Thread: What is your allocation?

Stopped out of all my shorts :X. Should of been more greedy. Also shorted Intel because I think the report tomorrow is going to be bad. Stand by for heavy rolls when that report is released.

If you want to see the state of the U.S. stock market follow the SOXX index. If you watch this Jan 00 it predicated a bear market that started in Mar 00. I feel good about getting my .01 every week or so in G fund! Capital preservation is king, it is easy to make money but it is hard to keep if you get sucked in and sandpapered by this market!!!

Hi MT and Others!

My allocations are based on market timing, for now.

I am not a stock marketanalyist. And my experience is from other mutual funds and my own research, and observations. Donot take my messages as anything other. I do appreciate this site and themessages of all members!

In 2003, I invested in the C-S-I funds and let it ride the stock market "coaster" up. It was in the neighborhood of 40-40-10. However, after a few months in 2004 the market changed. It turned bearish, and started oscillating in cycles of approximately 30 days. I added a 20 day moving average to the (my) S&P 500 chart. They didn't have a 15 day line. So I figured 20 was close enough. I have also added the Parabolic SAR to the chart (as back up). When the MA and the SAR are under and going up, I invest in the C-S-I funds. Conversely, when the MA and SAR switch, I'll transfer to the G fund. The F fund is sort of off limits with rising interest rates. My allocations in C-F-I are calculated close to their returns of 15 days. Right now I am in stocks at 35-45-20. And, nerviously await the week after the convention which some say has been historically choppy.

I wish the 2003 market would return, it was a good market, a marketthat you could let things ride. Right now the market isfull of pot holes.

Caution. I found out the hard way that market timing needs almost daily attention. I got working on something else, and didn't catch the July cycle shift till it was almost too late. So, if anyone reads this reply, beware.

Caution. I only respond to Web sites from my personal computer at home after work. I do not trust the government computer at work. During breaks or lunch I may check things, and I always delete my history.

Is the glass half full or half empty. It all depends on how you look at it. Will next week be a good week. Well as I look at it, If I'm here next week, it's great:^

:%New here and not sure if this is a stupid question but when you all talk about making daily, weekly or monthly changes to your funds, are you talking about future contributions or interfund transfers and getting everthing into or out of a certain fund? I have some in the F-fund but do I leave in what's there or move it all?

Thanks and looking forward to learning much more

tsp rules

-from F go to G when rate raise

-from G go to F when interes rate top prising



You have to watch, is interes rate gonna raise? get out asap

put an eyes on greenspan next talk ...:^.

....just basic babys tep...

Paul wrote:

:%New here and not sure if this is a stupid question but when you all talk about making daily, weekly or monthly changes to your funds, are you talking about future contributions or interfund transfers and getting everthing into or out of a certain fund? I have some in the F-fund but do I leave in what's there or move it all?

Thanks and looking forward to learning much more

Welcome Paul! I'm talking about interfund transfers.

Tom

Members' Allocation Talk

We have the S and I funds. I think it was 2001 that they came into being for us. In 2003 I started transfering into these funds based on some accounts I have with Fidelity, and by shear luck caught on to the bull market . However, after Feburary 2003 the market started it's cycles and it quickly impressed me that buy and hold may not be the course of action I should be using. Consequently, I went to market timing. But I needed a system and some help. Following moving averages on a 15-20 day basis, and being a member of this site is basically the heart of my system, supplemented by market reports on USA Today.

I use the G fund as a safe haven when the market turns bearish from the moving averages. The F fund, I stay away from (for now) because interest rates are rising.

On August 12th TSP funds hit the current low and the moving averages started back up. I transfered funds on August 17th to 0-0-30-40-30, and Sept 3rd to 0-0-35-45-20. Last week I refigured the proportional returns from August 12th to date. and tweaked my allocations to 0-0-30-45-25 effective 09-14-04.

I think I'll stay here until the 15-20 day moving averages, sends a signal to move. In the mean time, I will be listening to what members have to say, and I enjoy the comments!

Looks like Ivan is affecting New Orleans, it closed down the TSP service center.

Any way since we can't make allocation changes for the next several days. I would like to talk about market timing allocations for a good (bullish) market, and get your feedback.

