happens on the 1st, but they don't.

If they did, I suspect you'll find there's not much of a tradable correlation--I believe that's what the write up I'm remembering concluded.

It also stated the same thing for "as January goes, so does the year." (You have to wait until after January to see how it goes; but the statistics they quote include the January figures.)

Buyer beware.

Darn Q: I think you bursted my Santa bubble....oh well fun while it lasted. Guess it only goes to show that statistics can be easily manipulated...wish they'd mentioned that in the graph legend.

Still have my hopes up for a 2-4%% December..

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Tia...My mistake...The FOMC meeting begins on Dec 15 with minutes on Wednesday, Dec 16th. I wasn't focusing on the dates last night when I wrote that...in other words...NEVER MIND...

FS

Hi FS... But your still partly right. There is a meeting this afternoon that Yellin will speak at. Then she talks again tomorrow morning giving testimony before Congress. Then Dec 15/16 FOMC and the decision on interest rates. I read she most likely would not say anything to change anything up this afternoon or tomorrow, but who knows. Every word will be dissected and taken in by the market.

Then OPEC meets on Friday but supposedly Saudi Arabia will not go with any change to production so that seems moot. Also, since crude is tracking down a bit, might mean more downside to market if it doesn't go up. Then the big one is the jobs report on Friday. If its not good, then that might mean no rate hike..... but who knows. It's crazy.....

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!

P.S. Also heard this morning that the GDP numbers were revised down. I should think that will affect market. it was dropped down below 2. Humm.....