Thread: The Peake's account talk

Well I read something interesting today, but I am not sure if it is true. I have been thinking about limiting my IFT's anyway, but this really got me thinking. Someone said that the S&P averaged 12% a year for the past 20 years, but if you missed the 40 biggest days in that span you only saw a 3% return. Does anyone think that is correct? If so then missing those big days would really kill a return. But I guess by the same measure, I wonder what the return would be if you sidestepped the 40 biggest loses during that time.
Just an interesting thing I heard that I thought I would share since it provoked a lot of thought in me.

The biggest days of gains pretty much happen in reactions to the biggest days of losses. So I wonder if the approach would be to only go in after the big losses?

I wonder what the return would be if you camped out in the G, and then after days after huge losses pop into stocks for one day. Would that formula beat the S&P? I am not going to try it, but I am thinking of limiting my IFT's to once a month. I think the less moving around I do, the better shot I don't miss a day completely.

I don't think it would be that hard to backtest in Excel. Just have it keep track of average daily gains. If it goes below 2 standard deviations of those averages, go all in for the next few months (or days). Get out after some other trigger and wait for the next drop.

Well I haven't posted or made a move in awhile. I have been limiting my transactions and I have enjoyed just sitting at 50% C and 50% I. Sure it would have been nice to avoid a few downfalls, but it was nice to not miss the big up days. I think I am going to be moving my funds around soon and picking up a little of the G fund. No real reason, just being another monkey throwing darts. I would have made the move COB today, but I consulted the EbbTracker which disagreed with that move. I decided to wait until both the Ebbtracker and my gut are aligned.

I really wish I would have made this move a month ago, but better late than never. I decided to pick up some G fund. I have a long way to go until retirement so I have to keep some stocks. Not sure how long I am going to stick with 50% G, but I think I am going to play it safe for next few months and see how everything shakes out. I should have followed my gut last month. Oh well...