Re: FogSailing's Account Talk
Originally Posted by
FogSailing
You have to love statistics...If the 1st of December is positive, the market is up 93% of the time based on this table..
FS
I've read an analysis on this type of statistic. It basically states that if you wait until after the 1st to trade based on what the 1st did, you'll affect the returns--because the returns they quote include the 1st.
But you can't trade on the 1st if your trade is based on what happens on the 1st.
They should be giving you the returns starting from the 2nd, after you've had a chance to see what happens on the 1st, but they don't.
If they did, I suspect you'll find there's not much of a tradable correlation--I believe that's what the write up I'm remembering concluded.
It also stated the same thing for "as January goes, so does the year." (You have to wait until after January to see how it goes; but the statistics they quote include the January figures.)
Buyer beware.
[COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]
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