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Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

  1. #745

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    IT, I admit that I have been struggling with the market and I've been all over the map this year. In theory, the SPX could get to 2335 or higher, the 1.618 times relationship to the corrective wave (2135-1810), but the immediate Fib pivots indicate a more probable 4%. Today, it looks like it's headed up; but by Aug 1st I could be questioning whether I should be in at all. Frankly, the involvement of the CB's has really undermined my trust in the system.

    but back to your point...there are no excuses for the paranoia... except they're all out to get me..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  3. #746

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    It sure looks like this market is headed to 2250 or roughly another 4%.

    FS
    I think so too. My favorite e-wave guy PUG has 2246 as the minimum target, but likely higher.
    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (see 7/11 tweet)

    I've been working on divorcing myself from predictions, good or bad ones, so I no longer have to worry about permabear predictions like this next one. The only way I could see this panning out would be if we got a super bad jobs report on 8/5...
    Weekly Forecast: Week of July 25th, 2016

  4.  
  5. #747

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I think so too. My favorite e-wave guy PUG has 2246 as the minimum target, but likely higher.
    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (see 7/11 tweet)

    I've been working on divorcing myself from predictions, good or bad ones, so I no longer have to worry about permabear predictions like this next one. The only way I could see this panning out would be if we got a super bad jobs report on 8/5...
    Weekly Forecast: Week of July 25th, 2016
    I started following PUG on twitter. How accurate is he?
    Is today Saturday again?


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  7. #748

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jkenjohnson View Post
    I started following PUG on twitter. How accurate is he?
    Can't really put a number on that, but what I like about him is that he's neither a perma-bear or bull, and when he's wrong he realizes it immediately and changes the wave count accordingly. I've made some good $ with him waiting patiently for wave 3 setups, and then using options or 3x ETFs. Most Elliott wave guys like Daneric, the elliottwave.com guys, and Robert McHugh...they're forever bearish and predicting the next crash is looming.

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  9. #749

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Absolutely agree TS. It took me a while to understand that the bears on those sites overwhelm the bulls. For most of January through the first major upward swing thru April, I put TOO MUCH confidence in the EW guys. Big mistake on my part. I just like it when folks post their view and the reasons to support it and stay away from all the bashing that goes on.

    Since then, I really have backed off EW except for Fib analysis of probable pivots up and down. The TA indicators (Breadth, Momentum, McClellan, Confidence Levels, CB news, and the standard RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, FX, Oil, and Sto's) make up the usual suspects I review. Anyways, while I still read a few sites, I follow IT these days. I have a lot of respect for all who do technical analysis, but IT's approach works for me. I wish I had a tenth of whatever it is he has. Also wish Birchtree was still posting. I miss his perma-bull approach to life.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #750

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Yen continues to appreciate, oil continues to drop, RSI, STO, and MACD are all cooling....and the market has pulled backed for 3 days....but the Volume is a bit LOW...reminds me of the ship commander saying "steady as she goes" and makes you wonder if this is some kind of fake out? I still expect to see 2200 to 2250 as the target. I was hoping for a pull back to 2120 before jumping back in but we may not pull back that far.. holding in G another day to see how this unfolds. I think the Friday jobs number is going to be a big market mover..

    Attachment 39000

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  13. #751

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Read this AM that BoE lowered the interest rate. The CB's know how to party...

    Attachment 39017

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  15. #752

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Looks like RSI is on the rise but only at the 61ish so there is still upside, MACD had turned skyward as has Slow Sto....Some EW guys are saying 2180 was a high and now expect a turnback to 2135 area, but others say 2180 is Intermediate Wave 5 that is extending so no real clues there. Oil seems to be dropping but still topping $40 and FX seems stable....Tom's sentiment trade graph indicates better than average returns through 8/18...but it was at this time last year when things went belly up...what to do what to do..

    Attachment 39027

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  17. #753

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I'm definitely feeling bullish, but so is the rest of the world. When sentiment is this high, it's time to be cautious.

    Attachment 39049

    Also the daily MACD is -so far- not confirming the up move either as it hasn’t given a buy crossover yet.

    I'll be watching. Want to hold through Friday at least. My gut says this market needs to get to 2195 or higher before it pulls back...but that's the problem..it's a gut feeling..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  19. #754

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Tsp talk sentiment survey is not that bullish.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  21. #755

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    AAII Survey. The new one comes out Thursday.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #756

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Thanks Tom. I like your chart better because it allows me to willing to walk the wall of worry for a bit longer....I guess it all comes down to who's responding to the surveys....still, that pie chart I received is making it's way around the internet to a lot of traders and investors. I'll watch for Thursday's update and will be interested to see where things are on the AAII survey. As I'm watching this am, I have to say that USD\JPY and EUR\JPY have me concerned. The Yen is strengthening quickly and more than I'd like to see. The good news is that VIX and OIL look healthy for the moment. I'm hoping that the YEN devalues Wed through Friday Options Expiration and oil and VIX hold their own. I'd love to see the MACD crossover on SPX. We'll see how it goes.

    FS
    Last edited by FogSailing; 08-09-2016 at 09:49 AM.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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