I have been using a proportion method of 15 or more days of return stats between the C-S-I funds. I like C+S because it represents the total market. I feel more comfortable with the diversification. Over the past 12 mo. C returned 11.35%, S:12.22.S has posted higher minus's, at which time I should be in the G or F fund. To wit I monitor averages daily. And, will reallocate within 24 hrs.

In talking with Tom, he uses (when aggressive)the S and I funds rather than C, and depending on how the dollar is doingwhich one (S or I) to go heavier.Use C if the small caps start lagging.

Tom could you elaborate, what data do you look at? How do you figure the %. You might well have the better method. Would like to hear more.

What methods do other members use in determining their allocations?

I feel that this topic is very important, especially for new folks and members that need something that they can evaluate to their best advantage.

Spaf wrote:

In talking with Tom, he uses (when aggressive)the S and I funds rather than C, and depending on how the dollar is doingwhich one (S or I) to go heavier.Use C if the small caps start lagging.

Tom could you elaborate, what data do you look at? How do you figure the %. You might well have the better method. Would like to hear more.

This might be disappointing, but I don't have an exact science for picking the percentage for funds. It's normally 100%, or 50/50, or 70/30, or 20% in each, depending on the situations I talked about before that you mentioned. The dollar will affect how heavy I get into the I fund. If the dollar looks to be ready to tumble, I may go 100% I, or 70% I, 30% S.

I just don't codify my allocations within the stock funds with anything other than a feel for what should do better. Of course the G and F fund will be used if I feel the market will go down. This is just about the 3 stock funds.

Tom

Tom. Thanks for describing your system for allocations!

Here is some additional information for discussion. From August 12, 2004 to September 14, 2004, the market has been going up.

The following are the stats on the various TSP funds for that time:

Funds G F C S I

As of 8-12-0410.51 10.21 11.25 11.87 12.80

As of 9-13-04 10.5510.30 11.93 12.91 13.43

Change .04 .09 .68 1.04 .63

Stat wise the S fund was the big player. However, this isa stat based on hindsight (period).

Not finding information on specific fundrisks. But based on the TSP records for 2004, on a scale of 0-10 [noting that TSP funds are securities, bond index, and stock index funds]. My opinion would be G=0, F=2, C=3, S=5, and I=3. Not high risk funds, but yes there is some risk. So, is the S fund at 1.04 best? No! It depends on your risk tolerance. If 100% S causes you to stay awake at nights, you probably need a better allocation. I kind of like mine split between the three stock funds in good times. Your allocation is your decision! It basically needs to be comfortable to you, and your time frame in the system, market, etc.

Attached is a Yahoo chart of the S&P for this time frame as discussed above.

TSP vs U-Haul

TSP is a member managed system. TSP will supply the stats about the funds, but it is your decision on transfers and allocations. If you are a buy and hold TSP investor then this site has recommendations on this topic, see Current Market & fund comments/ Long term market outlook (thanks Tom! Good Info). TSP is kind of like U-Haul, they give you all the stuff, but how you get there is your decision.

The TSP accounts have very low expense ratios, so profits are not being eaten up by paying folks to manage accounts, they are basically index funds, designed to track the norm. HOWEVER, the catch, is that most members of TSP are novices to investing (myself included). Information on how best to manage these accounts are basically left up to the members.

Have you seen the TV commercial that has a couple on the beach. The guy says, remember the lake home? With a slight adjustment in you portfolio we might be able to swing it!The guy on the beach turns out to be the personal finance advisor. Hint: One investor at a time, well it's not TSP!

TSP, a lot of people feel is a good system, I agree partially, the system is good; good funds, good stats, but management of the accounts is left up to the individual member investors. These members are soldiers, and government workers, who for the most part are not financial experts. This is the drawback of the system.

Some folks say that this is the system of the future. Some say that financial advice would be too much of a liability, or it would cost to much!

The solution: We must stay informed and take charge of our savings plan. Whether one choses to buy and hold, or another choses to time the markets, whatever, the bottom line, is that it is our responsibility.

I like the system and how it allows me to take direct control of what I do.

I just wish that transfers would be processed more expeditiously.

A real-time ticker for the funds would be nice, too... and the whole New Orleans thing and the not being able to access accounts for darn near a week is just silly.