Thread: NSurf9 Account Talk

What happened to "Sell in May and go away - come back in Sept/October. At the beginning of this bull rush, the market had shifted into 2nd gear, when I had just started my engine. The question is how much of a correction will occur, and when.

Thus far, I survived the May 2006 drop, the subsequent head-fakes, false bottoms and tops, and seemingly endless record highs - and modestly profited. At times, the equity markets seems to be creating thin-ice steps, where there were none before, to more solid ones. Where will the climbing-a-wall-of-worry end - and it will! - eventually.

In the meantime, it day-by-day reassessment. I'm keeping my finger in the wind, eyes on the ball, and ears on tracks (e.g. US Fed, corporate earnings report, economic events, oil prices, US dollar, middle-east, Bush, stochastic elasticity, May/October cycle, the unforseen). Hopefully, I won't be distracted or faked-out - and, can run like heck to "G" before it does.

What happened to "Sell in May and go away - come back in Sept/October. At the beginning of this bull rush, the market had shifted into 2nd gear, when I had just started my engine. The question is how much of a correction will occur, and when.

Thus far, I survived the May 2006 drop, the subsequent head-fakes, false bottoms and tops, and seemingly endless record highs - and modestly profited. At times, the equity markets seems to be creating thin-ice steps, where there were none before, to more solid ones. Where will the climbing-a-wall-of-worry end - and it will! - eventually.

In the meantime, it day-by-day reassessment. I'm keeping my finger in the wind, eyes on the ball, and ears on tracks (e.g. US Fed, corporate earnings report, economic events, oil prices, US dollar, middle-east, Bush, stochastic elasticity, May/October cycle, the unforseen). Hopefully, I won't be distracted or faked-out - and, can run like heck to "G" before it does.

Full House 3 Factors Sell - I'm looking for a bounce, but ready to run to "G".

Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.


Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'


Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.

"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.

The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.

"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.

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The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."

Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.

I am now feeling the chilling effect of the new TSP transfer limits. That is, trying to save interfund transfers (ITFs), so as not to be penalized into submitting only paper IFT requests. In these volital markets - nible-ness is key. The new limits and threats of penality are keeping me in too long and making me too apprehensive to try and capitalized on opportunities.

SEPARATE NOTE RE: BIRTCHTREE - - "Nine-to-One Signal"

An even more bullish signal, according to Zweig, is when two "Nine to One Up Days" take place within a short period of time -- something he called a "Double Nine-to-One" signal. It is this more bullish signal that got triggered on Tuesday: March 11, one week ago, was a Nine-to-One Up Day, and so was Tuesday, when up volume constituted more than 95% of the combined volume of both rising and falling stocks.

It seems that the bottom(s) may be beginning to register - - unless the whole machine breaks.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...cMostCommented

nsurf9,

Are you going to post your moves in this thread when you make them? It appears you have done an excellent job this year. Well done!

Originally Posted by nsurf9

I am now feeling the chilling effect of the new TSP transfer limits. That is, trying to save interfund transfers (ITFs), so as not to be penalized into submitting only paper IFT requests. In these volital markets - nible-ness is key. The new limits and threats of penality are keeping me in too long and making me too apprehensive to try and capitalized on opportunities.

Nsurf9,
See thread below, post #646
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread...582#post156582

Currently I don't have standing to file a lawsuit - so far I've held to their "requested" 3/mo limit (hurts bigtime). My point is, as yet I haven't gotten the certified letter/electronic block. Somebody that has, MUST go for a legal challenge!!
VR

Ditto. You seem to have a knack for these volitile times and I salute you. I sincerely hope you continue to post your moves in the Tracker and hopefully here in your Account Talk. If you could post them soon enough so other people would have time to follow your moves in their TSP accounts that would be icing on the cake (assuming you don't mind someone following your moves ).

It is often difficult for me to get to a IFT decision before close to 12:00 EST.

Yesterday, however, I did notice EDIT button at the automatic tracking allocation screen that may allow us all to show interim post postions, (re-edit posts) and then making it final before ~12:05pm.

Lately, however, I must warn you that my timing is getting messed-up with the TSP Board chilling effect.

This is the first time I've noticed your Thread my friend but you have made a huge impression on me. CONGRATULATOINS!! on being NUMBER ONE - especially this year.


Pogo and Griffin have more than proved themselves in the past but this year has hit them hard. I personally am more like Birch and could care less where I presently stand - but yet I'm confident I'll end the year well.

Anyway - you are in First Place - keep up the good work.

Hessian, I have received a notice of a certified letter from "TSP fund." I have not signed for it, thus, I don't have actual notice of what it says. TSP does continue to accept my IFTs, so far.

As to standing - it would seem that any TSP member, and the TSP cousel voice people, should already have standing enough to bring an Emergency Temporary Injunction and stay the TSP Board's proposed limit policy until a full hearing on the facts and merits of the parties can be heard.

The balance of burden in this case is: TSP management saves a few bucks ($20), the members, on the other hand, loose the opportunity to gain thousands ($10K, a month) for the same few bucks. I would gladly pay for the ablity.

You would think that the Government would realize the potential benefit for itself and its often under-paid employees.

Steadygain - Thanks.

nsurf9