Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

Originally Posted by FogSailing

I was considering jumping into the F Fund tomorrow (at least partially for August-September). just saw this article so will have to look at what happens overnight and its impact on bond market.

Puerto Rico defaults on bond payment: Moody's - Yahoo Finance

All the best in your investing.

puerto rico signaled its intention to default on the psc bond payment last month but it got overshadowed by greece. they also confirmed it again last week. if you think you are going to scoop a 30 day old bond scalp you are sorely mistaken. the market does not work like that.

Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory of the United States. Will it be allowed to default?

Originally Posted by PessOptimist

Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory of the United States. Will it be allowed to default?

no. their children will become tax slaves. just like ours. that is why nobody is worried about this event. who needs money when you got blood?

There are several factors I'm considering right now Burro... First is seasonality. This is the time to play the F Fund if I'm going to do it. I've followed the news on Puerto Rico so I am concerned about the "immediate" impact to the bond market. The second is my "gut" feeling that equities have another spike up this month despite Greece, Iran, Big Oil, Transportation Sector, China; not to mention the normal craziness in Syria. Once all the hullaballoo settles down, the reduced commodity prices will be a good thing for most consumers and in turn the markets. So, I'm still tempted to be highly invested in equities (C, S, and I) despite the current volatility. The S&P should still "average" an additional 100 point gain through the end of the year based on the last 5 years of data. In some ways I think this market just got a new lease on life with the reduced commodity prices but there needs to be some downside action first to rebalance the system. So, my gut say goes F Fund until the system rebalances and then jump back into equities. The problem is that with our IFT structure we can't be nimble enough to react to "real bad" news fast enough. The good thing is I'm not paralyzed by it. Another factor, the VIX looks to me like its signaling a move up in equities. I just need to make my decision and get on with it.

All the best in your investing!

FS

I doubt it PO. This isn't AIG, more like the Savings and Loan Real Estate debacle of the 80's. It was painful but managed.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Interesting day! As of a few minutes ago, S&P was still above the support level of 2085. If it holds tomorrow, I think it will be a nice up...unfortunately I'll be too late to catch that one. However, if it fails, the next level down is 2077 and from there around 2046. if it drops below that...I'll be glad to stay in G.

On the Autotracker...13 of the Top 50 are invested to some extent. The Top 5 are all G Fund as of this morning. For those Top 50 invested, it shakes out like this...62.7% are S fund, 21.5% are I, and the rest are nits and nats of about 6%, except that: NO ONE IS F.

Best of Luck to all of you in your investing.

FS

Interesting posts here. I just wanted to point out that top Auto-Tracker folks shunning the F fund right now may not mean that (they believe) the F fund is going down; it could mean that (they believe) other stuff is going 'more up.'...for now.

It's like we're all hunkered down waiting for the other shoe to drop...concerned about venturing out into the forest..

Most of the Top 50 still in G holding their powder..

FS

Trying to think ahead a little for tomorrow. Right now, here is how things look to me.

Analysis of Todays Charts
18 EMA, 50 and 100 SMA
VIX 50 100 18 Notes: 18 EMA appears to be headed upward, 50 SMA above 100 SMA
C 18 100 50 Notes: POTENTIAL Bear cross, 18 EMA appears to be headed downward
S 100 50 18 Notes: Probable Bear cross, 18 EMA appears to be headed downward
I 100 50 18 Notes: Probable Bear cross, 18 EMA appears to be headed downward
F 100 18 50 Notes: 18 EMA is moving north, crossed 50 SMA but 50 SMA remains below 100SMA

Based on the data I'd have to say that F appears to be the best option at this moment if I were to decide to jump in (the probability is becoming less). None of the funds look stellar. While the MACD for SPX, EFA, and DWCPF all appear to be in positive territory, the Vortex Indicator for each appear to be diverging and those conflicting signals give me pause on equities.

If equities continue to move into negative territory, F Fund is a potential choice.

This is not advice to anyone, just my rambling.

All the best to you in your investing.

FS

Good analysis FS. I'm seeing the same numbers as you and continue to sit on the Lilly pad waiting for that elusive buy signal. Although tempting, I'm not sure the F Fund is the place to head to as this mornings job report probably means interest rates will be raised in September which is bad for the F Fund...

By the way, congrats on winning the July Jobs Report Contest!!! You da man!

Thanks Raven. I agree with you on the F Fund. Those jobs numbers change the game.

You'll appreciate my extensive analysis for the jobs numbers. I wrote down 10 numbers in a scattered fashion on a white tablet using different colored pencils and ink, then closed my eyes, spun the tablet, and picked one. Amazing!! BTW, this may become my new system for picking which funds to invest in!

FS

Originally Posted by ravensfan

By the way, congrats on winning the July Jobs Report Contest!!! You da man!

yes, congratulations...